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2. CONTENT Water Management in Turkey Studies on Climate Change Impacts Into Water Resources 2

3. 3 Annual Precipitation : 501 billion m 3 Annual Usable Surface Water : 98 billion m 3 Annual Usable Ground Water : 14 billion m 3 Annual Total Usable Water : 112 billion m 3 Population of Turkey (2010) : 74 million Annual Water Amount per person : ~1500 (m 3 /person-year) WATER POTENTIAL IN TURKEY

4. 4 Irrigation: 34 billion m 3 (74%) Irrigation: 72 billion m 3 (%64) Domestic: 7 billion m 3 (%15) Domestic : 18 billion m 3 (%16) Industry: 5 b illion m 3 (%11) Industry: 22 billion m 3 (%20) TOTAL : 46 billion m 3 TOTAL: 112 billion m 3 SECTORAL WATER SECTORAL WATER CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY 2010 2023

5. WATER RELATED INSTITUTIONS IN TURKEY ( CURRENT STRUCTURE ) PRIME MINISTRY MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRS DG Water Management General Directorate of Combating Desertification and Erosion General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks GD of SHW GD of Forestry GD of Meteorology MINISTRY OF FOOD, AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK General Directorate of Agriculture Reform General Directorate of Fishery and Fishery Products MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND URBANIZATION MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND URBANIZATION GD of Environment Management GD of Enviromental Impact Assesment and Planning GD of Disaster Affairs GD of Provincial Bank GD of Natural Heritage MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS GD of Local Authorities GD of Provincial administration MINISTRY OF HEALTH Presidency of Sanitation Centre Presidency of Health Group MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURIZM GD of Publicity 5

6. MAIN DUTY Policy development for the protection, development and usage of water resources And to coordinate water management issues both at national and international scale. 6

7. FIGHTING AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE Mitigation – Controlling, decreasing and absorption of the GHGs Adaptation – The process of combatting against climate change impacts… 7

8. NEED FOR ADAPTATION Even in the case of stopping all GHG emissions, climate will continue to change. Poor people and poverty areas will mostly be affected. Climate change is a development problem. To minimize economical, social and environmental effects and risks 8

9. HOW TO ADAPT? CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES PROJECT 9

10. 25 River Basins Covering 783.562 km² 10 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

11.  Started on 18th December 2013, the project aims  to determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on surface and underground water bodies  to identify the adaptation activities, implementation region based on river basin districts covering whole Turkey.  It is envisaged to be completed in July,2016. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES PROJECT 11

12.  4 main outcomes of the Project: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES PROJECT 1 Preparation of climate change projections for all river basins in Turkey 2 Determination of the change in groundwater and surface water budget for all basins 3 Running hydrological and hydraulic models to estimate the flow dynamics 4 Sectoral impaact analysis (for the main sectors of domestic water, agriculture, industry, ecosystem) of climate change with respect to water resources in 3 basins 12

13. PROJECT STEPS 13 Climate Projections Hydrological Modelling Hydraulic Modelling Sectoral Vulnerability Adaptation Measures ClimaHydro Database Projections for the period of 2015-2100

14.  3 GCMs and Regional Climate Model  RCP4.5 mild scenario  RCP8.5 severe scenario 2 hydrological models are being run:  SWAT  WEAP  Projection period: 2015-2100  Reference period:  1971-2000 14  HadGEM2S  MPI  IPSL HecRas http://iklim.ormansu.gov.tr/

15. INTERIM RESULTS 15

16. MPI Model_Mean Temperature RF ve RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100) 16

17. MPI Model_Total Precipitation RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100) 17

18. HadGEM2-ES Snow Cover RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2050) 18

19. HadGEM2-ES Snow Cover RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2050-2100) 19

20. Projections for “Climate Indices” Indicator NameDefinition Frost daysAnnual count when TN(daily minimum)<0ºC Summer daysAnnual count when TX(daily maximum)>25ºC Cool nightsPercentage of days when TN<10th percentile Cool daysPercentage of days when TX<10th percentile Warm nightsPercentage of days when TN>90th percentile Warm daysPercentage of days when TX>90th percentile Summer daysAnnual count when TX > 25ºC Warm spell duration indicator Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX>90th percentile Cold spell duration indicator Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN<10th percentile Diurnal temperature rangeMonthly mean difference between TX and TN Max 5-day precipitationMonthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation Max 1-day precipitationMonthly maximum 1-day precipitation Number of heavy precipitation daysAnnual count of days when PR >= 10mm Number of very heavy precipitation daysAnnual count of days when PR >= 20mm Number of very heavy precipitation daysAnnual count of days when PR >= 25mm Consecutive dry daysMaximum number of consecutive days with PR < 1mm Consecutive wet daysMaximum number of consecutive days with PR >= 1mm 17 indices 30 years mean Map display 20

21. HadGEM2-ES FD0 Climate Index RF ve RCP8.5 Number of Frost Days_ 30 years 21

22. HadGEM2-ES Model- CDD Climate Index RF ve RCP4.5 Number of Consecutive Dry Days_30 years 22

23. Temperature Indices-I 23 Frost Days Cold Nights Cold Days Cold Air Wave

24. Temperature Indices-II 24 Hot Nights Hot Days Heat Wave Summer Days- 25 Summer Days- 35

25. Precipitation Indices 25 5 Days Max Precip. 1 Day Max Precip. Consecuti ve Wet days Heavy Precip.Day Very Heavy Precip.Day Consecutive Dry Days

26. Water Potential 26  Total water potential  1 GCM  2 scenario

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28. Hydraulic Projections HecRAS model For this basin, 3 control cross sections 28

29. Doğu Akdeniz River Basin Check Point: DAN_037_ KE 21000 HadGEM2-ES_RCP4.5 %5 %50 %95 Flow Continuity Projections Period/Flowr ate (m3/sec) High Flowrate (5%) Medium Flowrate (50%) Low Flowrate (95%) Reference2728425 2015-203936110725 2040-20693538920 2070-20993027918 RISK FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS 29

30. Flow Continuity Curves Observed vs Model Comparison Doğu Akdeniz River Basin Check Point: DAN_037_ KE 21000 NO OVERESTIMATION/ UNDERESTIMATION OF THE RISKS 30

31. Flow Continuity Projections At Estuary RE-CONTROLLING THE CONSISTENCY OF THE PROJECTIONS 31

32. Mean Flowrate at Estuary 32 INTERMODEL COMPARISON

33. Sectoral Vulnerability 1 Preparation of climate change projections for all river basins in Turkey 2 Determination of groundwater budget and the change in surface water levels for all basins 3 Running modeling studies for water budget in all basins 4 Sectoral impaact analysis Domestic water, Agriculture, Industry, Ecosystem 33 Probable adaptation measures to be proposed or be obliged:: Flood Management Plans Drought Management Plans Grey water incentives Good agricultural practices Crop incentives Soft Measures Rainwater harvesting Flood protection measures Gradual decrease in distribution network losses Hard Measures

34. Last Words.. Climate Risk Management is vital in order to adapt. Best adaptation measures are based on reliable impact and sectoral vulnerability analysis. Climate change projections should be integrated at all levels of planning studies. 34

35. Thank you for your attention Ayse Y. COSGUN aycosgun@ormansu.gov.tr 35