1. DSWG - June 25, 2014 2013 Four-CP Response for Transmission- and Distribution- Connected ESIIDs in ERCOT Competitive Area Carl L Raish

2. 2 4 CP Response Methodology  Analysis was limited to ESIIDs in competitive ERCOT areas with ‘BUSIDRRQ’ profile types  Transmission charges are based on ESIID-specific load during CP intervals  ESIIDs classified by connection at transmission or distribution voltage level  Classified days as CP Days, Near-CP Days and Non-CP Days  Near-CP days were iteratively determined  Started with 12 possible days  Removed days from list if no response detected for the date  Ended up with 7 Near-CP days  Non-CP days were all remaining non-holiday weekdays (June 1 – Sep 30)  Classified ESIIDs based on Weather Sensitivity and Load Factor  Weather sensitivity (R 2 for week-day use vs average temperature >= 0.6)  Load Factor based on week-day afternoon usage (1:00 PM – 6:00 PM)  High LF > 0.85  Medium LF > 0.60  Low LF ≤ 0.60

3. 3 4 CP Response Methodology (continued)  ESIIDs were classified into three response categories based on how they modified usage on CP and Near-CP days  Reduced Day Use -- ESIIDs that lowered usage from 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM) on CP/Near-CP days.  Reduced CP Hour Use -- ESIID that lowered usage during 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM on CP/Near-CP days (but did not reduce day use).  Did not respond – All remaining ESIIDS

4. 4 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) Response Type Load Factor Category HighMediumLowTotal Reduce Day Use 22202668 Reduce Peak Hour Use 35281881 Non-Respond1044818170 Total1619662319 Number of Transmission ESIIDs by Response Type

5. 5 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) Response Type Load Factor Category HighMediumLowWS * Total Reduce Day Use 313768861,293 Reduce Peak Hour Use 2066435781,427 Non-Respond2,4563,0468311,6617,994 Total2,6934,0652,2951,66110,714 Number of Distribution ESIIDs by Response Type * WS response and type needs additional analysis

6. 6 4 CP Response Methodology (continued)  Baselines were created at the ESIID-level using Non-CP days (May 1 – Sep 30).  Average of 10 days before and 10 days after the CP/Near-CP day.  Baselines were aggregated in groups by response type and load factor category  WS baseline was ERS Regression baseline  Scalar day-of-adjustment applied at the aggregated group level.  Day-of-adjustment window: 0:15 AM – 1:00 PM  Baseline energy for the adjustment window was scaled to the actual energy for the CP/Near-CP day  No scalar adjustment was applied to the group with ‘day-use’ response  Adjusted and unadjusted baselines are shown on graphs for non-responding ESIIDs  In general these ESIIDs had actual use higher than the baseline on CP/Near-CP days than the unadjusted baseline  If these ESIIDs are included in the overall class performance, their increased usage would offset reductions by the remaining ESIIDs

7. 7 4 CP Response Methodology (continued)  September 3, 2013 CP day special handling  Load shapes were different … probably related to being the day following the Labor Day holiday.  Tables and graphs show reductions for baselines with and without day-of- adjustment  Reductions based on scalar adjusted baselines reflect the actual load reduction on that day  Reductions based on unadjusted baselines are probably closer to reductions on more normal CP days.

8. 8 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

9. 9 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

10. 10 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs Largest Combined Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 7

11. 11 Identify Near-CP Days – June 2013 4CP @ IE 17:00 Near-CP w/ response

12. 12 Identify Near-CP Days – July 2013 4CP @ IE 17:00 Near-CP w/ response Near-CP no response

13. 13 Identify Near-CP Days – August 2013 4CP @ IE 17:00 Near-CP w/ response Near-CP no response

14. 14 Identify Near-CP Days – September 2013 4CP @ IE 16:45 Near-CP no response Note: Sep 1, 2013 Sunday, Sep 2 Labor Day

15. 15 15-Minute Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013 Largest Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 1 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

16. 16 15-Minute Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013 Largest Summer 2013 reduction occurred on June 28 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

17. 17 15-Minute Reductions on Near CP Days - 2013 Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

18. 18 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

19. 19 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

20. 20 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs Largest Combined Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 7

21. 21 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

22. 22 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

23. 23 Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near CP Days - 2013 Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

24. 24 Reduction Percent by Load Factor - Transmission

25. 25 Reduction Percent by Load Factor - Distribution

26. 26 Percent Reduction by Load Factor - Transmission

27. 27 Percent Reduction by Load Factor - Distribution

28. 28 June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

29. 29 June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

30. 30 June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

31. 31 July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

32. 32 July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

33. 33 July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

34. 34 August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

35. 35 August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

36. 36 August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

37. 37 September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

38. 38 September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

39. 39 September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

40. 40 June CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

41. 41 June CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

42. 42 July CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

43. 43 July CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

44. 44 August CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

45. 45 August CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

46. 46 September CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

47. 47 September CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

48. 48 ON OFF Questions? craish@ercot.comcraish@ercot.com512/248-3876