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Brad O’Connor, Ph.D. Chief Economist FloridaRealtors®

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Presentation on theme: "Brad O’Connor, Ph.D. Chief Economist FloridaRealtors®"— Presentation transcript:

1 Brad O’Connor, Ph.D. Chief Economist FloridaRealtors® brado@floridarealtors.org

2  “Expect home sales to increase about 10 percent”  “Home values should rise at historical rates, around 4-5 percent”

3 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services

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5  Up 12.4% statewide compared to last year  Up 18.6% in Q1 compared to Q1 last year  Up 15.0% in Q2 compared to Q2 last year  Up 14.7% in Q3 compared to Q3 last year  Up 2.0% in Q4 compared to Q4 last year

6  Up 6.1% statewide compared to last year  Up 7.1% in Q1 compared to Q1 last year  Up 7.3% in Q2 compared to Q2 last year  Up 8.9% in Q3 compared to Q3 last year  Up 0.8% in Q4 compared to Q4 last year

7 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services

8  Up 10.1% compared to last year  Up 8.3% in Q1 compared to Q1 last year  Up 11.1% in Q2 compared to Q2 last year  Up 9.8% in Q3 compared to Q3 last year  Up 11.4% in Q4 compared to Q4 last year

9  Up 7.1% compared to last year  Up 7.4% in Q1 compared to Q1 last year  Up 9.2% in Q2 compared to Q2 last year  Up 7.9% in Q3 compared to Q3 last year  Up 6.3% in Q4 compared to Q4 last year

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13 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by CoreLogic and Florida’s multiple listing services

14 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by CoreLogic

15 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services

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18 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the Florida Department of Revenue and Florida’s county property appraisers

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20  Population Growth

21 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census

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24 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida

25 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census

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30  Population Growth  Employment Growth

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32  Cyclical –  Caused by Economic Booms and Busts  Structural  – Caused by mismatch between skills of available workers and skills demanded by employers  Seasonal  – Caused by, well, seasonality  Frictional  – Caused by normal job transitions and economic growth

33 12-month averages reported; Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

34 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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47  Population Growth  Employment Growth  Financial Market Performance  Especially for areas with a sizeable retiree population or luxury market

48  Population Growth  Employment Growth  Financial Market Performance  Inventory of Existing Homes

49 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services

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52  Single Family Homes: 4.3 months’ supply  Down 16.8%, year-over-year  Condos/Townhouses: 5.4 months’ supply  Down 7.5%, year-over-year  Inventory listed for less than $200,000 is in short supply, especially in the Single Family Home market

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56  Population Growth  Employment Growth  Financial Market Performance  Inventory of Existing Homes  New Construction

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58 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census

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61  Population Growth  Employment Growth  Financial Market Performance  Inventory of Existing Homes  New Construction  Investor Participation in the Market

62 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census

63  Single Family Homes  In 2015, 36.0% of all closed sales were paid in cash  This is down from 41.3% in 2014  Condos/Townhomes:  In 2015, 67.4% of all closed sales were paid in cash  This is down from 63.1% in 2014

64 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services

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66  Population Growth  Employment Growth  Financial Market Performance  Inventory of Existing Homes  New Construction  Investor Participation in the Market  International Buyers

67 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

68 Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by the Florida Department of Revenue

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75  Population Growth  Employment Growth  Financial Market Performance  Inventory of Existing Homes  New Construction  Investor Participation in the Market  Foreign Buyers  Mortgage Rates and Availability

76  Population Growth  Employment Growth  Financial Market Performance  Inventory of Existing Homes  New Construction  Investor Participation in the Market  Foreign Buyers  Mortgage Rates and Availability  Inflation Rates

77  Inflation will pick up at some point but not in the immediate future  No threat of deflation, at least until next football season

78  Population Growth  Employment Growth  Financial Market Performance  Inventory of Existing Homes  New Construction  Investor Participation in the Market  Foreign Buyers  Mortgage Rates and Availability  Inflation Rates  Tallahassee

79  We’re the only state that has one  Affects businesses of all sizes  Statutory tax burden is not actual tax burden  No, your car is not covered

80  Expect existing home sales to increase about 8-10 percent  Existing home prices will likely rise about 5 percent

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