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CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici II Convegno nazionale di Oceanografia Operativa Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land.

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Presentation on theme: "CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici II Convegno nazionale di Oceanografia Operativa Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land."— Presentation transcript:

1 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici II Convegno nazionale di Oceanografia Operativa Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea Il Progetto ADRICOSM-STAR per gli impatti climatici Antonio Guarnieri In collaborazione con i partners di progetto Ministry for the Environment, Land, and Sea

2 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa At the World Summit on Sustainable Development of Johannesburg in September 2002, ADRICOSM was accepted as a Partnership in the cluster of oceans/coasts/fisheries. The Italian Ministry of Environment and Territory started an ADRICOSM Pilot Project in October 2001 to develop the monitoring and modelling of the Adriatic currents and ecosystem in order to detect changes and mitigate impacts Other Projects will start in 2004 that will continue the ADRICOSM developments The last of these projects is ADRICOSM-STAR: ADRICOSM INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA AND BOJANA RIVER CATCHMENT (funded by the Italian Ministry for Environment Land and Sea). Dec 2006 – Jun 2010 Genesis of ADRICOSM

3 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa The Projects Partners CMCC (Coordinator) INGV (Bologna)CIRSA (Bologna) SGI (Padova)UNITUS (La Tuscia) CNR-ISAC (Roma)OGS (Trieste) CNR-ISMAR-BOLOGNACETI (Podgorica) CNR-ISMAR-ANCONAIMB (Kotor) ENEA (La Spezia)HIM (Podgorica) ISPRA (Roma)IEWE (Tirana) CLU (Bologna)UB (Serbia) ERNST & YOUNG (Milano)SEWA (Serbia)

4 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa MODULEWORKPACKAGE NAMERESPONSIBLE PARTNER DESCRIPTIVE/ WP1- Assessment of environmental quality in the area of interest CETI OBSERVATIONAL MODULE WP2- Data collection program for model calibration/validation and monitoring upgrades IMB WP3- Design and implementation of in situ and satellite monitoring system HI-M MODELING/ WP4- Calibration/validation of hydrological, river basin and oceanographic numerical models INGV PREDICTIVE MODULE WP5- Integrated modeling of hydrology, river basin and coastal circulation SGI WP6- Scenario experiments for long term planning CMCC INFORMATION SYSTEM MODULE WP7- Information Management System for the ADRICOSM-STAR data ENEA The project working structure

5 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa The areas of interest Ulcinj Boka Kotorska Bay Bojana River and Skadar Lake Catchment Coastal Strip

6 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Continue and further develop the ADRICOSM forecasting system for the Adriatic Sea and its coastal areas with particular emphasis to the Montenegro coastal area. Develop high resolution hydro-meteorological modelling for the large Montenegro area; Design and partially implement a monitoring system for the surface water cycle and the water quality in the river and coastal area of Montenegro Develop and validate modelling tools for the urban, surface, underground water and coastal currents in the Bojana river catchment and Montenegro coastal area Produce downscaled IPCC climate change scenario projections to study impact on the water cycle and on the sediment transport in the Bojana river and the Montenegro coastal area Project main objectives

7 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa ADRICOSM-STAR water integrated monitoring and modelling approach Multidisciplinary Multi-platform Observing system (satellites, atmospheric and oceanographic stations, river, urban and underground water monitoring) Numerical models of the atmosphere, marine and river hydrodynamcs, underground waters coupled to water quality and sediment transport Climate change scenario simulations coupled to regional/local models input data to environmental managers and policy makers for EMERGENCY management and the PROTECTION of surface, underground, marine and urban waters

8 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa The main monitoring results 1 Water quality station in Bokakotorska Bay 1 Water quality station along the Bojana River 1 Hydrological station (Fraskanjel, with level and flow of the Bojana River) 1 Hydrological and mareographic station (Bar) 3 Meteorological stations (Bar, Herceg Novi, Ulcinj) Main procurement and new installations

9 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa The main monitoring results In situ and remote activities Consolidation of operational satellite monitoring and new operational Consolidation of VOS marine parameters and new meteorologiacal monitoring TSM CDOMK490Chl-a Jan 2009, Bari-Durres Temperature WIND

10 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa The main monitoring results In situ activities New mesoscale and seasonal cruises have been carried on along the coast of Montenegro Seasonal Surface Temperature NOVJANMAYJUN HR bathymetric and seismological campaigns carried out in the Bokakotorska bay and along the coastal area

11 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Models integration EBU-POM MIKE11 AREG SWAN Flow at SK Lake SSH at Bojana HYPROM Bojana Flow & sediment transport T 2m,U 10m,V 10m, CC,Pr,RelHum ATMOSPHERE RIVER HYDRAULICS HYDROLOGY OCEANGRAPHY

12 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Atmosphere: scenarios comparison

13 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Hydro-metereology: validation Dominio NMM a 12 km Ulcinj Ulcinj station Cumulated precipitation Year 2003 Podgorica station Flow,Year 2003

14 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Hydro-metereology: future scenarios

15 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Upstream boundary conditions: Upstream boundary conditions: HYPROM modelled water flow time series from Skadar Lake and Drin River HPP dams flow Downstream boundary condition: Downstream boundary condition: 2003 tide levels from oceanographic model Flow from Skadar Lake Flow from Drin River Downstream boundary Fluvial hydraulics: Buna/Bojana river model

16 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Fluvial hydraulics:Present and future scenario Observed Yearly Mean= 646.78 mc/s (years1965-1985) Simulated Yearly Mean= 482.30 mc/s OBS climatology (1965-1985) Simulated Mike11

17 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici II Convegno nazionale di Oceanografia Operativa Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea Fluvial hydraulics: future scenario

18 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Oceanography: comparison of scenarios WINTER TEMPERATURE AND CURRENTS (2m) SUMMER TEMPERATURE AND CURRENTS (2m) Present (2003-2008) Future (2025-2030)

19 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Oceanography: time evolution of basin mean surface temperature and salinity ECMWF EBU

20 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Wave model: climate scenario results Number of sea storms in 1 year - 5 year average Sea storms duration – 5 year average Standard deviation of the sea storms duration – 5 year average Significant wave hight of the sea storm peak – 5 year average

21 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa ADRICOSM-STAR at work: the January 2010 flood event Extreme rain falls from December last year until January 10th 2010, caused serious material damage. Great number of houses in the surrounding area of the Skadar Lake, the municipality of Ulcinj, have been flooded. Some 1100 persons or 245 households had to be evacuated Buna-Drin junction, Flood of January 2010

22 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa Buna/Bojana River Water Level (cm) at Fraskanjel Main Flood Event ADRICOSM-STAR at work: Water level from Fraskanjel station and from the circulation model

23 CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia Operativa CONCLUSIONS Adricosm-Star project has succesfully buit up a multidisciplinary monitoring/modeling integrated platform in the area of Montenegro Climate change impact studies on the water resource have been carried on for the first time at a local regional scale in the Adriatic/Montenegrin area This integration constitutes the foundations for the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for: water level extremes early warning climate change water resources scenarios in the 2020-2030

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