1. Weather and Climate How They Affect Agriculture in Southern Ontario D C McKay Presentation to Perth Soil and Crop Association July 2, 2015

2. Outline  Difference Between Weather and Climate  The Climate Change Debate  Climate Change Scenarios  Climate Impacts for Agriculture  Adaptation to Climate Change By Agriculture  Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Risks: A Case Study

3. Difference Between Weather and Climate

4. The Climate Change Debate

5. Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture

11. Climate Impacts for Agriculture

12. What we know from the present  Agricultural production takes place under a climate regime  Sufficient length for crop establishment, growth and maturity  Adequate heat units and precipitation to meet crop needs  Sufficient regularity from year to year so as to allow security of production

13. What we want to know for the future  Concerning climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effects  Potential changes in the length for crop establishment, growth and maturity  Potential changes in heat units and precipitation in growing season  Potential changes in year to year variability of agroclimatic conditions

14. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Last Frost in Spring (1961-1990)

15. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Last Frost in Spring (2040-2069) CGCM1 HadCM3

16. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Frost-Free Days (Changes) CGCM1 HadCM3

17. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Crop Heat Units (1961-1990)

18. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Crop Heat Units (2040-2069) CGCM1 HadCM3

19. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Crop Heat Units (Changes) CGCM1 HadCM3

20. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Precipitation Deficit/Surplus (1961-1990)

21. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Precipitation Deficit/Surplus (2040-2069) CGCM1 HadCM3

22. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Precipitation Deficit/Surplus (Changes) CGCM1 HadCM3

24. Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change

25. Regional Agricultural System

26. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Risks A Case Study Perth County Ontario

28. Dairy, 509 Hogs, 407

40. Case Study Conclusions  Stakeholder based approach provides insight into vulnerability of an agricultural system to climate change.  Shows need for assessments of probabilities of change in climate characteristics that are important to farmers  Need to group climate stimuli with non-climate forces such as economic, institutional, and social forces and local characteristics of the farm and farm family  Despite uncertainty of spatial and temporal patterns of future climate, Perth County farmers are aware of these climate and weather conditions most affecting their operations however in many cases they are unconcerned with climate change

41. References Round Table on Ontario-Specific Climate Change Data: OPS High-Resolution Regional Climate Modelling in Support of Adaptation. Ian Smith, Director, Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. Presented to ECO Climate Data Roundtable January 2015 Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture. Sam Gameda, Budong Quian, Andy Bootsma, Agriculture and Agr-Food Canada. Presented at Environmental Health National Program Soil, Water and Air Quality theme Agriculture and Agr-Food Canada, Ottawa Canada Reid et al, (2007) Vulnerability and adaptation to climate risks in Ontario agriculture. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 12: 609-637

42. QUESTIONS?