1. Lake Superior Regulation Hydroclimate needs January 11, 2011

2. AM HC Workshop Outcome  Identified six specific tasks for Hydroclimate TWG 1.Operational forecast to use within the plan 2.Stochastic sequence of contemporary supplies 3.Multiple GCM/RCM runs to get at  T  P and perturb the historical NBS based on these 4.Stochastic sequence with climate change 5.Historic (including paleo) analysis of variability 6.Plain spoken narrative on natural climate phenomena and climate change

3. Overview Study Task  Lake Superior Regulation  St. Clair R. Restoration  Multi-lake regulation  Non-structural adaptive management Hydroclimate Product  NBS sequences (upper lakes) ◦ Recorded, stochastic, GCM-RCM, paleo  NBS forecasts  Recorded supply sequence  Plausible NBS sequences (GL-SLR)  ditto

4.  Soo Winter flow capacity/ risk of ice jams ◦Ice study of rapids and lower St Marys  Soo structures flow control at low levels ◦Hydraulic analysis of upper St Marys at Soo  Flow changes in the rapids – gate operations  Peaking and ponding: implications in setting monthly flows  Planning objectives  Performance indicators and SVM Plan Formulation Issues

5.  Residual NBS 1900-2008  Stochastic sequences of contemporary supplies (Laura, Ousmane+Taha)  Stochastic sequences transformed by climate change (Ousmane+Taha)  GCM-RCM sequences (Murray,Brent,Frank Seglenieks)  1860-1899 (Frank Quinn)  Paleo sequences? (Casey)  Upper Lakes only Hydrologic scenarios for plan development & evaluation

6.  monthly to seasonal forecasting (Vincent, Taha)  Other hydrologic methods (AHPS etc.)  Skilled?  Useful? Hydrologic Forecasts for Lake Superior Regulation

7.  77A aims to balance Superior and MH levels  Forecasts = Climatology i.e. Assumes 50% exceedence NBS for each month on upper lakes  Use forecast months to moderate month to month flow change and balancing  If high levels use 5% exceedence, if low levels use 95% exceedence in balancing forecast Forecasts in Plan 1977A