1. 1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 12, 2013 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. 2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3. 3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal over much of India, Burma, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, but below normal especially over parts of southern India, eastern China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam and eastern Australia.

4. 4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern over monsoon Asia is slightly differently from the 90-day pattern. Some dryness is beginning to develop in southern India, parts of eastern China, Indonesia, and eastern Australia. The Northeast winter monsoon over southern India is off to a weak start so far.

5. 5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, the significant event is the category 5 typhoon Haiyan in the western Pacific ocean that made its first landfall in the Philippines with devastatingly powerful winds and gusts and traveled further west to slightly miss North Vietnam and make another landfall in the Guangxi province of southwest China. This typhoon Haiyan considered one of the strongest ever, caused very significant damage to lives and property in the Philippines, where the death toll is feared to be in the few thousands.

6. 6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7. 7 Atmospheric Circulation

8. 8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9. 9 Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal over much of India, Burma, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, but below normal especially over parts of southern India, eastern China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam and eastern Australia. The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern over monsoon Asia is slightly differently from the 90-day pattern. Some dryness is beginning to develop in southern India, parts of eastern China, Indonesia, and eastern Australia. The Northeast winter monsoon over southern India is off to a weak start so far. This past week, the significant event is the category 5 typhoon Haiyan in the western Pacific ocean that made its first landfall in the Philippines with devastatingly powerful winds and gusts and traveled further west to slightly miss North Vietnam and make another landfall in the Guangxi province of southwest China. This typhoon Haiyan considered one of the strongest ever, caused very significant damage to lives and property in the Philippines, where the death toll is feared to be in the few thousands. For the next two weeks NCEP GFS model predicts that rainfall will be above normal along the Bay of Bengal coastal region of India and over Sumatra of Indonesia and below normal elsewhere.

10. 10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11. 11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12. 12 Climatology