1. Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present, and Future Author: Xiaodong Zhu Lecturer: Fan Bao

2. The Past: Pre-modern Era  China was once a world economic and technological leader.  The peak of China’s premodern economic performance is in the Song Dynasty ( circa 1200)  China lost its leadership position to Western Europe sometime between 1500 and 1800  China actually fall behind during the Qing Dynasty ( 1644-1911)

4. The Past: Pre-reform period  In 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world.  The real per capita GDP in China was only one-fortieth of the U.S. level and one-tenth the Brazilian level.

5. The Present: The Economic Reform  Since the reform, China’s real per capita GDP has grown at an average rate exceeding 8 percent per year  China’s real per capita GDP is now almost one-fifth the U.S. level and at the same level as Brazil.

6. Why so different

10. The Future of China’s Economic Growth  Will China be able to continue its rapid growth?  When will China catch up the U.S.?

11. Thank you! Questions?