1. 1 MLDC – Round 2 John Baker (NASA/GSFC) For the MLDC Task Force- K. A. Arnaud, S. Babak, J. B., M. J. Benacquista, N. J. Cornish, C. Cutler, L. S. Finn, S. L. Larson, E. Porter, B. S. Sathyaprakash, M. Vallisneri, A. Vecchio, J-Y. Vinet LIST MLDC F2F-Potsdam December 16, 2006

2. 2 MLDC Round 2 overview Objective: Global LISA-data analysis –LISA will see many types of sources, overlapping in time and/or freq. –Round 1 has: Established standards, codes, tools and experience for measuring several source classes independently Provided a demonstration of readiness for data analysis on a source-by- source basis. –Round 2 will: Utilize standards, codes, tools and experience from Round 1. Establish experience in integrated global analysis, including full-scale galactic model. Demonstrate readiness for integrated global analysis.

3. 3 Round 2 Overview Challenge 2.1 - Galactic Foreground –The galaxy: a synthesized population of galactic binaries –~ 30 Million sources Challenge 2.2 – “The Whole Enchilada” –Synthesized population of galactic binaries –Verification binaries –Between 4 to 6 signals from MBHBs –5 EMRI signals LISA Model –2 years data –Otherwise identical to Round 1

4. 4 MLDC Round 2 Challenge Round 2 Resources –Data sets released on AstroGravS website: http://astrogravs.nasa.gov/docs/mldchttp://astrogravs.nasa.gov/docs/mldc Each challenge includes –A training data set with an answer key –A blind challenge data set –Updated MLDC Challenge 2 specification document –Helpful Codes Available Available at sourceforge http://svn.sourceforge.net/viewvc/lisatools/ http://svn.sourceforge.net/viewvc/lisatools/ Source/Simulator codes largely unmodified from Round 1 Pipeline for regenerating Round 2-like data sets will be available New FastGalaxy code for Galaxy realization (executable only) The code to be used for evaluation/analysis will be available ~April-May

5. 5 Round 2 Sources Galactic Binaries  Galaxy –Galaxy Model Base galaxy model from Gijs Nelemans (Nelemans, Yungelsen, Zwart, 2001) Partly randomized –Orientation –Phase –Small frequency perturbations –Plus 20 Verification binaries (2.2) 5 real (Nelemans), 15 invented Same as Round :. Approximate parameters provided –Each binary Same as Round 1: Non-chirping (df/dt=0)

6. 6 Round 2 Sources SMBH Binaries –Model (same as Round 1) Non-spinning Restricted 2PN waveforms Tapered near merger. –Challenge 2.2 signals will include A very loud (SNR ~ 2000) signal –in-spiral “in band” (min 1 week above 0.1 mHz) –coalescing T=3+/- 1 month after the beginning of data A moderate-to-low SNR (~ 20) signal –Coalescence 1-2 months after end of data (T=25—26 mo.) –Challenge 2.2 signals may also include (choose 2—4 ) A signal with SNR ~ 1000, T=6—24 mo. A signal with SNR ~ 200, T=6—24 mo. A signal with SNR ~ 100, T=18—21 mo. A low signal with SNR ~ 10, T=27—28 mo.

7. 7 Round 2 Sources EMRIs –1.3 (Full-year challenge: Ends concurrently with Round 2) Barack-Cutler “Kludge”-waveform (code provided) 5 Examples with 30 < SNR < 100 Parameters –SMBH mass : 0.95 < M / (10 6 M Sun ) < 1.05 –SMBH spin: 0.5 < a/m < 0.7 –Captured mass: 9.5 < M / M Sun < 10.5 –Eccentricity: 0.15 < e < 0.25 –Duration: 1 < d < 2 years –2.2 Same as parameters as 1.3, but: –2 with masses near 10^6 solar mass –2 with masses near 5x10^6 solar mass –1 with mass near 10^7 solar mass

8. 8 MLDC Round 2 Draft Data

9. 9 Results evaluation and reporting Assessment plan –Stronger validation objective than Round 1: More formal process evaluation process. Analysis plan/code predetermined Returned results should meet protocol –To be based on Round 1 experience. –New issues: Global assessment Source-by-source assessment for partial fits (e.g. SMBH only) –Galactic Binary focus zones: Four narrow frequency bands near 0.3, 1, 3, and 6 mHz –Assessment codes: Available before challenge end Groups can self-check: correct conventions, formats, etc Reporting –Presentation at Amaldi meeting in July –Peer-review publication submitted shortly thereafter.

10. 10 Future Challenge Rounds Planned through 2008 Evolving challenge content plan: –http://www.tapir.caltech.edu/dokuwiki/listwg1b:challenges3http://www.tapir.caltech.edu/dokuwiki/listwg1b:challenges3 New sources classes –Bursts –Stochastic backgrounds Increased source model realism –MBHB with NR-inspired merger-ringdowns, and spins –Chirping galactic binaries –Broader class of EMRIs Increased noise realism –Data gaps –Non-gaussianity –Non-stationarity

11. 11 Summary MLDC Round 2 objective: Global data analysis Sources: Galaxy of binaries, 4-6 SMBHs, 5 EMRIs Timeline: –Jan 8: Data Sets released –Jan: Challenge 2 document –April-May: Assessment code complete/released –June 15: Results returned –July: Presentation at Amaldi meeting –~August: results submitted for publication. Future Challenge rounds to follow You are invited to participate: –For more information… http://astrogravs.nasa.gov: http://www.tapir.caltech.edu/dokuwiki/listwg1b:home