1. IMPACT OF FUTURE WATER USES OF AFGHANISTAN ON PAKISTAN 26 Augist 2015

2. There are nine (9) small and large rivers common between Pakistan and Afghanistan Kabul is the major one forming 90% of the total waters of common rivers Names and annual water contributions of common rivers at the entry point in Pakistan are IMPACT OF FUTURE WATER USES OF AFGHANISTAN ON PAKISTAN

3. COMMON RIVERS WITH AFGHANISTAN MAIN RIVERSMAJOR TRIBUTARIES AVERAGE ANNUAL INFLOWS (MAF) KHYBER PAKHTOONKHWA KabulChitral/Konar 17.44 KurramKaitu & Tochi 0.89 GomalZhob & Kandar 0.79 BALOCHISTAN Abdul Wahab StreamTurwa 0.0039 KandarNagandi Oba, Ashiwat 0.0212 KandTirkha 0.00293 Kadanai Tashrabad, Aghbergai, Hasna Zemal, Maran, Warjaroba 0.0058 Pishin Lora/ Bore Nallah 0.095 KaisarGori 0.0175 Total: 19.266

4. COMMON RIVERS WITH AFGHANISTAN IN KHYBER PAKHTOONKHWA

5. COMMON RIVERS WITH AFGHANISTAN IN BALOCHISTAN

6. Annual Flow = 8.0 MAF Catchment Area PakistanAfghanistan of Kabul River 15,000 km 2 53,000 km 2 Annual Flow = 17.4 MAF Annual Flow within Afghanistan = 9.4 MAF

8. Summary of Current and Future Afghanistan Agricultural Uses (Source: Toos Ab Consulting Engineers Co. Report No. 430321-2264-2; Vol-8 Agricultural Studies) Region Area Under Cultivation Crop Water Demand per Acre Total Water Demand for Agriculture Current (in 2005) Future (in 2030) Current (in 2005) Future (in 2030) Current (in 2005) Future (in 2030) (acres) (ac-ft/acre) (MAF) Parvan Plains129,092156,6823.05.00.380.79 Nangarhar Plains202,540390,2604.25.00.851.95 Kabul & Logar Plains120,855195,4494.4 0.530.85 Sum452,487742,3913.9*4.8* 1.763.59 % Increase in Total+ 64%+ 24%+ 104% * weighted average of all three agricultural plains CP

9. PARVAN PLAINS’ CROPPING PATTERN Existing Cropping Pattern CropFirst CropSecond CropCropping Intensity Cereals92.5% Cotton (Other Crops)2.0% Vegetables3.0% 6.0% Orchards & Vineyards0.3% 0.6% Sugar Cane2.2% 4.4% Sum100.0%3.3%103.3% Future Cropping Pattern CropFirst CropSecond CropCropping Intensity Cereals60% Cotton (Other Crops)10% Vegetables10% 20% Orchards & Vineyards15% 30% Sugar Cane5% 10% Sum100%25%125%

10. NANGARHAR PLAINS’ CROPPING PATTERN Existing Cropping Pattern CropFirst CropSecond CropCropping Intensity Cereals81% Cotton (Other Crops)2% Vegetables7% 14% Orchards & Vineyards10% 20% Sugar Cane Sum100%17%117% Future Cropping Pattern CropFirst CropSecond CropCropping Intensity Cereals50% Cotton (Other Crops)15% Vegetables15% 30% Orchards & Vineyards20% 40% Sugar Cane Sum100%35%135%

11. KABUL-LOGAR PLAINS’ CROPPING PATTERN Existing Cropping Pattern CropFirst CropSecond CropCropping Intensity Cereals82% Cotton (Other Crops)2% Vegetables8% 15% Orchards & Vineyards9% 17% Sugar Cane Sum100%16%116% Future Cropping Pattern CropFirst CropSecond CropCropping Intensity Cereals65% Cotton (Other Crops)10% Vegetables15% 30% Orchards & Vineyards10% 20% Sugar Cane Sum100%25%125%

12. Sr. No. Name of Dam Name of River PurposeConstructed Dam Height Reservoir Capacity Installed Capacity Command Area (ft)(acre-ft)(MW)(acres) 1NoghlouKabul HP,FC 1967 299 470,212100 - 2GharghePaghman GWR, IR, FC 1957 118 8,107- 4,940 3Kharvar IR 1975 118 13,782- 9,880 4AmirghaziKabul IR 1919 75 1,621- 4,940 5MahiparKabul HP 1966 - 16266 - 6SarubiKabul HP 1957 - 5,27022 - HP = HYDROPOWER, GWR = GROUNDWATER RECHARGE, IR = IRRIGATION, FC = FLOOD CONTROL Summary of Existing Dams in Kabul River Basin (Source: Toos Ab Consulting Engineers Co. Report No. 430321-2257-1/1; Vol-1 Water Resources Development and Integration)

13. Sr. No Name of Dam Name of River Purpose Year of Establishment Dam Height Reservoir Capacity Installed Capacity Command Area (ft)(acre-ft)(MW)(acres) 7 Jabal-al serajSalang HP 1920 - -2.92 - 8 Chekvard akLugar HP, IR 1938 - -3.6 - 9 Parvan BarragePanjshir HP, IR 1966 30 -2.4 61,256 10DarunteKabul HP, IR 1964 72 33,239 Filled with sediments 11.5 96,330 11 Ghoorban d- HP 1975 - -0.3 - 12SorkhabLugar FC, IR - 82 7,296- 9,880 Sum 539,690209 187,226 HP = HYDROPOWER, GWR = GROUNDWATER RECHARGE, IR = IRRIGATION, FC = FLOOD ONTROL Summary of Existing Dams in Kabul River Basin (Source: Toos Ab Consulting Engineers Co. Report No. 430321-2257-1/1; Vol-1 Water Resources Development and Integration)

14. Name of the Project Installed Capacity (MW) Command Area (acres) Storage (MAF) Kama Irrigation Project4529,6400.445 Shardeh-Ghorband Irrigation-cum-Micro Hydroelectric Power Scheme 0.60.28 Nangarhar Development Project-0.28 Gambiri Irrigation and Power Project1019,760 Gulbahar Storage for Irrigation & Power (Panjshir River) 120148,200 Shah-wa-Aroos Storage for Irrigation & Power1.57,410 Shahtoot Storage for Irrigation & Power29,640 Gatt Reservoir-- Summary of Proposes Water Resources Projects in Kabul River Basin (Source: Agricultural and Rural Development Sector Strategy 2007-08 to 2012-13)

15. WATER USES IN PAKISTAN Pakistan has an integrated irrigation system According to Indus Waters Treaty, all the flows of the three Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) are allocated to India Replacement works including link canals and storages were constructed to transfer waters of the Western Rivers to the areas of that were previously irrigated by the Eastern Rivers

16. WATER USES IN PAKISTAN Waters of the Kabul River coming to Pakistan are presently being utilized in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan Irrigated Area in IBIS - Pakistan = 31 million acres Current Irrigated Area in Kabul Basin - Afghanistan = 0.45 million acres

17. WATER USES IN PAKISTAN DescriptionHistoric Withdrawals As per 1991 Water Accord (MAF) IBIS – Kharif6872 IBIS – Rabi38 Annual – Total106110 Groundwater (Annual) 42 Grand Total148152

18. Inflow = 137 MAF Diversion = 106 MAF

19. Inflow = 93 MAF Diversion = 90 MAF

20. INDUS BASIN INFLOWS 1976-2000150 MAF 1976-2008144 MAF

21. IMPORTANT FINDINGS In Kabul basin outflows from Pakistan are about 8.0 MAF while Inflows are estimated as 17.5 MAF; Pakistan is getting more than double the amount of water which flows from Pakistan to Afghanistan

22. IMPORTANT FINDINGS The current water uses in Afghanistan are 1.8 MAF while the future uses are estimated as 3.6 MAF; the additional water use is estimated as 1.8 MAF

23. IMPORTANT FINDINGS Agriculture in Afghanistan has been heavily dependant on springs, karezes and rehats. At present the groundwater use is minimum as the karezes need maintenance. It is estimated that present groundwater use is 0.2 MAF which would increase to about 0.5 MAF with investments in rehabilitation of irrigation system

24. IMPORTANT FINDINGS Incremental surface water use for future condition is estimated as 1.5 MAF. Afghanistan is presently using less than 10% of water of Kabul River Basin while the future use would be within 20%.

25. IMPORTANT FINDINGS Pakistan is using more than 90% of the water of Kabul River Basin which may reduce to 80% in future. IBIS-Pakistan’s total present water use is estimated as 148 MAF; (106 MAF surface water + 42 MAF GW)

26. IMPORTANT FINDINGS Surface water inflow at rim station is estimated as 144 MAF Pakistan faces water shortages in Rabi season and at the start of Kharif season. Thus, additional diversion by Afghanistan in Kabul basin would negatively affect Pakistan during the Rabi and early Kharif

27. IMPORTANT FINDINGS The magnitude of impact on inflows is 1 – 1.5%

28. IMPORTANT FINDINGS The impact on canal diversions will be less or negligible in the years in which escapages to sea are higher than the required. However, in the years in which escapages to sea are less than the required, the impact will be either on canal diversion or environment

29. IMPORTANT FINDINGS Detailed studies on cropping patterns and resulting demand pattern and system operation (combined Afghanistan+Pakistan) are required for determining the exact magnitude of impact and its time of occurrence

30. IMPORTANT FINDINGS Afghanistan intends to build storages to bring additional area under cultivation. The storage operation (filling and release) can be done in a manner so that harm to Pakistan’s agriculture is minimized e.g. if filling of storage is done in July-September period, the negative impact on Kharif sowing in Pakistan may be obviated

31. IMPORTANT FINDINGS Pakistan can mitigate the impact by building new storages so that extra water flowing to sea is stored and utilized

32. IMPORTANT FINDINGS Improving irrigation system efficiencies may also help Research and use of improved seed varieties and irrigation practices that require less water and are drought resistant

33. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? In view of the relatively low uses in Afghanistan (current + future) as compared to Pakistan, it would not be possible to ask Afghanistan not to develop its water use in Kabul basin

34. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? The sharing of water use should be according to the rule of equitable utilization which requires that watercourse nations shall participate in the use, development, and protection of an international watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner with a view to attaining optimal and sustainable utilization and benefits consistent with adequate protection of the watercourse. [Article 5 of UN Convention on the Non-Navigational uses of International Watercourses;May 21, 1997]

35. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? Pakistan should point out that additional water use in Afghanistan would negatively affect agriculture in Pakistan, specifically in drought years

36. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? Pakistan may emphasize that Afghanistan should inform Pakistan on its development plans. The proposal of Pakistan- Afghanistan joint commission for harmonious development of water resources would be a useful starting point

37. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? Afghanistan should carry out development in an efficient manner (from the water-use point of view) so that harm to Pakistan is minimized.

38. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? Afghanistan may be asked to submit the master plans and feasibility studies of the projects for review by Pakistan for arriving at agreed figures of water uses with efficient water use methods. In case there are differences, these may be resolved by the experts of the two countries

39. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? In case of storage projects Afghanistan should agree to build only that magnitude of storage which is consistent with its irrigation and power needs in the Kabul basin

40. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? The storage filling period should be outside Kharif sowing season in Pakistan ( March to May)

41. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? Afghanistan should rehabilitate its karezes and rehats to bring these to fully functional level so that surface flow diversions for agriculture are minimised

42. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? There should be regular monitoring of the facilities in Afghanistan and information of monitoring supplied to Pakistan. Pakistani experts would visit the facilities in Afghanistan for confirmation of the operation of the facilities in the agreed manner

43. How to Take-up the Matter with Afghanistan? Pakistan should highlight that it has also right to develop hydropower and irrigation facilities in the Chitral/Kunar basin in its territory but it will be done in a manner that uses in Afghanistan on the same river (Kunar River) are not adversely affected

44. THANK YOU