1. Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data T. Egorova *, E. Rozanov *,**, N. Hochmuth ***, A.I. Shapiro *, A.V. Shapiro *,**, and W. Schmutz * *PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland *** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland SOTERIA, 30 May–01 June 2011

2. Outline Project goals and components Model description and validation Demonstration of LyraViewer : visualization

3. Goals of the project Find out how well we understand the solar irradiance influence on the middle atmosphere Learn how to manage near-real- time operation and visualization

4. Nowcast of chemical composition in the middle atmosphere WP5 D5.3: Reconstructed SSI data for 120-680 nm SOTERIA: Th. Dudok de Wit and L. E. A. Viera WP5 D5.3: Reconstructed SSI data for 120-680 nm SOTERIA: Th. Dudok de Wit and L. E. A. Viera Nowcast of anomalies of neutral and charged species with free running CICM SOCOL i Nowcast of anomalies of neutral and charged species with free running CICM SOCOL i WP5 D5.4: Nowcasting results available online every 6 hours WP5 D5.4: Nowcasting results available online every 6 hours Output validation to improve the model and experimental set-up Output validation to improve the model and experimental set-up WP5 D5.4: CICM SOCOLi with SSI data from D5.3 WP5 D5.4: CICM SOCOLi with SSI data from D5.3 WP6 D6.5: Online publishing of the middle atmosphere chemical composition WP6 D6.5: Online publishing of the middle atmosphere chemical composition

5. Egorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010 CTM: Model for Evaluation of oZONe trends Rozanov et al. 1999, 2001 Egorova et al. 2001, 2003   t = 15 min for dynamics   t = 2 h for radiation  horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°)  vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa MEZON MA-ECHAM4 GCM: Middle Atmosphere version of the European Center/Hamburg Model 4 Manzini and McFarlane, 1998   t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry  41 chemical species  Electrons, 17 negative ions, 31 positive ions  Reactions: 118 gas-phase, 33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic  GCM-CTM coupling by O 3, H 2 O, CH 4, N 2 O, CFCs Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOL i

6. Model validation: 1.HEPPA comparison (High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere) Case-study SPE October-November 2003 O 3 : MIPAS observations 2. Case-study June-August 2004 OH : MLS observations 1.HEPPA comparison (High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere) Case-study SPE October-November 2003 O 3 : MIPAS observations 2. Case-study June-August 2004 OH : MLS observations

7. Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman-  line from the 2-month mean. Compiled by J. Lean

8. Electron density in the tropics Tropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm -3 ) Solar UV SPE GCR IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS model km

9. Ozone changes due to Haloween storm SPE Funke et al.,2011

10. SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004 Case study with CICM SOCOL i : Increase SSI by ~5% The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using any of availble data sets

11. Comparison with observations: Hydroxyl (tropical mean) June, July and August 2004 75 km

12. CCM SOCOL i output Mixing ratio of the chosen neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density for the 6 hour period after the last reconstructed SSI data Mixing ratio of the chosen neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density for the 6 hour period after the last reconstructed SSI data Charged components: O +, O 2 +, O 4 +, N +, NO +, N 2 +, H 2 O 2 +, H 3 O +,O 2 + ∙N 2, O 2 + ∙H 2 O, H 3 O + ∙OH, NO + ∙H 2 O, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 3, NO + ∙CO 2, NO + ∙N 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙CO 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙N 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 3, H + ∙(H 2 O) 4, H + ∙(H 2 O) 5, H + ∙(H 2 O) 6, H + ∙(H 2 O) 7, H 3 O + ∙CO 2, H 3 O + ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2 e¯,O¯, O 2 ¯, O 3 ¯, O 4 ¯, OH¯, CO 3 ¯, CO 4 ¯, NO 2 ¯, NO 3 ¯, HCO 3 ¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH 3 ¯,O 2 ¯∙H 2 O, NO 3 ¯∙H 2 O, CO 3 ¯∙H 2 O Neutral components: O 3, O *, O, O 2 *, NO, HO 2, ClO, NO 2, OH, NO 3, N 2 O 5, HNO 3,HONO 3, ClONO 2, Cl, N, N *, H 2 O 2, H, HOCl, Cl 2, Cl 2 O 2, HCl, Br, CH 2 O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO 3, BrCl, CH 3, CH 3 O 2, CH 3 O, HCO, CH 3 O 2 H, H 2 O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N 2 O, CH 4, CO, H 2, CBrF 3 Charged components: O +, O 2 +, O 4 +, N +, NO +, N 2 +, H 2 O 2 +, H 3 O +,O 2 + ∙N 2, O 2 + ∙H 2 O, H 3 O + ∙OH, NO + ∙H 2 O, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 3, NO + ∙CO 2, NO + ∙N 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙CO 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙N 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 3, H + ∙(H 2 O) 4, H + ∙(H 2 O) 5, H + ∙(H 2 O) 6, H + ∙(H 2 O) 7, H 3 O + ∙CO 2, H 3 O + ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2 e¯,O¯, O 2 ¯, O 3 ¯, O 4 ¯, OH¯, CO 3 ¯, CO 4 ¯, NO 2 ¯, NO 3 ¯, HCO 3 ¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH 3 ¯,O 2 ¯∙H 2 O, NO 3 ¯∙H 2 O, CO 3 ¯∙H 2 O Neutral components: O 3, O *, O, O 2 *, NO, HO 2, ClO, NO 2, OH, NO 3, N 2 O 5, HNO 3,HONO 3, ClONO 2, Cl, N, N *, H 2 O 2, H, HOCl, Cl 2, Cl 2 O 2, HCl, Br, CH 2 O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO 3, BrCl, CH 3, CH 3 O 2, CH 3 O, HCO, CH 3 O 2 H, H 2 O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N 2 O, CH 4, CO, H 2, CBrF 3 4D: latitude, longitude, altitude, time 4D: latitude, longitude, altitude, time

13. Output parameters: Neutral: O 3, NO, NO 2, OH, H 2 O Charged: e -, e*, total p + Thermo-dyn.: T, den, GPH Homepage: http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/

14. Snap-shot of visualization package

16. Conclusions and outlook Model has been developed and validated, it reasonably reproduces the resposnse of the middle atmosphere to the variability of SSI and particles Visualization software has been developed Online publishing of chemical composition of the middle atmosphere from nowcasting CCM with input from reconstrustions of SSI (D6.5) Online operational nowcast of the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere (D5.4) Some things left to polish: homepage, visualization package

17. PMOD/WRC, Davos End of the presentation… Thank you!!!

18. What has been done? 1)Development CCM with ion chemistry: CICM SOCOL i 2)Model validation has been performed (e.g. HEPPA) 3)Visualization software has been developed 4)CICM SOCOL i working with reconstructed SSI from WP5 D5.3 5)On-line publishing of the model data (D5.3) 6)On-line nowcasting of the middle atmosphere parameters