1. Localized heavy rains over southwestern and northeastern Ethiopia Heavy rains fell locally over southern parts of Sudan Africa Briefing April 19, 2011 Miliaritiana Robjhon miliaritiana.robjhon@noaa.gov

2. Atmospheric circulation for the last 7 days 850 hPa wind anomalies200 hPa wind anomalies Dryness in eastern Africa is associated with weak low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level anomalous trough

3. Rainfall Anomaly (mm) 7-Day 30-Day Last weekThis week In general, rainfall deficits are growing in magnitude and extent

4. Seasonal (MAR 1 – Present) Precipitation Anomaly Last weekThis week Rainfall deficits > 100mm

5. Start of the Season: As of 1 st Dekad of April March-May seasonMarch-November season Local areas in southern Ethiopia, Sudan, and Kenya experience 3-4 dekads late start for the season

6. Crop Conditions WRSI As of 1 st Dekad of April Long-rains (Maize) March-May rainfall season

7. Time series of rainfall at individual location YAMBIO ~ -50mm KIBREMENGIST Seen no rain since the last 30 days, with < -60mm

8. Dryness extends to neighboring countries MOYO ~ -50mm < -70mm ELDORET BAIDOA Despite moderate rains that fell recently, deficits remain

9. Precipitation Outlook for the GHA Increased chance for above-average rainfall over central and southwestern Ethiopia, southeastern Sudan, northern Uganda, and western Kenya GFS 7-day forecast suggests light to moderate rains over dryness-stricken regions of GHA

10. Quick look over southern Africa Stark reduction of rainfall as southern African rainbelt is shifting to the north

11. Rainfall Anomaly (mm) 7-Day 30-Day Last weekThis week During the last 7 days, rainfall remained near average over much of southern Africa During the last 30 days, wet (dry) conditions subsided (strengthened) over western (eastern) southern Africa

12. DAILY WRSI 17 APRIL 201111 APRIL 2011 There was not much change in crop conditions as the southern Africa rainfall season is winding down

13. Precipitation forecast for southern Africa Heavy rains are expected over central Angola and coastal Tanzania Elsewhere, light to moderate rains are expected during the next week

14. West Africa Increase in rainfall over southern Guinea, eastern Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire, and southeastern Nigeria Reduction in rainfall observed over southern Togo, Burkina Faso, and southern Benin.

15. Rainfall Anomaly (mm) 30-Day 7-Day Last week This week Wet conditions observed over southern Cote d’Ivoire and southern Ghana, while dry conditions strengthened over Nigeria

16. Precipitation Outlook for the Gulf of Guinea regions Increased chance for above-average rainfall over the Gulf of Guinea and parts of western equatorial Africa regions GFS 7-day forecast suggests heavy rains locally over eastern Guinea, southern Sierra Leone, and southwestern Burkina Faso for during the next week

17. Rainfall measurements during the last 24 hours

18. Latest IR satellite imagery

19. Proposed new dryness/drought polygon