1. Impact of climate change on the global oceanic sink of CO 2 Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia and British Antarctic Survey

2. Smith and Reynolds 2005 and IPCC 2007 water energy observed warming trend 1979-2005 decadal changes in the earth’s physical system winds

3. geological reservoirs fossil fuel emissions land use change land sink ocean sink 7.2 1.5 2.3 2.2 atmosphere 4.2 2000-2005 CO 2 budget (GtC/y) Global Carbon Project, Canadell et al. 2007

4. decadal trend in the Airborne Fraction  atm CO 2 CO 2 emissions (FF + Land Use) gain of 0.053 (p = 0.89) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 time Airborne fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

5. geological reservoirs fossil fuel emissions land use change land sink ocean sink 7.2 1.5 2.3 2.2 atmosphere 4.2 2000-2005 CO 2 budget (GtC/y) Global Carbon Project, Canadell et al. 2007

6. physical transport CO 2 chemical reactions atmosphere ocean biological activity

7. Mauna Loa observatory (Hawaii) Alert (Canada) Palmer (Antarctica)

8. Alert (Canada) Palmer (Antarctica) atmospheric CO 2 time (y)

9. Alert (Canada) Palmer (Antarctica) atmospheric CO 2

10. Atmospheric Inverse Model: C measured ↔ C modeled = Af +c o model and approach: Christian Rödenbeck

11. CO 2 sink (PgC/y) expected trend Le Quéré, Rödenbeck, Buitenhuis et al. 2007 change in Southern Ocean CO 2 sink

12. data from Takahashi et al., DSR (2008) Feely et al., 2006, Schuster and Watson, 2007, Takahashi et al., 2006 deseasonalised observations, evenly distributed over 3 decades longest data series from: Richard Feely, Cathy E. Cosca, Rik Wanninkhof, David W. Chipman, Colm Sweeney, Andrew Watson, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Ute Schuster, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue, Masao Ishii and T. Modorikawa, Y. Nojiri, Jon Olafsson, C. S. Wong., Arne Kroetzinger, Bronte Tilbrook, Truls Johannessen and Are Olsen. trend in oceanic pCO 2 1981-2007 (uatm/y) 1.6 0.4 2.8

13. data from Takahashi et al., DSR (2008) Feely et al., 2006, Schuster and Watson, 2007, Takahashi et al., 2006 deseasonalised observations, evenly distributed over 3 decades longest data series from: Richard Feely, Cathy E. Cosca, Rik Wanninkhof, David W. Chipman, Colm Sweeney, Andrew Watson, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Ute Schuster, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue, Masao Ishii and T. Modorikawa, Y. Nojiri, Jon Olafsson, C. S. Wong., Arne Kroetzinger, Bronte Tilbrook, Truls Johannessen and Are Olsen. trend in oceanic pCO 2 1981-2007 (uatm/y) 1.6 0.4 2.8

14. PISCES-T ecosystem model 2 phyto, 2 zoo., 2 sinking particles limitation by Fe, P, and Si initialise with observations in 1948 (Buitenhuis et al., GBC 2006) identifying the processes with the OPA model OPA General Circulation model 0.5-1.5 o x2 o resolution 31 vertical levels calculated vertical mixing NCEP daily forcing

15. SSMI winds (Wentz et al 2007)updated from Reynolds and Smith (1994) Obs NCEP NCEP 2 Trends 1982-2007 SST1988-2007 winds +1°C +0.4 m/s

16. Obs CO 2 only Trends in ocean pCO 2 (uatm/y) Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.

17. Obs NCEP NCEP 2 Trends in ocean pCO 2 (uatm/y) Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep. CO 2 and climate

18. CO 2 sink (PgC/y) CO 2 only Time (y) change in Global Ocean CO 2 sink Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep. CO 2 and climate

19. Atmospheric inversion Ocean model CO 2 and climateCO 2 only globe- 0.09 ± 0.190.120.32 north0.04 ± 0.040.05 tropics- 0.13 ± 0.130.010.14 south- 0.01 ± 0.050.060.13 Trend in ocean CO 2 sink (PgC/y per decade, 1981-2007) difference of 0.20 PgC/y per decade Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.

20. PISCES-T ecosystem model 2 phyto, 2 zoo., 2 sinking particles limitation by Fe, P, and Si initialise with observations in 1948 (Buitenhuis et al., GBC 2006) identifying the processes with the OPA model OPA General Circulation model 0.5-1.5 o x2 o resolution 31 vertical levels calculated vertical mixing NCEP daily forcing no T effect on CO 2 constant fluxes Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.

21. Climate only combinedtempwindfluxes globe-0.20-0.04-0.17-0.03 north-0.01-0.03-0.010.01 tropics-0.13-0.01-0.10-0.03 south-0.06-0.01-0.06-0.01 Trend in ocean CO 2 sink (PgC/y per decade, 1981-2007) ~50% of recent trends in ocean CO 2 sink can be attributed to human activities Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.

22. the Airborne Fraction  atm CO 2 CO 2 emissions (FF + Land Use) (p = 0.89) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 time Airborne fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS trend in airborne fraction: 0.07 PgC/y per decade trend in ocean CO 2 sink from climate (since 1981): 0.20 PgC/y per decade

24. modelled change in carbon storage (μmol/L) 1000 2000 3000 4000 depth (m)

25. modelled change in surface pH 1000 2000 3000 4000 depth (m) -0.05 0

26. 1981-2004 conditions deep ocean C deep = 2260 C surface = 2120 higher winds causes CO 2 outgassing human CO 2 emissions 65ºS 35ºS

27. conditions under very high atmospheric CO 2 deep ocean C deep = 2260 C surface > 2260 human CO 2 emissions higher winds causes CO 2 uptake 65ºS35ºS

28. >100 years after CO 2 emissions stop deep ocean C deep = 2260 +  C C surface = 2120 +  C higher winds causes CO 2 outgassing 65ºS35ºS

29. Raupach et al., 2007 fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the world