1. Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services Presented by John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch Fort Collins, CO USA For The WMO Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Course September 14, 2011

2. Purpose This presentation provides a brief overview of operational services available from NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA/RAMMB that are applicable for monitoring and forecasting Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones 13 Sept 20112 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

3. Outline NESDIS Services (operational / real-time) –Center/intensity fixes –TC surface winds –Rainfall –Total Precipitable Water (TPW) CIRA Services (real-time) –Genesis –TC realtime Imagery Heat Content Experimental products 13 Sept 20113 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

4. NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch Small group of satellite analysts co-located with several National Centers (OPC, HPC, EMC) –They provide tropical cyclone fixes Subjective Dvorak Microwave –Monitor several automated products. –Provide other services (e.g., volcanoes) 13 Sept 2011 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop 4

5. NESDIS Satellite Services Division http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/index.html Positions/Intensities Rainfall 13 Sept 20115 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

6. Center/Intensity Fixes Center fixes with Dvorak T-numbers –http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html –Active storms near the top –Southern Hemisphere information near the bottom –Archive of past storms near the top. Position T-number/Current Intensity 13 Sept 20116 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

7. Microwave fixes –http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.html –Active storms near the top –Southern Hemisphere information near the bottom Center/Intensity Fixes Position Source 13 Sept 20117 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

8. Intensity (objective, automated) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html Nicely compliments subjective Dvorak by providing more frequent estimates of position and intensity…. (hourly) 13 Sept 20118 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

9. Surface Winds Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) –http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html Available ~ 1 hour after synoptic hour 13 Sept 20119 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

10. Surface Winds (MTCSWA) What it is Best estimate of TC wind structure (1-minute @ 10 m over land and water) and resulting MSLP based upon 1.Current intensity, latitude, and the Infrared satellite imagery (analog winds; Mueller et al. (2006)) 2.Scatterometry 3.Cloud/Feature Drift Winds (> 600 hPa) 4.Balanced winds calculated from the AMSU Microwave Sounder What it is NOT An intensity fix A position fix 13 Sept 201110 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop AMSU refers to the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

11. Surface Winds (MTCSWA) ExampleWeaknesses Estimating small radii of maximum winds (RMWs) Estimating multiple RMW Weak systems are represented as too symmetric Hurricane force winds are too extensive for very strong systems (> 95 kt, 1-minute) 13 Sept 201111 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

12. Surface Winds Ocean wind vectors/speeds –ASCAT http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCA TData.php –WindSAT http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/WindS ATData.php –SSMI (Speed) http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/SSMI Data.php 13 Sept 201112 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

13. Surface Wind (OVW) 13 Sept 201113 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

14. Rainfall Potential Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (ETRaP) –http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html 13 Sept 201114 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

15. Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) 13 Sept 201115 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

16. 13 Sept 2011 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop 16

17. TPW http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/bTPW/index.html 13 Sept 201117

18. From CIRA CIRA Services (real-time) –Genesis –TC realtime Imagery Heat Content Experimental products 13 Sept 201118 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

19. Experimental Genesis Product Global 24-h genesis probabilities –North and South Atlantic –North/South West Pacific –North/South East Pacific –North/South Indian Ocean Must be understood… probabilities are low, but can exceed 30 times climatology. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gp arm/ 13 Sept 201119 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

20. Most Important Predictors Same predictors most important in all basins However, rank of importance varies NORMALIZED COEFFICIENTSNATLNEPNWPNIOSIOSPAC Clim Formation Prob1.6 0.91.61.51.4 Circulation (850-mb)1.3 1.51.91.51.8 Cold Cloud Coverage0.7 0.90.60.80.7 Distance to Existing TC0.70.61.00.70.60.7 N. Indian Ocean S. Indian Ocean N.W. Pacific S. Pacific N.E. Pacific N. Atlantic S. Atlantic 20 64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference 3 March 2010

21. Main Page 13 Sept 201121 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

22. Each Basin 13 Sept 201122 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

23. Each Basin 13 Sept 201123 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

24. S. Hemisphere (2009) 243 March 2010

25. Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) Product – S. Hemisphere 2010 Verification Example: Cumulative TCFP formation probabilities over SW Pacific sub-basin (blue), climatology (black) and observed times within 24hrs of TC formation (red circles). Red Circles on Peaks  Hits Peaks without red circles  False Alarms Red circles not on peaks  Misses

26. CIRA/RAMMB TC-Realtime What it is Real-time global tropical cyclone information portal –Current storm details (JTWC) –Recent histories –Imagery –Special products –Experimental products Historical archive What it is not Official Operational Tied to the RMSC forecasts/advisories (save Miami/Honolulu) http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ 13 Sept 201126 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

27. Currently Active Storms 13 Sept 201127 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

28. Active Storm 13 Sept 201128 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

29. Some Useful Products Infrared Image LoopsAMSU Image Loops Also 2-km version with a BD enhancement applied for Dvorak analysis SH192011 - Tropical Cyclone BUNE 13 Sept 201129 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

30. Some Useful Products AMSU-based Intensities AMSU-based shear / deep layer mean flow. Examples from ATU (2011) 13 Sept 201130

31. Some Useful Products Oceanic Heat ContentWater Vapor Imagery 13 Sept 201131 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop Courtesy of NRL (NCODA –based)

32. Summary This presentation provides a brief overview of operational services available from NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA/RAMMB that are applicable for monitoring and forecasting Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones A list of URLs discussed within are provided on the next slide. 13 Sept 201132 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

33. URLs Discussed http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/index.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/WindSATData.php http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/SSMIData.php http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/ http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ 13 Sept 201133 WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

34. Verification Summary 1995-2008 Brier skill scores and ROC skill scores –All positive  forecasts more skillful than climatology –Small  skill could be better Reliability –Overpredicts at high prob in N. Atl –Underpredicts at high probs in all other basins Gridbox-to-gridbox comparisons may be too strict –Consider fuzzy verification methods 34 64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference 3 March 2010