1. The Motivation

2. Future Flood Trends r How will flood frequency and nature change in time, as glaciers melt and precipitation patterns change?

3. Future Flood Trends r How will flood frequency and nature change in time, as glaciers melt and precipitation patterns change?

4. Causes of Floods M. MONIRUL QADER MIRZA. Three Recent Extreme Floods in Bangladesh: A Hydro-Meteorological Analysis. Natural Hazards 28: 35–64, 2003. Causes of Floods in Bangladesh

5. Glacial Contributions GLOFs: Lewis Pugh swimming on Everest

6. Floods Differ Pakistan 2010Pakistan 1973

7. Defining a Flood Hortonian vs. Dunne Flooding Excessive Streamflow or Catastrophe drought great flood probability streamflow

8. Direct Flood Effects Agriculture (losses, salination, timing) Infrastructure (roads, power, communication) Health (disease, food and clean water, psyche) Trickle-Down (shortages, money, feedback)

9. Systemic Linkages

10. Outstanding Questions How big is the glacier-melt effect? When will it peak? Do GLOFs matter downstream? When does a flood become damaging? (size, time, etc.) Is there a difference between a large streamflow and a flood? How does one describe the distribution, extent, and nature of floods, changing in time? Do I need sophisticated of models of synchronization, monsoon dynamics, hydrological topology to find out?

11. Three Readings Mirza, M., et al., 2003 something of a tour de force in stringing together models of climate change and hydrologistics to really address climate flood effects, but only based on precipitation Kaser, G., et al., 2003 investigates effects of glacier melt on streamflow, but in order to predict glaciers, not melt Singh, P. and L. Bengtsson, 2005 a excellent model of streamflow, but nothing on changes over time or flooding

12. Other Good References IPCC, WG1, chapter 4; WG2, chapters 1, 3, 10 Ohmura, A., 2001: Physical basis for the temperature/melt- index method Barnett, T. P., et al., 2005: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions Mirza, M., 2003: Three Recent Extreme Floods in Bangladesh: A Hydro-Meteorological Analysis Richardson, S. D. and J. M. Reynolds, 2000: An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas Kundzewicz, Z and Takeuchi, K., 1999: Flood protection and management: quo vadimus? Ahern, M., 2005: Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence