1. How useful are findings of MAP for operational mesoscale model development? Hans Volkert Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre DLR-Oberpfaffenhofen Wessling, Germany with contributions of many MAPpers; acknowlegements as we go along How relevant are field campaigns for operational model development? Experiences from MAP

2. 1) Micro-review: a century of modelling and campaigns 2) Fast recapitulation: The MAP special observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov. 1999 3) MAP data @ meteorol. services: UKMO, DWD, MetCH, ZAMG, MétéoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada, US-Navy) 4) Some conclusions

3. 1) Micro-review: a century of modelling and campaigns 1904 (-100 a): idea of physical modelling - analysis, prognosis Vilhelm Bjerknes 1954 (-50 a): quasi-operational tests on electronic computers in Sweden & USA 1974 (-30 a): GATE within GARP Atlantik Tropical Experiment GARP Global Atmospheric Research Programme (HV into meteorology) 1994 (-10 a): planning of MAP starts 1999 (-5 a): MAP-SOP: 7 Sep. - 15 Nov.

4. 2) Fast recapitulation: The MAP special observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov. 1999 Dry MAP: waves, drag, flux Wet MAP: microphysics, rain

5. Scale / resolution in the Alpine region The 'truth' (500 m res.) MODIS: 02/02/02 450 km 800 km 1994: DM with ∆x = 14 km 2003: Meso-NH with ∆x = 2 km ≈4 km ≈3 km Target Areas

6. some observational tools: airborne and groundbased

7. 'MAP bookshop': M.A.P. 72, 2000 14 articles on HERA QJRMS 588, 2003 25 articles on MAP-SOP HESS 7, 2003 10 articles on RAPHAEL & MAP-SOP Met. Z., 2004: 3 issues 14 MAP articles from ICAM-03 BAMS overviews, numerous other papers

8. 3) MAP data @ meteorol. services: UKMO, DWD, MetCH, ZAMG, MétéoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada, US-Navy)

9. MM5 Mesoscale models developed/applied during MAP: ARPS multiple grid nesting; Δx down to 150 m LM UM

10. Dry MAPUKMO mountain waves IOP-15, 8 Nov. 1999 3 aircraft vs. Unified Model ref: Sam. Smith, QJRMS, 130, 2004 Falcon C-130 Electra

11. Weigel et al. (ETH-Z, CH), AMS-MM Conf., 2004 Alpine boundary layer

12. Andre Walser, Mon.Wea.Rev., 132, 2004 Predictability of convection/rain F West- ern Alps I CH I Po valley

13. Andre Walser & Christoph Schär, J. Hydrology, 2004 Precipitation into catchments MC2 radar

14. Water budgets: Joël Stein 2004, QJ, 481-502 similar studies by R. Smith et al. Ligurian Sea Lac Leman

15. Christian Keil & Claudia Cardinali, QJ, 130, 2004, in press Re-analysis at ECMWF (T319L50 vs. T511L60)

16. Re-analysis at ECMWF (continued) case study for precipitation

17. Re-analysis at ECMWF (continued) case study for upper level intrusion moisture DIAL RA CNTR

18. Hydrol. modelling (P3): runoff from predicted precip. Roberto Ranzi atmosphere river recently: Grossi & Kouwen: 5 atm. mod. + 2 hydro. mod. = 10 exp.

19. 4) Some conclusions

20. simplistic picture of progress: higher spatial/temporal resolution ―> finer grids ―> better forecasts typical field campaign: SOP of several weeks 10-20 IOPs of 1-2 d each domain/period of addid. data << standard verification areas lessons from MAP (after numerous case studies): initial data of similar impact as small scale details numerical experiments mainly in research/university groups e.g. compl. MAP-SOP analyses from ARPEGE by F. ARNAL very few close to operational developers (some plans) cooperative spirit & creativity needed: unconventional perspectives may overcome specialists' bound.

21. MAP: a look ahead Systematic harvesting till may 2005 (ICAM-MAP Zadar)

22. a possible phase-space for the harvest: P1 P2+P6 P3 P4+P5 P7+P8 Projects Needs obs. techniques phys. understanding num. simulation academia society met. services which other dimensions are (more) meaningful ? Progress categories

23. MAP: a look ahead Systematic harvesting till may 2005 (ICAM-MAP Zadar) Forecast demonstration project (FDP; a la WMO-WWRP) quasi-operational ~ 3 months in 2006 (?) coordinated by MetCH (Mathias Rotach) termed D-PHASE (Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulations in the European Alps)

24. and never forget...... mapping is and remains TEAM work Sample of the MAP community naar Brig, June 2003