1. Modeling and Data Assimilation in Support of ACE Watson Gregg NASA/GSFC/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Supporting data and publications: Google gmao, click Research, then Ocean Biology Modeling (http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/oceanbiology)

2. Radiative Model (OASIM) Circulation Model (Poseidon) Biogeochemical Processes Model Winds SST Layer DepthsIOP E d (λ) E s (λ) Sea Ice NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) Winds, ozone, relative humidity, pressure, precip. water, clouds (cover, τ c ), aerosols ( τ a, ω a, asym) Dust (Fe) Advection-diffusion Temperature, Layer Depths E d (λ) E s (λ) Chlorophyll, Phytoplankton Groups Primary Production Nutrients DOC, DIC, pCO 2, FCO 2 Spectral Irradiance/Radiance Outputs: Global model grid: domain: 84  S to 72  N 1.25  lon., 2/3  lat. 14 layers atm pCO 2

3. Diatoms Biogeochemical Processes Model Ecosystem Component Chloro- phytes Cyano- bacteria Cocco- lithophores Si NO 3 NH 4 Herbivores N/C Detritus Fe Silica Detritus Phytoplankton Nutrients Iron Detritus

4. N/C Detritus Herbivores Phyto- plankton Dissolved Organic Carbon Dissolved Inorganic Carbon pCO2 (water) pCO2 (air) Winds, Surface pressure Biogeochemical Processes Model Carbon Component

5. Validation VariableGlobal Difference %Correlation over Basins Nitrate18.9%0.905 P<0.05 AmmoniaNot testedNot tested Silica5.4%0.952 P<0.05 Dissolved Iron45%0.933 P<0.05 Diatoms15.5%0.850 P<0.05 Chlorophytes-16.2%0.020 NS Cyanobacteria7.9%0.970 P<0.05 Coccolithophores-2.6%0.700 P<0.05 Total Chlorophyll vs In situ-17.1%0.787 P<0.05 vs SeaWiFS-8.0%0.618 P<0.05 vs Aqua1.1%0.469 NS HerbivoresNot testedNot tested DetritusNot testedNot tested Diss. Inorganic Carbon0.1%0.972 P<0.05 pCO20.0%0.765 P<0.05 Air-sea carbon flux3.1%0.741 P<0.05

6. Ozone Molecules, aerosols Oxygen Water vaporCO 2 air sea EdEd EsEs (1 -  ) EdEd EsEs EdEd EsEs EuEu  E d, E s LwNLwN Total Surface Irradiance (direct+diffuse; spectrally integrated; clear/cloudy): bias=1.6 W m -2 (0.8%) RMS=20.1 W m -2 (11%) r=0.89 (P<0.05) OASIM Surface Clear Sky Spectral Irradiance (PAR wavelengths): RMS=6.6% Integrated PAR: RMS=5.1%

7. 450 475500600625650675 a( λ ), b b ( λ ) 525550575700350375400425 Chlorophyll components: diatoms chlorophytes cyanobacteria coccolithophores CDOM water a w ( λ ), b bw ( λ ) a CDOM ( λ ) a p ( λ ), b bp ( λ ) OASIM Upwelling Irradiance (Forward Model) detritus a d ( λ ), b bd (λ) OASIM In-water Radiative Model

8. mW cm -2 um -1 sr -1 Modeling Water-Leaving Radiances (with assimilated chlorophyll) Tropical Rivers (CDOM) Cocco- lithophores

9. Data Assimilation In ocean biology, Two Classes: Variational (e.g., adjoint, 4DVar) Sequential (e.g., Kalman Filter) We use Sequential Methodologies, Conditional Relaxation Analysis Method Ensemble Kalman Filter Routinely assimilating SeaWiFS and Aqua Chlorophyll Data

10. Bias Uncertainty N SeaWiFS -1.3% 32.7%2086 Free-run Model-1.4% 61.8%4465 Assimilation Model 0.1% 33.4%4465 vs. In Situ Data mg m -3

11. Potential Support for ACE Pre-LaunchObserving Simulation System Experiments (OSSE’s) GMAO signature Previously done for SeaWiFS e.g., orbit selection, sampling strategy (targeted sampling), band selection, potential algorithm effectiveness, various aspects of instrument design Development of a globally representative, dynamic simulated data set Post-LaunchData Assimilation: Reasonableness of derived products in the context of an interdependent set of variables Removal of Sampling Biases caused by clouds, aerosols, low light, others