1. © Crown copyright Met Office Report to 22 nd NAEDEX Meeting Roger Saunders + many others, Met Office, Exeter

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Met Office Operational Models : 2009  Global ~40km ~70Level  North Atlantic/Europe 12km ~38level  UK 4km(1.5km) ~70Level  Re-locatable Defence and Civilian  Ensemble (global & regional) at half horizontal resolution 25 members each  Data assimilation 4DVar, 6 hour window for global and regional models

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Planned NWP model changes 20092010201120122013 Global40km25km 18km 70 levels 100 levels N. Atl Europe 12km 70 levels ?? UK1.5km ~0.8km 70 levels 100 levels Specialist0.25km 100 levels

4. © Crown copyright Met Office How we get the data Global US data Local reception EUMETCASTGlobal Networks RMDCN Washington

5. © Crown copyright Met Office RARS stations, Dec 2009 = New in 2009 Honolulu, Miami, St Denis, Casey EARS Asia Pacific RARS South American RARS Networks:

6. © Crown copyright Met Office RARS monitoring RARS-global consistency monitored routinely See www.nwpsaf.orgwww.nwpsaf.org Covers AMSU, HIRS and MHS NOAA-19 introduced in 2009, in addition to NOAA-15, 16, 17, 18 and MetOp Plans for EARS-IASI Small differences due to remapping AMSU-A chan 15 Local-Global (K)

7. © Crown copyright Met Office Observations assimilated Observation groupObservation Sub-groupItems usedDaily extracted% used in assimilation Ground-based vertical profiles TEMP PILOT PROFILER T, V, RH processed to model layer average As TEMP, but V only 1350 800 9500 95, 94, 55 92 37 Satellite-based vertical profiles METOP-A NOAA-15/16/18/19, Aqua AIRS, IASI, HIRS, AMSU-A/B, MHS Radio-occultation COSMIC, GRAS Radiances directly assimilated with channel selection dependent on surface instrument and cloudiness. Profiles of refractive index ATOVS:3,000,000 IASI: 324,00 AIRS:324,000 COSMIC: 1600 GRAS: 600 CHAMP+Grace: 400 5 4 60 70 65 Aircraft Manual AIREPS Automated AMDARS TAMDARS T, V as reported with duplicate checking and blacklist 4000 210,000 25,000 80, 75 24, 24 22, 17 Satellite atmospheric motion vectors GOES 11,12 BUFR Meteosat 7, 9 BUFR MTSAT BUFR Terra/Aqua MODIS AVHRR polar AMVs IR, WV IR, VIS, WV IR, WV, clear sky WV IR 170000 540000 80000 170000 25000 5363453634 Satellite-based surface winds METOP ASCAT CORIOLIS WINDSAT ERS-2 scatt KNMI retrievals NRL winds 1,000,000 1,600,000 120,000 412412 Ground-based surface Land SYNOP SHIP Fixed Buoy Drifting BUOY Pressure only (processed to model surface),V,T,RH P,V,T,RH P,V,T P 58000 4500 6000 13500 95, 83, 86, 79 90, 87, 90, 88 84, 79, 80 87

8. © Crown copyright Met Office Satellite delays May 2007 Dec 2009

9. © Crown copyright Met Office AIRS delays improved since July Mean Mode Min

10. © Crown copyright Met Office Variable Canadian AMDARs December 2008 – 780,000 April 2009 – 520,000 July 2009 – 260,000 (Frame relay problems?) Sept 2009 – 540,000 November 2009 – 485,000 Reduction of 38% over year!

11. © Crown copyright Met Office Recent changes to usage of data Migration from NEC to IBM July 09 Windsat winds assimilated from Nov 08 Clear sky Meteosat radiances in regional model Nov 08 Cloud affected AIRS radiances Nov 08 NESDIS snow cover operational Nov 08 Loss of DMSP F-13 SSM/I Nov 09 Loss of SeaWinds Quikscat Nov 09

12. © Crown copyright Met Office Impact of loss of QuickScat/SSM/I

13. © Crown copyright Met Office Polar AMVs direct broadcast Available from Tromsø, McMurdo Station, Sodankyla, Fairbanks, Barrow and Rothera – example coverage for 1200 UTC on 19 Nov 2009 shown below.

14. © Crown copyright Met Office Polar AMVs direct broadcast Improved timeliness of ~100 minutes compared to conventional polar winds. More data can be used in short cut-off forecast cycles

15. © Crown copyright Met Office Polar AMVs direct broadcast Similar quality to conventional polar AMVs – better in some cases (DB AVHRR uses 2 km resolution).

16. © Crown copyright Met Office Polar AMVs NOAA-19 NOAA-19 AMVs showed a low height bias of ~40 hPa – CIMSS have now fixed the problem (see plot on right). Overall have similar quality to other AVHRR winds. August 2009 1-16 November 2009

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Polar AMVs NESDIS MODIS slow winds Very slow winds (< 1m/s) are now being removed from the NESDIS MODIS dataset following a fix implemented on 27 October 2009. October 20091-11 November 2009

18. © Crown copyright Met Office Geostationary AMVs Inversion problem Fast speed bias linked to high height bias in inversion regions. Fix has been developed for GOES-R, but not yet available in operational product.

19. © Crown copyright Met Office Europe Groundbased GPS coverage Observations from E-GVAP near real- time GPS network very high time resolution - often several per hour - potentially useful in 4D-Var At the Met Office: assimilating ZTD into regional (12 km) and UK (4 km) models assimilating one per hour in 4D-Var small positive impacts on cloud, surface temperature, visibility and precipitation operational since March 2007

20. © Crown copyright Met Office NOAA GPS sites These would be useful data for NWP

21. © Crown copyright Met Office Water anomalies: 9 to 11 July 2009 Control run: top 10cm soil moisture anomalyASCAT surface soil wetness anomaly Test run: top 10cm soil moisture anomalyRiver Flow anomaly

22. © Crown copyright Met Office Tropics: RMS errors in screen T and RH Screen Relative Humidity Control Test with ASCAT soil wetness assimilation Screen Temperature

23. © Crown copyright Met Office GOES-S. America Requirement for hourly data (Vis/IR)

24. © Crown copyright Met Office Work in progress….. Short term.. Use direct broadcast polar AMVs from Sodankylä, Fairbanks, Barrow and Rothera Also interested in hourly GOES AMVs and developments and information on AMV errors / representativeness being developed as part of GOES-R project Add more IASI channels (incl water vapour channels) Consider use of SSM/I on F-15? Extend use of SSMIS to window/water vapour/mesospheric channels and F-18 Longer term…. AMSR-E precipitation Scatterometer soil moisture data assimilated ADM doppler lidar winds preparations underway NPP preparations

25. © Crown copyright Met Office Questions and answers