1. California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016-2026 Revised Electricity Forecast: LADWP Planning Area December 17, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Demand Analysis Office Malachi.Weng-Gutierrez@energy.ca.gov 1

2. California Energy Commission Forecast Summary Drop in electricity consumption in mid case not as severe as for IOUs because of less impact from new standards Sales forecast reduced compared to CEDU 2014 because of higher PV forecast New mid case peak forecast matches CEDU 2014 in 2026 because of higher starting point 2

3. California Energy Commission LADWP Baseline Electricity Consumption CED 2015 Preliminary mid case slightly below CEDU 2014 mid case in 2025 (~400 GWh) 3

4. California Energy Commission LADWP Baseline Electricity Sales New mid case grows at 0.47% per year (2014-2025) compared to 0.97% for CEDU 2014 mid case 4

5. California Energy Commission LADWP Baseline Peak Demand Higher weather-normalized starting point, lower growth in new mid case vs. CED 2014 5

6. California Energy Commission LADWP PV Energy CED 2015 Revised mid case more than double CEDU 2014 mid case in 2025 6

7. California Energy Commission LADWP PV Peak Impacts CED 2015 Revised mid case corresponds to around 450 MW capacity in 2026 7

8. California Energy Commission LADWP Light-Duty EV Energy Corresponds to around 250,000 EVs in 2026 in the mid case 8

9. California Energy Commission LADWP Committed Efficiency Around 3,500 GWh savings from codes and standards in 2014 9

10. California Energy Commission Efficiency Programs: EM&V Adjustment Net effect: +145 GWh in 2014, +40 GWh in 2026 10

11. California Energy Commission Additional Impacts Climate change –25 GWh in 2026 in mid case, 33 GWh in high case –40 MW in 2026 in mid case, 65 MW in high case Electrification: 165 GWh in 2026 in mid case, 300 GWh in high case 11

12. California Energy Commission Growth in Electricity Consumption by Climate Zone, 2014-2026 Climate ZoneCoastalInland High Case 1.04%1.11% Mid Case 0.62%0.78% Low Case 0.01%0.24% 12

13. California Energy Commission Growth in Peak Demand by Climate Zone, 2015-2026 Climate ZoneCoastalInland High Case 0.86%0.99% Mid Case 0.40%0.61% Low Case -0.58%-0.20% 13

14. California Energy Commission AAEE Savings: Peak MW YearHigh-LowMid-MidLow-High 2016 118123127 2020 410458469 2026 505610632 14

15. California Energy Commission AAEE Savings: GWh YearHigh-LowMid-MidLow-High 2016 469476517 2020 1,6771,8921,927 2026 1,9352,3782,396 15

16. California Energy Commission Impact of AAEE on LADWP Baseline Mid Case Sales, Mid AAEE Savings 16

17. California Energy Commission Impact of AAEE on LADWP Baseline Mid Case Peak, Mid AAEE Savings 17