1. Iraq invasion, 2003 Neocons versus realists: Another Vietnam?
John J. Mearsheimer: Hans Morgenthau and the Iraq war, realism vs. neo-conservatism (at: openDemocracy.net).

2. The neocons’ case for war
Unique situation since 1991: unipolar world
The United States can shape the world as the only remaining superpower.
Military power substitutes for diplomacy.
Strategy of fear forces all states to ‘bandwagon’ and follow U.S. power.
Attacking Iraq sends a message to N. Korea and Iran.
Spread democracy, if necessary, by violent means.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Hans Peter Schmitz

3. A realist view Neocons are “Wilsonians with teeth” (idealists).
Realist streak: use of military power
Idealist streak: desire to promote human rights/democracy.
Realist Objections
This is a ‘radical,’ not a conservative (prudent) foreign policy.
The efficacy of military force: States do not bandwagon in the face of threat, but redouble efforts to arm themselves (balancing).
The promotion of democracy: difficult to impossible when using military force.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Hans Peter Schmitz

4. Channeling Morgenthau
Mearsheimer (p. 3/4)
We live in a balancing, not bandwagoning world (‘domino’ theory is wrong).
Nationalism trumps democracy. Invading countries doesn’t spread democracy, but creates a nationalist backlash.
Winning the war, loosing the peace (p. 5).
Democracies violate human rights and are just as dangerous as authoritarian regimes.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Hans Peter Schmitz

5. Challenging Rationalism
Rational choice informs realism and institutionalism. Both agree that states act rationally, although they disagree about the preferences (security vs. economic gain).
Constructivism: a challenge to the assumptions about rational behavior.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Hans Peter Schmitz

6. Two Scenarios
Two scenarios addressing a humanitarian emergency (please choose one):
Program 1: 200 of the 600 people will be saved.
Program 2: 33% chance that all 600 people will be saved, and 66% chance that nobody will be saved.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Hans Peter Schmitz

7. Prospect theory Two other scenarios (please choose one):
Program 3: 400 people will die.
Program 4: there is a 33% chance that nobody will die, and a 66% chance that all 600 people will die.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Hans Peter Schmitz

8. Perceptions matter
"Unlike expected utility theory, prospect theory predicts that preferences will depend on how a problem is framed. If the reference point is defined such that an outcome is viewed as a gain, then the resulting value function will be concave and decision makers will tend to be risk averse. On the other hand, if the reference point is defined such that an outcome is viewed as a loss, then the value function will be convex and decision makers will be risk seeking.” Plous (1993) p 97
Friday, February 1, 2008
Hans Peter Schmitz