1. March 22, 2005Icecube Collaboration Meeting, LBL How guaranteed are GZK ’s ? How guaranteed are GZK ’s ? Carlos Pena Garay IAS, Princeton ~

2. Somewhat soon … Icecube international collaboration is working on the contruction of the detector. PY06, november 5, 03:12. Neutrino event is observed with energy of 10 18 eV Direction :  =60 o,  =10 h Madison, we’ve got a GZK Does it make sense?

3. GZK neutrinos N +  N  Standard scenario: proton propagation through  CMB Energy losses : photoproduction, pair production, and adiabatic losses. Propagation well understood. Uncertainties are in the inputs : - Uniformly distributed sources - Energy at CRs extragalactic dominance - Maximum CR energy - Injected spectrum - Source evolution - Other photon targets, other hadron sources Greisen, Zatsepin, Kuzmin, 1966

4. Calculations C++ Code : Event generator : minimum bias photohadron interactions (a la sophia) Extensions (in progress. Scheduled for june, implemented with current propag. in Earth) - higher nucleus Oscillations are included in the output Mucke, Engel, Rachen, Protheroe, Stanev, astro-ph/9903478

5. Formulae : Input parameters Astrophysical UHECRs j by uniformly distributed sources

6. Is SFR tracing the UHECRs sources? Smail, Ivison, Blain, Kneib, MNRAS 2002 Inferences of : (1+z) n f(z,z min,z max )

7. HiRes vs AGASA data ? Inferences of : E -  g(E,E min,E max ) Use compatibility of data samples (2  ) Use uniform source distribution Use composition

8. HiRes data

9. Engel, Seckel, Stanev, astro-ph/0101216 Waxman, Bahcall, hep-ph/9807282 Waxman, 1995

10. HiRes data Ahlers, Anchordoqui, Goldberg, Halzen, Ringwald, Weiler, astro-ph/0503229 Seckel, Stanev, astro-ph/0502244  +n>2.5 dominance at higher z Berezinsky, Gazizov, Grigorieva, 1988, astro-ph/0204357, astro-ph/040347, astro-ph/0502550 Different models fit the CR spectrum : 2.0<  <2.8 0<n<4.5 Fodor, Katz, Ringwald, Tu, hep-ph/0309171

11. HiRes data Ahlers, Anchordoqui, Goldberg, Halzen, Ringwald, Weiler, astro-ph/0503229 Seckel, Stanev, astro-ph/0502244  +n>2.5 dominance at higher z Berezinsky, Gazizov, Grigorieva, 1988, astro-ph/0204357, astro-ph/040347, astro-ph/0502550 Different models fit the CR spectrum : 2.0<  <2.8 0<n<4.5 Fodor, Katz, Ringwald, Tu, hep-ph/0309171 More with Auger : Confirm GZK feature : Guaranteed Improved spectrum and composition

12. A short trip : Wave packets, Neutrino osc. Same result

13. The Neutrino Matrix :SM +  mass 3  ranges  1  ranges  Gonzalez-Garcia, Maltoni, PG, 2004

14. Neutrino mixing  decay : Mass neutrino ratios at the Earth    pdf

15. Neutrino mixing  decay : Flavor neutrino ratios at the Earth   e pdf

16. Predicted GZK spectra : minimal ? _ E 2      GeVcm -2 s -1 sr -1 E ( GeV) If cosmic rays are mainly p (>50%) and uniformly distributed sources following the star formation rate, the total muon neutrinos at the Earth peaks 10 -8 GeVcm -2 s -1 sr -1 at 6 10 9 GeV

17. Predicted GZK spectra : _ E 2      GeVcm -2 s -1 sr -1 E ( GeV) If cosmic rays are mainly p (>50%) and uniformly distributed sources following the star formation rate, the total muon neutrinos at the Earth peaks at 10 -8 GeVcm -2 s -1 sr -1 at 6 10 9 GeV Model dependent : goes up to experimental limits

18. Conclusion If IceCUBE sees a GZK neutrino soon : a big surprise If GZK neutrinos are measured somewhere above the conservative calculation, GZK neutrinos have a lot to say of the main inputs needed in the calculation: How large is the extragalactic component in the UHECRs Information on the source evolution of the UHECRs sources Ahlers, Anchordoqui, Goldberg, Halzen, Ringwald, Weiler, astro-ph/0503229 Seckel, Stanev, astro-ph/0502244