1. Quantifying Pan-Arctic Change Jim Overland 1 Nancy Soreide 1 Muyin Wang 2 Mick Spillane 2 1.PMEL/NOAA, 2. JISAO/UW Seattle,Washington

2. Reconstructed annual temperature (green) for arctic zone: 65-90N using tree-ring width data from 12 sites near circumpolar treeline and three sites at northern, elevational treeline. By G. Jacoby, Lamont- Doherty Earth Observatory Composite time series of surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1961-90 for the region poleward of 62 o N. By I. Polyakov, IARC. Arctic Annual Temperature

3. ARCTIC CHANGES OVER THE LAST 35 YEARS Marine mammals Barents Sea Cod Greenland Shrimp N. American Caribou Norway Deer Arctic Sea Level Pressure Sea Ice Area Snow Area Tundra Area Stratosphere Temperature Winter Europe Temperatures Spring Alaska Temperature Permafrost temperature Atlantic Water in Arctic Growing Seasons

4. Index of Persistence of the Greening Trend North of 30 o N for the Period 1982-99 Zhou L., et al, 1999: J. Geo. Res., Climate and Vegetation Research Group, Boston University

5. Monthly Mean Temperature Anomalies for March During 1990s at 200 hPa based on TOVS Path-P dataset

6. Thompson, et al. 2001 Difference In Daily Mean Surface Temperature Anomalies (AO) winters)

8. Polyakov & Johnson,2000 Vorticity Index Stott, 2001 Global Mean SAT Anomaly Venegas & Mysak, 2000 Ice Anomaly CHANGE DETECTION

9. http://www.unaami.noaa.gov

10. Figure from Mick about Unaami EOF 1

11. Wintertime Aleutian Low Sea Level Pressure 50 year cycle plus “long memory-multiprocess” behavior

12. Coccolithophorid Bloom on the Eastern Bering Sea Shelf During the Anomalous Summer of 1997

13. Bering Sea Pollock Year Class

14. Gulf of Alaska Climate Indices and andShrimp-TrawlCatches(Biomass) (Anderson and Piatt, 1999) NPPI BC Coastal SST GOA Air Temp GOA Water Temp 250m Normalized Anomaly Proportion of total catch 1953 1956 1959196219651968197119741977198019831986198919921995 ShrimpGadidFlatfishOther 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

15. CONCLUSIONS Large Arctic temperature changes over last 100- 300 years Need change detection protocol Strong covariability of atmosphere/sea- ice/terrestrial/biology over last 35 years CHANGE DETECTIONCHANGE DETECTION: Use multivariate analysis but based on biocomplexity (nonlinear) concepts