1. Analysis of the selection scheme, planning, preparation and execution of a terrorist attack Prof. Ing. Pavel NEČAS, PhD.

2. Objectives: Target selection Empirical applications of codification scheme Theoretical Model Terrorist Planning Cycle What You Can Do to Prepare for Terrorism Execution of a terrorist attacks

3. Target selection Three relevant questions regarding target selection: Who is targeted? Why are they targeted? How are they targeted? The analysis of who is targeted is necessary

4. The selectivity of violence Revolutionary or left-wing terrorism Ethno-nationalist terrorism Fascist or right-wing terrorism (also called black terrorism)

5. Empirical applications of codification scheme The potential empirical applications of codification scheme The cases of study are: Republican terrorism in Northern Ireland, Basque nationalist terrorism in Spain, revolutionary terrorism in Spain, revolutionary terrorism in Italy, and fascist terrorism in Italy

6. The reasons for restricting the analysis to fatalities are the following: killing is the most important activity for Tos, much more information about killings than about other terrorist activities, killings are clear events.

7. Theoretical Model Interaction between group ideology Target selection and government counterterror-ism strategy The model has two players: a terrorist group, an incumbent government.

8. The terrorist group chooses : to attack a civilian, security, political leadership or rival terrorist target. If a terrorist group decides not to attack, I standardize the payoff for both players to zero. If a terrorist group attacks a civilian population and the government does nothing in response,the group receives the payoff dc + ac while the government receives -dc. dc indicates the damageinicted on the government, which is a partial function of the number of victims killed in an attack.

9. This parameter takes a positive valuation for the group and negative valuation for the government. ac captures the support a particular attack receives from group members and the sympatheticcommunity. If a target falls within the ideological demarcation for acceptable victims of violence, ac takes a positive valuation.

10. If a terrorist group attacks a civilian population and the government pursues a forceful response, the group receives the payoff dc + ac - fc while the government receives -dc + yf + If - cf. fc is the damage the government's forceful response inflicts on the terrorist group. Yf is the decreasing marginal return to attacking groups as they age.

11. If captures both the damage a government has inflicted on terrorists in the past and the institutional history of a country's counterterrorism struggle. Security institutions are particularly sticky and difficult to overturn after they are established. Depending on the severity of the event, institutional responses may shift significantly but such a shift almost always follows a stochastic event.

12. Terrorist Planning Cycle Broad Target Selection Intelligence and Surveillance Specific Target Selection Pre-attack Surveillance and Planning Attack Rehearsal Actions on Objective Escape and Evasion

13. Phase I: Broad Target Selection Stories from newspapers and other media provide background information. Internet research provides data such as texts, pictures, blue prints, and video information. Potential targets are screened based on the intended objective and assesses areas such as : symbolic value, critical infrastructure points of failure, expected number of masscasualties, and potential to generate high profile media attention.

14. Phase II: Intelligence Gathering and Surveillance Elements of information typically gathered include: Practices/Procedures/Routines Residence and Workplace Transportation/Routes of Travel Security Measures

15. Phase III: Specific Target Selection Selection of a target for actual operational planning considers some of the following factors: Does success affect a larger audience than the immediate victim(s)? Will the target attract high profile media attention? Does success make the desired statement to the correct target audience(s)? Is the effect consistent with objectives of the group? Does the target provide an advantage to the group by demonstrating its capabilities? What are the costs versus benefits of conducting the operation?

16. Phase IV: Pre-attack Surveillance and Planning The type of surveillance employed depends on the target’s activities. The information gained is then used to: Conduct security studies. Conduct detailed preparatory operations. Recruit specialized operatives (if needed). Procure a base of operations in the target area (safe houses, caches, etc.). Design and test escape routes. Decide on type of weapon or attack

17. Phase V: Rehearsals Typical rehearsals include: Equipment and weapons training and performance. Staging for final preparatory checks. Deployment into target area. Actions on the objective. Escape routes

18. Phase VI: Actions on the Objective Since they are the attacker, they possess all the advantages of initiative and provide: Use of Surprise. Choice of time, place, and conditions of attack. Employment of diversions and secondary or follow-up attacks. Employment of security and support positions to neutralize target reaction forces and security measures.

19. Phase VII: Escape and Exploitation Escape plans are usually well rehearsed and executed. The exception is a suicide operation where the impact is enhanced by the willingness to die in achieving the attack Exploitation is the primary objective of the operation. The operation must be properly publicized to achieve an intended effect.

20. What You Can Do to Prepare for Terrorism Preparation for a terrorist attack must be done both at the personal and societal levels Attacks can be expected to provide maximum negative effect A terrorist attack is likely to disrupt the flow of electrical power and other utilities Transportation systems in large urban areas may become non operational

21. What You Can Do to Prepare for Terrorism In simplest terms, planning for a terrorist attack on a personal level would be most effective if the following minimum efforts were made: Take a course in first aid or CPR Have at least 2 weeks supply of food and water stored Keep some cash on hand in a secure place

22. What You Can Do to Prepare for Terrorism Install an alternative energy source in your shelter Practice safety drills regularly with your family Know evacuation routes from your city if available. Know and understand the emergency plans at children's day care centers or schools

23. Execution of a terrorist attacks In recent years, there has been an increased tendency for militant Islamist groups to incite the planning and execution of simple individual attacks. In Europe in recent years, there have been examples of terrorist acts carried out by extremist groups and individuals.

24. Execution of a terrorist attacks Experience from abroad shows that terrorists have preferred carrying out attacks against: public transportation, hotels, shopping centres, public places, primarily because they are easily accessible targets where a large number of people are assembled.

25. Execution of a terrorist attacks Terrorists often use : home-made bombs in their attacks, large bombs with significant explosive force, meaning that also relatively protected targets can be hit. At the same time, there is an interest among militant extremists in developing small bombs that are easy to hide and that may be able tocircumvent existing security measures.

26. Execution of a terrorist attacks Terrorists have also used: Modus operandi in the execution of terrorist attacks, Including the use of small arms, explosive charges, hostage-taking as applied.

27. A RAND Corporation study developed a framework to guide assessments of the availability of such information for planning attacks on the U.S. air, rail, and sea transportation infrastructure and applied the framework in a red-team information-gathering exercise. Based on the exercise, the study found the following: The ModIPB framework is a useful guide to identifying information relevant to the planning and execution of terrorist attacks