1. The Impact of Economic Factors on Mortality and Health at Oldest-Old Ages in China Zhong Zhao China Center for Economic Research Peking University August 2, 2004 Prepared for The workshop on “Determinants of Health Longevity in China” at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, August 2-4, 2004

2. Outline I. Introduction II. Relevant Studies III. Data Set and Description Statistics IV. Estimations and Findings V. Conclusions

3. I. Introduction The percentage of population over 65 –1982: 4.91% –1990: 5.57% –2000: 6.96% –Aging Society: 7% Population of the Oldest-Old (age over 80) –2000: 13 millions –2050: 114-168 millions (projected by Han and Yao, 2001)

4. II. Relevant Studies Economists: Clark et al. (1978), Hurd (1990) Vaupel (1998): Overview Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2001 Analysis of the Determinants of Healthy Longevity, eds. Zeng et al. 2004 Xu and Gu (2001): Rural-urban difference Wang and Zeng (2001): Gender and Activities of Daily Living (ADL) Lu and Chu (2004): Economic factors and ADL Wu and Zhan (2004): Diet and Health Gu (2004): Smoking, drinking and longevity This paper : Economic factors, health and longevity

5. III. Data Set and Description Statistics Data Set –Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) Description Statistics –Table 1. Characteristics by Health Status –Table 2. Characteristics by Health Status and Gender –Table 3. Characteristics by Life Status

6. Table 1. Characteristics by Health Status (ADL)(%) VariablesWhole Sample ActiveMild DisabilitySevere Disability Female0.58120.53760.63880.7054 Han Nationality0.95140.94460.95930.9726 Born in Urban0.17410.17450.16960.1803 Boiling Water0.94690.94450.94820.9600 Finance-Self0.21060.22880.19970.1438 Finance-Government0.07160.07230.06690.0696 Enough Money0.72730.73130.74080.6851 Adequate Med. Service Now 0.94350.94270.94980.9374 Adequate Med. Service in Childhood 0.44880.46880.44850.3641 Gov. Pay Med. Cost0.14340.15270.13830.1101 Hungry in Childhood0.59920.59960.58090.6224

7. Table 2. Characteristics by Health Status and Gender (%) VariablesMaleFemale AllActiveMild Dis. Severe Dis. AllActiveMild Dis. Severe Dis. Han Nationality0.95160.94350.96920.98050.95120.94550.95380.9693 Born in Urban0.18590.18860.16900.19530.16560.16240.16960.1740 Boiling Water0.94860.94670.95370.96090.94560.94260.94510.9595 Finance-Self0.39120.38300.44270.37210.08050.09620.06230.0485 Finance- Government 0.06600.06780.05950.06590.07560.07610.07470.0712 Enough Money0.73580.74400.73300.67230.72110.72030.74520.6905 Adequate Med. Service Now 0.94610.94640.95470.92760.94170.93940.94700.9415 Adequate Med. Service in Childhood 0.47650.49600.47420.34830.42880.44540.43300.3706 Gov. Pay Med. Cost 0.25490.24490.29420.26560.06340.07380.04930.0455 Hungry in Childhood 0.5927 0.59070.58890.60400.60550.57520.6364

8. Table 3. Characteristics by Life Status (%) VariablesAllMaleFemale Live in 02 Dead in 02 AllLive in 02 Dead in 02 AllLive in 02 Dead in 02 Female0.56990.58550.0000 1.0000 Han Nationality0.94850.95260.95160.94840.95250.95120.94840.9526 Born in Urban0.17640.14470.18590.19290.14940.16560.16490.1413 Boiling Water0.94420.93990.94860.94590.93990.94560.94290.9398 Finance-Self0.22590.15420.39120.40810.29940.08050.08830.0513 Finance-Government0.07360.07220.06600.06610.07240.07560.07920.0720 Enough Money0.73500.70750.73580.75000.69570.72110.72350.7159 Adequate Med. Service Now 0.94240.94280.94610.94860.93250.94170.93770.9498 Adequate Med. Service in Childhood 0.46120.42880.47650.50050.44100.42880.43110.4204 Gov. Pay Med. Cost0.14970.11000.25490.25990.19460.06340.06660.0509 Hungry in Childhood0.60150.61310.59270.59040.60920.60400.60990.6158

9. IV. Estimations and Findings Health Outcome: Multivariate Regression –Dependent variables: Activities of Daily Living (ADL). Three categories: active, mild disability and severe disability Mortality: Probit Model –Dependent variables: binary indictor-survival in 2002 or not

10. Table 4. Multivariate Regression for Health Status Variables AllMaleFemale Coeff.P-ValueCoeff.P-ValueCoeff.P-Value Constant 2.73151<.00012.71706<.00012.56433<.0001 Female -0.16934<.0001 Han Nationality -0.174620.0055-0.180330.0391-0.150870.0872 Born in Urban -0.035580.29880.001030.9824-0.07430.1282 Boiling Water -0.050340.4293-0.054790.5746-0.048520.5625 Finance-Self 0.042630.2873-0.030450.51050.213680.0029 Finance-Government 0.079160.13310.148810.0514-0.006090.9335 Enough Money 0.077620.00940.10810.01060.067110.1052 Adequate Med. Service Now -0.049520.3744-0.01040.898-0.080570.2882 Adequate Med. Service in Childhood 0.091030.0010.114190.00290.072010.0625 Gov. Pay Med. Cost -0.051820.2501-0.111710.02810.085710.3018 Hungry in Childhood 0.06140.03020.039780.31190.073610.064

11. Table 5. Mortality Analysis by Probit Model Variables AllMaleFemale Coeff.P-ValueCoeff. P-Value Coeff.P-Value Constant -0.40010.0339-0.30650.2989-0.45720.0566 Female 0.01060.8445 Han Nationality -0.10210.3987-0.07390.6908-0.13340.4049 Born in Urban -0.00380.9557-0.06520.53260.04260.6446 Boiling Water 0.18520.13570.26070.19660.12630.4235 Finance-Self -0.25660.0016-0.22520.0259-0.29810.0378 Finance-Government -0.05140.6145-0.03890.8117-0.07330.5817 Enough Money -0.08070.1692-0.14420.1106-0.03930.6121 Adequate Med. Service Now -0.0230.83-0.18880.25210.1060.4562 Adequate Med. Service in Childhood -0.07340.1745-0.09140.2691-0.06090.3959 Gov. Pay Med. Cost 0.03010.74110.00960.93340.13020.4042 Hungry in Childhood -0.03620.5172-0.00190.9825-0.05470.4584

12. V. Conclusions Health care condition at childhood has no significant effect on the mortality, but has significant effect on the health of the oldest-old. Financial self sufficiency is beneficial for the successful aging and health of the oldest-old, but not for the survival of the oldest-old. Though there are more female oldest-olds than male oldest-olds, the health of female oldest-olds are worse than the health of the male oldest-old. Gender has a significant effect on health status, but not on mortality.