Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Analysis and modelling of the 2010 Pakistan heavy precipitation events Milind Mujumdar Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical.

Published byRolf Burke Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Analysis and modelling of the 2010 Pakistan heavy precipitation events Milind Mujumdar Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical."— Presentation transcript:

1 Analysis and modelling of the 2010 Pakistan heavy precipitation events Milind Mujumdar Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. http://www.tropmet.res.in P. Priya, T.P. Sabin, R. Krishnan

2 2010 Pakistan floods 2011 - Hauz et.al., Webster et. al., Hong et. al, Lau and Kim, Saeed et. al.

3 TRMM Rainfall anomalies for JJAS 2010 (mm) Clim+ 0.5 σ Hong et al. (GRL, 2011)

4 TRMM (Rainfall) and NCEP (Moisture Transport) JJAS Climatology TRMM (Rainfall) and NCEP (Moisture Transport) “2010” JJAS Anomalies

5 Asian summer monsoon response to La Nina events under warming climate Mujumdar et al. (2012) - Meteorological Applications Special issue on Asian summer monsoon Composite SST anomaly (12 La Nina cases ) (mm) ( 0 C) NCEP OI-SST Anomaly for JJAS 2010 ( 0 C)

6 JJAS mean sea level pressure (hPa) 2010 CLIM (JJAS mslp 2010) – (cmp La nina) Anomalies hPa

7 2010 JJAS OLR anomalies Composite of olr anomaly (La Nina)

8 Zonal Circulation Red : Climatology Black : 2010 Anomalous Zonal Circulation : 2010 Averaged over 10N-20N

9 La Niña events 2010 Total – 20 / JJAS - 12 Total – 45 / JJAS > 30 Rainfall - ~ 108% of LPA Rainfall - ~ 101% of LPA Extended Analysis

10 Averaged Rainfall over Indo-Pak region (65-76 E; 28-36 N) during JJAS Intense Rainfall events Accumulated La Nina event

11 EOF-MSLP-JJAS PC1

12 b) without ENSO component a) with ENSO component SST anomaly for JJAS 2010

13 LMDZ-AGCM “CLIM” ensemble JJAS mean Rainfall and moisture transport LMDZ-AGCM “2010” ensemble JJAS anomalies Rainfall and moisture transport

14 LMDZ-AGCM “2010” ensemble JJAS mean Rainfall and moisture transport LMDZ-AGCM “with ENSO” ensemble JJAS anomalies (Excluding SST warming trend) Rainfall and moisture transport

15 LMDZ-AGCM “without La Nina” JJAS anomalies (retaining Indian ocean warming trend) Rainfall and moisture transport LMDZ-AGCM “2010” ensemble JJAS anomalies Rainfall and moisture transport

16

17 Summary 1.West ward shift of WPSH - Asian summer monsoon response to La Nina events under warming climate. 2.Westward shift of monsoon circulation and large-scale suppression of convection over Indo-Pacific sector during La Nina episodes. 3.Northward transport of moisture over northwest Indo-Pak region from Indian Ocean 4. Complex interactions between tropical and sub-tropical circulations – extreme rainfall events over subtropical Indo-Pak region. Scope for future work Ensemble simulation experiments for understanding the role of La Nina episodes under warming climate in the evolution of heavy flood events over South Asia. CORDEX-SA - cccr.tropmet.res.in

18 Thank you

19

20 La Niña events 2010 Total – 20 / JJAS - 12 Total – 45 / JJAS > 30 Rainfall - ~ 108% of LPA Rainfall - ~ 101% of LPA Extended Analysis

21 EOF-OLR(-240)-dly-clm-jjas EOF-dOLRa-lanina-jjas

22 850 hPa wind JJAS anomalies La Nina Composite 200 hPa wind 2010

23 850 hPa wind JJAS anomalies 200 hPa wind 2010

Download ppt "Analysis and modelling of the 2010 Pakistan heavy precipitation events Milind Mujumdar Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical."

Similar presentations

ROLE OF THE INDIAN AND ATLANTIC OCEANS ON THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF EASTERN AFRICA Charles C. Mutai Kenya Meteorological Department P. O. Box 30259,

ROLE OF THE INDIAN AND ATLANTIC OCEANS ON THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF EASTERN AFRICA Charles C. Mutai Kenya Meteorological Department P. O. Box 30259,
Large-scale context for the UK floods in Summer 2007 Submitted to Weather, 14 May 2008 Mike Blackburn 1 John Methven 2 and Nigel Roberts 3 (1) National.

Large-scale context for the UK floods in Summer 2007 Submitted to Weather, 14 May 2008 Mike Blackburn 1 John Methven 2 and Nigel Roberts 3 (1) National.
Impacts of systematic model biases on intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon and the intraseasonal-interannual relationship A. G. Turner.

Impacts of systematic model biases on intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon and the intraseasonal-interannual relationship A. G. Turner.
Analysis of Eastern Indian Ocean Cold and Warm Events: The air-sea interaction under the Indian monsoon background Qin Zhang RSIS, Climate Prediction Center,

Analysis of Eastern Indian Ocean Cold and Warm Events: The air-sea interaction under the Indian monsoon background Qin Zhang RSIS, Climate Prediction Center,
Uganda’s climate: change and variability Prof Chris Reason, UCT & Lead Author, WG1 AR5 Regional circulation and climate Climate variability Long-term projections.

Uganda’s climate: change and variability Prof Chris Reason, UCT & Lead Author, WG1 AR5 Regional circulation and climate Climate variability Long-term projections.
Euro-Atlantic winter atmospheric response to the Tropical Atlantic Variability T. Losada (1), B. Rodríguez-Fonseca (1), J. García- Serrano (1) C.R. Mechoso.

Euro-Atlantic winter atmospheric response to the Tropical Atlantic Variability T. Losada (1), B. Rodríguez-Fonseca (1), J. García- Serrano (1) C.R. Mechoso.
The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2008 For.

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2008 For.
Potential Predictability and Extended Range Prediction of Monsoon ISO’s Prince K. Xavier Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute of.

Potential Predictability and Extended Range Prediction of Monsoon ISO’s Prince K. Xavier Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute of.
GRL Seminar Dec 11, 2013 1 Advanced Asian summer monsoon onset in recent decades Yoshiyuki Kajikawa RIKEN, Advanced Institute.

GRL Seminar Dec 11, Advanced Asian summer monsoon onset in recent decades Yoshiyuki Kajikawa RIKEN, Advanced Institute.
Teleconnection of Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean Oscillation with Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Nepal 8/8/20141 Lochan P. Devkota & Ujjwal Tiwari.

Teleconnection of Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean Oscillation with Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Nepal 8/8/20141 Lochan P. Devkota & Ujjwal Tiwari.
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Nonlinear Rainfall Response to El Nino.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Nonlinear Rainfall Response to El Nino.
The causes of extreme rainfall in East Africa: insights from observed data and GCMs Emily Black, Julia Slingo and Ken Sperber.

The causes of extreme rainfall in East Africa: insights from observed data and GCMs Emily Black, Julia Slingo and Ken Sperber.
Warm Indian Ocean Weak Asian Monsoon

Warm Indian Ocean Weak Asian Monsoon
Pakistan Flood 2010: P. J. Webster R. A. Houze, Jr. P. J. Webster R. A. Houze, Jr. International Weather & Climate Events of 2010, AMS Annual Meeting,

Pakistan Flood 2010: P. J. Webster R. A. Houze, Jr. P. J. Webster R. A. Houze, Jr. International Weather & Climate Events of 2010, AMS Annual Meeting,
Relationship between large-scale climate drivers: the SAM, the IOD, & ENSO) Wenju Cai and Tim Cowan (Australia) Cai, W., A. Sullivan, and T. Cowan (2010),

Relationship between large-scale climate drivers: the SAM, the IOD, & ENSO) Wenju Cai and Tim Cowan (Australia) Cai, W., A. Sullivan, and T. Cowan (2010),
© 2007 Lawrence Moore June 2008 Climate Briefing  Recent Climate Variability  Seasonal Outlook for the Globe  ENSO Status and Tutorial.

© 2007 Lawrence Moore June 2008 Climate Briefing  Recent Climate Variability  Seasonal Outlook for the Globe  ENSO Status and Tutorial.
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 November 2012.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 November 2012.
Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Precipitation By Huijun Wang Institute of Atmospheric Physics 2011-07-25.

Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Precipitation By Huijun Wang Institute of Atmospheric Physics
1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google