1. Variability in emission parameters of ozone precursors’ emissions in the GAINS model TFIEP/TFMM Workshop on Uncertainties in emission inventories and atmospheric models Dublin, Ireland, 22 October, 2007 Z.Klimont, J.Cofala EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

2. Outline Recent development and projections of ozone precursors’ emission in Europe GAINS model versus national estimates of emissions Examples of variation in unabated NOx and NMVOC emission factors Examples of variation in activity data for 2000 Examples of variation in implied NOx and NMVOC emission factors Example of different stakeholder’s perspective on evolution of emissions (penetration of measures) Discussion

3. Development of total EU25 NOx and NMVOC emissions, GAINS model scenarios

4. Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs. earlier assessment (1)

5. Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs. earlier assessment (2)

6. National assessments vs. RAINS estimate for 2000 SO 2 NO x NH 3 NMVOC

7. PM emissions – national assessment vs. RAINS estimate for 2000

8. Variation in unabated NOx emission factors in CAFE and NEC scenarios - The data are for EU-25 countries

9. Variation in unabated NMVOC emission factors in CAFE and NEC scenarios - The data are for EU-25 countries

10. Changes in activity data used in various GAINS scenarios

12. Evolution of implied NO x ef in CAFE and NEC scenarios The value ranges for EU-25 countries

13. Evolution of implied NMVOC ef in CAFE and NEC scenarios The value ranges for EU-25 countries

15. NMVOC emission trends (example for coating sector) national vs. industrial perspective

16. Uncertainty of sectoral NO x emissions vs. national total, UK. Source: Schöpp et al., 2005 1990 2010 FuelSectorRank S.D. 10^3 tons95 % CIRank S.D. 10^3 tons95 % CI GasolinePassenger cars1100±26 %--- Hard coalPower plants, existing267±19 %225±29 % DieselHeavy duty trucks365±26 %136±35 % DieselOff-road machinery418±26 %415±33 % n.a.Industrial processes523±36 %334±50 % Heavy fuel oilPower plants, existing67±19 %107±29 % DieselNat. sea traffic, L78±26 %810±33 % Natural gasDomestic86±19 %612±28 % DieselNat. sea traffic, M98±26 %99±33 % n.a.Air traffic and other1011±36 %522±50 % Natural gasPower plants, new---79±29 % National total 141±10 % 66±11 %

17. 95 % confidence intervals for total UK NO x emissions estimated in the RAINS model Source: Schöpp et al., 2005 19902010 Activity data±5 %±8 % Emission factors±9 %±7 % Removal efficiency±0 %±3 % All factors considered±10 %±11 %

18. Conclusions Uncertainty of total national emission estimates lower than sectoral uncertainties For projection years uncertainty of future activity levels plays a key role Assessment of emissions of ozone precursors burdened with lower variability compared with other pollutants (NH3, PM) Small change in unabated EFs between CAFE and NEC; GAINS sufficiently calibrated in result of bilateral consultations with MS Implied factors may change relatively quickly and therefore update for the purpose of inventory important Important improvement of emission inventories and projections achieved recently (CAFE, NEC, ARTEMIS, COPERT); Further efforts for sectors covered will bring diminishing returns Current assessments good enough for integrated assessment at the European level but: –Some sectors require more in-depth analysis –More detailed information needed for local assessment