1. 1 What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? The TPB Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Ronald F. Kirby Director, COG Department of Transportation Planning Seminar on Transit-Oriented Development The Dulles Area Transportation Association September 28, 2005

2. 2 The Washington Region  Approximately 3,000 square miles  Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs  The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the TPB planning area.

3. 3 n A policy framework guiding the region’s transportation investments in the 21st century. n Goals include: Promoting activity centers Increasing transit use Reducing driving The TPB Vision Approved in 1998

4. 4 Intended to be focal points for jobs and housing, and nodes for transportation linkages. Regional Activity Centers

5. 5 In 2000, the TPB recognized that in many respects, the region’s long-range transportation plan was falling short of the Vision...

6. 6 Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for Maintenance Little money is available for new transportation projects 23% 77% New Roads and Transit* Operations & Preservation* * Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

7. 7 The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace with Growth 2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million 2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

8. 8 Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and Go Evening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030 Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph) 2000 2030

9. 9 Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be Packed Morning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030 Congested Highly Congested 20002030

10. 10 How can we move closer to the Vision? In 2000, the TPB initiated a study to investigate scenarios that might better meet the objectives of the Vision:  Promoting activity centers  Increasing transit use  Reducing driving

11. 11 Study of “What If” Scenarios  What if job and housing growth were shifted? What if new roads or transit were built?  How would 2030 travel conditions change?  Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.”

12. 12 Households in 2000 Growth by 2010 Growth by 2030 Affected by scenarios 2030 Households 72% 13% 15% Underway or in the pipeline Already in place  The study only shifted anticipated growth between 2010 and 2030  Therefore the scenarios shift a relatively small percentage of the total jobs and households anticipated for 2030 Some Ground Rules

13. 13 Developing the Scenarios: What are key issues related to land use and transportation?

14. 14 Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania Forecast Job Growth Forecast Household Growth Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands) Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

15. 15 Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs  Inner jurisdictions – most job growth  Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth The average commute is more than 30 minutes.

16. 16 Issue #3: East-West Divide Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000 A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western parts of the region

17. 17 Issue #3: East-West Divide West-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour Average Commute Time Morning Rush Hour Up to 30 minutes Up to 40 minutes Over 40 minutes

18. 18 Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas Household Growth 2010 to 2030 Inside Transit Station Areas Outside Transit Station Areas Employment Growth 2010 to 2030 30% 70% 20% 80%

19. 19 Addressing the issues: What if we shifted job and household growth?

20. 20 What if people lived and worked closer to transit? Metro Rail Commuter Rail Bus Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs “Transit Oriented Development” Scenario  Locate job and household growth around transit stations

21. 21 Land around existing transit would be better used… Plus more jobs and housing would be clustered around future transit lines, like Rail to Tysons and to Dulles…

22. 22 How would 2030 travel conditions change? Compared to baseline forecasts for 2030 Severe AM Peak Period Congestion Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Capita Transit Trips “Transit Oriented Development” Scenario

23. 23 Under this scenario, driving would decrease by 1.2 million vehicle miles per day... The equivalent of 48 trips around the Earth

24. 24 What if more people who worked here lived here? VA WV Balt. “More Households” Scenario  Increase household growth to balance forecast job growth  Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters” Regional Activity Cluster Increase household growth by 200,000

25. 25 Under this scenario, parts of Tysons Corner would have three times more housing… With densities like this…

26. 26 How would 2030 travel conditions change? Compared to baseline forecasts for 2030 Severe AM Peak Period Congestion Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Capita Transit Trips “Higher Households” Scenario

27. 27 Local impacts would be even bigger, in many places. That’s roughly 8,000 fewer trips per day… Nearly enough drivers to fill half the seats in the MCI Center. The number of automobile trips to Tysons Corner would decrease 20 percent under the Higher Households Scenario.

28. 28 Additional scenarios under study will look at changing both land use AND transportation.

29. 29 What if more people lived near transit, and there was more transit? “Transit Oriented Development” Plus More Transit  Locate job and household growth around transit  Expand Metrorail, commuter rail, bus rapid transit and light rail

30. 30 “Transit Oriented Development” Plus More Transit Northern Virginia Elements  This scenario includes Rail to Centreville  It also includes VRE to Haymarket and to Fauquier County

31. 31 What if we developed a network of high occupancy/toll (HOT) lanes?

32. 32 What do the scenarios tell us?  Moving people closer to jobs:  Increases transit use  Decreases driving and congestion  At least two ways to move people closer to jobs have dramatic impacts: Increasing household growth in the region Transit-oriented development

33. 33 For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board: (202) 962-3200 TPBPublicComment@mwcog.org www.mwcog.org/transportation