1. Is finding security holes a good idea? Presented By: Jeff Wheeler CSC 682

2. Outline Introduction Vulnerability Lifecycle Cost of Disclosure Finding rate to p r Rate of Vulnerability Discovery Sources of Error

3. Introduction Assertions 1.It is better for vulnerabilities to be found by good guys than bad guys. 2.Vulnerability finding increases total software quality

4. The life cycle of a vulnerability Introduction – the vulnerability is first released as part of the software. Discovery – the vulnerability is found. Private Exploitation – the vulnerability is exploited by the discoverer or a small group known to him or her. Disclosure – a description of the vulnerability is published.

5. The life cycle of a vulnerability Public Exploitation – the vulnerability is exploited by the general community of black hats. Fix Release – a patch or upgrade is released

6. The life cycle of a vulnerability These events do not occur strictly in this order. –Ex: software manufacture releases disclosure and fix

7. White Hat Discovery Discovery, Fix, and Disclosure: Best Case –The vulnerability is discovered by a researcher with no interest in exploiting it. –The researcher notifies the vendor –The vendor releases an advisory and a fix –Public exploitation begins at time of disclosure

8. White Hat Discovery

9. Black Hat Discovery Discovery, Fix, and Disclosure: Worst Case –The vulnerability is first discovered by someone with an interest in exploiting it. –Black hat community exploitation –Knowledgeable person identifies exploit being used against a system and notifies vendor –The vendor releases an advisory and a fix –Public exploitation begins at time of disclosure

10. Black Hat Discovery

11. WHD versus BHD WHD eliminates period of Private Exploitation C BHD – C WHD = C priv Are administrators more likely to patch if they know a vulnerability is being actively exploited? –Total number of vulnerable systems will decline more quickly, minimizing peak exploitation rate

12. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Disclosure Best Case –White hat discovery, never rediscovered or exploited Worst Case –Black hat discovery C priv + C pub

13. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Disclosure

14. From finding rate to p r Assumption: Vulnerability discovery is a stochastic process. –Overall rate of vulnerability discovery in a particular application is a good estimate for p r –P r upper bound current percent discovery

15. Determining the Vulnerability Discovery Rate Assumption: Software undergoes multiple releases –If we assume patches/releases do not introduce new bugs, only fixes, we can assume overall software quality increases with time How does one determine this rate?

16. Determining the Vulnerability Discovery Rate ICAT vulnerability metabase –A searchable index of computer vulnerabilities. –Entire database available for public download and analysis Relevant Information –Rate of discovery over time, Program and version effected Data Cleansing

20. Sources of Error Unknown Versions Bad Version Assignment Announcement Lag Severity of Vulnerabilities Operating System Effects –Packages included with OS, use OS release date instead of package release date Effort Variability Different Vulnerability Classes Data Errors

21. Is it worth disclosing vulnerabilities? If there is no depletion of vulnerabilities, then disclosing vulnerabilities is always harmful. This implies there is an infinite number of vulnerabilities and p r approaches zero. If we assume the pool of vulnerabilities is depleting, and all vulnerabilities will eventually be discovered, p r =1, and disclosing vulnerabilities makes sense.

22. Conclusions This research does not provide sufficient evidence that vulnerability finding and disclosure provides in increase in software security sufficient to offset the effort being invested. This research does not provide sufficient evidence that vulnerability finding and disclosure is a bad idea.

23. Conclusions Prefer continuous white hat discovery with no disclosure until exploitation by black hat? How do we estimate the number of vulnerabilities in an application, both discovered and undiscovered?