1. Criteria Attainment and Assessing Management Effectiveness Peter Tango USGS @ CBPO Co-chair Bob Hirsch USGS Staff Expert Katie Foreman UMCES@CBPO May 20, 2009

2. Annual Net Export (kg NO3/ha) Recreated from Bormann and Likens 1979 in Waring and Schlesinger 1985. Forest Ecosystems Concepts and Management 60 yr old Deforested Recovery forest Lessons from Hubbard Brook Forest in New Hampshire Expression of land use change, nutrient export and recovery of nutrient retention with revegetation.

3. System Responses: Chesapeake Bay tidal tributaries and Hillsborough Bay, FL Assessing effectiveness of nutrient controls: Decrease nutrient load Improve Water Quality

4. Conceptual Model of the Chesapeake Bay Ecosystem and Response Trajectories

5. Climate Variability Fish and Wildlife Management Invasive Species Historical Land Use Patterns

6. 1985 Scenario, 420TN 28.4TP 1 : Intermediate C Scenario, 378TN 24.5TP 2 : 91 -'00 Base Scenario, 340TN 24.1TP 3 : Intermediate B Scenario, 279TN 17.2TP 4 : Tributary Strategy 2010a Scenario, 236TN 21.1TP 5 : Intermediate A Scenario, 209TN 13.7TP 6 : 2003 Allocation Scenario, 175TN 12.8TP 7 : E3 2010 Scenario, 138TN 12.0TP 8 : Does not meet WQS at E3 Lee Curry, CBP Modeling SC 2009. Projected Spatial Pattern of Dissolved Oxygen Criteria Attainment in Response to Nutrient Load Reductions for Chesapeake Bay

7. Criteria assessment: (The Quest for the Holy Grail)

8. Open Water (applied year round)  30-day mean (5.5 mg/l @ 0-0.5 ppt, 5.0 mg/l @ >0.5 ppt) 7-day mean (4.0 mg/l) instantaneous minimum (3.2 mg/l @ 29°C) Migratory Fish and Spawning Nursery (applied spring) 7-day mean (6.0 mg/l) instantaneous minimum (5.0 mg/l) Deep Water (applied summer) 30-day mean (3.0 mg/l) 1-day mean (2.3 mg/l) instantaneous minimum (1 mg/l) Deep Channel (applied summer) instantaneous minimum (1 mg/l) Criteria assessment task: Is the 30-day Dissolved Oxygen mean the Holy Grail? OW M DW DC

9. Assessable Criteria are Limiting!! “It’s only a model!” Gary Shenk USEPA 2009

10. Spectral Analysis – task activities Allows us to combine short-term variation from CONMON stations to long-term variation from mid-channel data. + daymonth DO week DO “Wow” “Oooo” Actual implementation of Spectral Analysis 7 day criteria Tish Robertson VADEQ 2009

11. Instant Day Week BiWeekly Monthly Seasonal Annual MultiAn Watershed Tributary Strategy Sub- watershed Reach Point Space and Time Scales: The Present Watershed Water Quality Monitoring Network 88 Station Nontidal Monitoring Network

12. Addressing Gaps in the Nontidal Network Task Activities: Network Characterization Land Cover Classification: (based on visual analysis of NLCD 2001) Predominant land use identified (if possible) Multiple land uses identified in order of extent J. Blomquist USGS 2009

13. 24 mi 2 75 mi 2 118 mi 2 1001 mi 2 6302 mi 2 27100 mi 2 300 mi 2 Drainage Area (Square miles) Statistics Distribution of Drainage Areas represented by the CBP Nontidal Network 88 stations. Space and Time Scales of Desired Measures of Watershed Management Effectiveness: Present NT Network Characterization Drainage area Statistical distribution for network sites

14. Nontidal Network Number of monitoring sites by size and land cover class Initial Design vs. Current Implementation

15. ID Priority Areas: Targeting for Restoration Watershed –Regional and local-scale information –Different settings Environmental framework Land-use patterns Tidal Chesapeake Bay –SAV planting sites USGS SPARROW model

16. Sampling Design Needs CBP Management Segmentation Scheme Sampling Site Locations Sampling Design Options Paired? Nested? Upstream, Downstream? Sampling Frequency Standard Protocols Analytical Considerations

18. Charge!