1. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Analysis of Operational Plans for Precautionary Evacuation using Decision Theory Paul Kailiponi Researcher – ERGO Project kailipop@aston.ac.uk www.astoncrisis.com

2. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Outline 1.Applied Decision Theory Prescriptive analysis Contextual limitations to Decision Theory 2.Model specification Value function specification Probability specification 3.Substantive results for preventative evacuation Sample policy comparison –Improvements to hazard forecasting Practitioner feedback 4.Conclusions and broadening scope

3. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Applied Decision Theory Systematic approach to decision-making Utilizing Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) theories –Individual or small group decision-making –Subjective utility and probability elicitation –State-based preference Prescriptive Decision Theory for emergency management –Evacuation decision-making –Focus on providing insights into the decision-making process –NO attempt at creating a descriptive model Theoretical contributions –Identification of appropriate values for evacuation management –Multiple prescriptive uses through substantial practitioner participation Identification of risk thresholds & policy analysis

4. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Contextual Limitations Emergency management for catastrophic events –Limited n-size –Mixture of objective and subjective data SEU limitations –Elicitation process difficulties –Utility elicitation –General practitioner aversion to mathematical models of decision-making Elicitation trade-off toward requisite modelling SEU and Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) Prescriptive Focus

5. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Model Specification – Utility Function Identifying evacuation values Evacuation Responsiveness by Government Organizations (ERGO) –Ten participating countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Japan, Poland, Spain, Sweden, UK) –80+ interviews, 150+ documents –Various hazards Advantages to breadth of data-gathering –Maximize confidence that all values are identified (Bond 2007) –Verify subsets of values conditional on hazard/threat

6. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Evacuation Attribute List

7. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Objective Function Specification For any given emergency context: Axiomatic verification Multi-attribute utility function –Additive function Single utility function

8. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Single Utility Function Elicitation Elicitation Trade-off –Theoretical complexity vs. Practitioner participation Utility assessment process –Value and measurement identification –Axiomatic verification –Utility assessment – Certainty Equivalence (CE) Software support –Weight (k) assessment –Utility (u(x)) assessment

9. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Probability Function Specification Identification of key uncertainties –Storm-tide predictions –(Casualty rates | Storm-tide levels) –(Casualty rates | Traffic conditions) –(Evacuee Compliance | Official Order) Mixture of subjective and objective probabilities

10. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Influence Diagram

11. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Risk Threshold Analysis The evacuation dilemma 12 Hour Storm-tide risk thresholds

12. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Risk Threshold Analysis 9 Hour Storm-tide risk thresholds

13. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Decision Theory Risk Thresholds vs. Existing Risk Thresholds At 12 hour –MAUT: Initial evacuation actions taken at forecasts of 640 cm. –Actual risk thresholds based on experience: Initial evacuation actions taken at Practitioner Verification

14. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Policy Analysis Policy analysis –Forecast Improvement versus other policies Example of policy analysis –Given 1 million euro cost of evacuation –Probability of catastrophic storm surge –Improvements in forecasting precision can save the city €200,000 over 10 years in false evacuations Sensitivity analysis can provide additional insight

15. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Conclusion and Broadening Scope Theoretical contributions –Identification of appropriate values for evacuation management –Multiple prescriptive uses through substantial practitioner participation Risk threshold analysis Policy generation and analysis Broadening Scope –A generalized evacuation model for multiple hazards –Risk tolerance of various emergency organizations conditional on organizational system –Scenario building and training applications

16. Preparing Nations, Cities, Organisations and their People Questions? Comments?