1. World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend

2. Oil Price 1.A play 2.Hubbert curve 3.Technology 4.Examples 5.Lambda Hubbert Curve 6.Lambda Hubbert Change 7.Price Forecast

3. 1. A Play

4. What is this?

5. This is Haynesville It is the number of rigs

6. Why is the rig count going down? 1) Low natural gas price 2) Technology 3) Depletion

7. This suggests: Shale can have quick peaks and declines

8. 2. Hubbert Hubbert is a trend

9. Time Discovery, Production T0T0 T1T1 T2T2 Discovery Hubbert Curve Production Hubbert Curve Discovery and Production

10. US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005

11. CQD CQ Time CQD CQ URR 0 0 Hubbert Curve Cumulative Hubbert Curve Quadratic Hubbert Curve

12. Cumulative Production Hubbert Curve Based on Geological MAXIMUM Supply 0 URR Quadratic Hubbert Curve

13. US Lower 48 Production versus cumulative production, up to 2005

14. US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005

15. 3. Technology

16. ?

18. US Technology 2005

19. 4. Examples Examples of Hubbert and Technology

20. What is this?

21. It is the US

22. This is the US on Steroids

23. What is this?

24. This is the Soviet Union

25. This is the Soviet Union on Steroids

26. 5. Lambda Hubbert Risk aversion

27. Cumulative Production Hubbert Curve Based on Geological MAXIMUM Supply 0 URR Quadratic Hubbert Curve

28. Cumulative Production Hubbert Curve Based on Geological Maximum Supply 0 URR Path of Actual Oil Production Paths of potential oil production expansion Quadratic Hubbert Curve

29. Venezuela and US 2005 Indexed Hubbert Curve

30. World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

31. World Normal and Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

32. World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

33. Normal Quadratic Hubbert Curve Equation Lambda Hubbert Curve Equation QP = b 1 * CQP + b 2 * CQP 1+λ

34. World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

36. World Lambda Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012

38. 6. Lambda Hubbert Change Forecast

47. 7. Price Forecasts Consolidating TRENDS

52. Conclusion 1.Hubbert, Hubbert, Hubbert. 2.Lambda Hubbert 3.Multi-cycle Lambda Hubbert 4.Looking at history shows: 2 nd cycles often short

53. 5.World economy is hanging in the balance 6.A price shock can come at any time We are still in an Energy Crisis