1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 The State of the Church in Minnesota 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Minnesota, and what the complete “State of the Church in Minnesota” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Minnesota that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Minnesota Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Minnesota?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Minnesota will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Minnesota has an attendance percentage (23.2%) that is higher than the average for the nation (18.7%).

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Minnesota.

8. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use8 15.4% Saint Louis 16.1% Cass 16.5% Beltrami 16.5% Sherburne 16.7% Isanti 16.9% Anoka 17.1% Kanabec 17.8% Dakota 18.0% Pine 18.4% Chisago 18.9% Carlton 20.3% Itasca 20.6% Clay 21.1% Clearwater 21.9% Aitkin 22.0% Nicollet 22.2% Washington 22.4% Hennepin 22.5% Lake 22.5% Hubbard 22.7% Ramsey 22.7% Le Sueur 23.1% Scott 23.1% Cook 23.2% Wright 23.3% Rice 23.7% Roseau 23.7% Carver 24.3% Koochiching 24.6% Benton 24.9% Crow Wing 25.0% Meeker 25.8% Pennington 26.0% Todd 26.1% Freeborn 26.2% Pope 26.2% Blue Earth 26.3% Polk 26.6% Lyon 26.7% Goodhue 26.9% Winona 27.3% Becker 27.8% Norman 27.9% Chippewa 28.1% Kandiyohi 28.2% Mahnomen 28.2% Otter Tail 28.2% Wilkin 28.3% Dodge 29.0% Stearns 29.2% Douglas 29.4% Olmsted 29.7% Jackson 29.9% Morrison 30.0% Mower 30.3% Fillmore 30.6% Sibley 30.7% Lac Qui Parle 30.8% Steele 31.0% Kittson 31.2% Waseca 31.2% Yellow Medicine 31.3% McLeod 31.9% Lake Of The Woods 31.9% Brown 31.9% Watonwan 32.6% Swift 32.7% Traverse 33.3% Mille Lacs 33.7% Wabasha 33.8% Lincoln 33.8% Wadena 34.1% Faribault 34.5% Stevens 34.6% Marshall 35.0% Renville 35.0% Murray 35.3% Red Lake 36.2% Houston 36.8% Redwood 36.8% Martin 36.9% Big Stone 36.9% Grant 38.8% Rock 39.0% Nobles 43.2% Cottonwood 43.4% Pipestone 0.0% to 24.6% 24.6% to 30.8% 30.8% to 44.4% Minnesota Counties 2000 Percentage of the Population at Worship in Christian Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Minnesota. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use10 4,134 Traverse 4,299 Red Lake 4,522 Lake Of The Woods 5,168 Cook 5,190 Mahnomen 5,285 Kittson 5,820 Big Stone 6,289 Grant 6,429 Lincoln 7,138 Wilkin 7,442 Norman 8,067 Lac Qui Parle 8,423 Clearwater 9,165 Murray 9,721 Rock 9,895 Pipestone 10,053 Stevens 10,155 Marshall 11,058 Lake 11,080 Yellow Medicine 11,236 Pope 11,268 Jackson 11,876 Watonwan 11,956 Swift 12,167 Cottonwood 13,088 Chippewa 13,584 Pennington 13,713 Wadena 14,355 Koochiching 14,996 Kanabec 15,301 Aitkin 15,356 Sibley 16,181 Faribault 16,338 Roseau 16,815 Redwood 17,154 Renville 17,731 Dodge 18,376 Hubbard 19,526 Waseca 19,718 Houston 20,832 Nobles 21,122 Fillmore 21,610 Wabasha 21,802 Martin 22,330 Mille Lacs 22,644 Meeker 24,426 Todd 25,425 Lyon 25,426 Le Sueur 26,530 Pine 26,911 Brown 27,150 Cass 29,771 Nicollet 30,000 Becker 31,287 Isanti 31,369 Polk 31,671 Carlton 31,712 Morrison 32,584 Freeborn 32,821 Douglas 33,680 Steele 34,226 Benton 34,898 McLeod 38,603 Mower 39,650 Beltrami 41,101 Chisago 41,203 Kandiyohi 43,992 Itasca 44,127 Goodhue 49,985 Winona 51,229 Clay 55,099 Crow Wing 55,941 Blue Earth 56,665 Rice 57,159 Otter Tail 64,417 Sherburne 70,205 Carver 89,498 Scott 89,986 Wright 124,277 Olmsted 133,166 Stearns 200,528 Saint Louis 201,130 Washington 298,084 Anoka 355,904 Dakota 511,035 Ramsey 1,116,200 Hennepin 0 to 20,000 20,000 to 100,000 100,000 to 1,116,201 Minnesota Counties 2000 Population at Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest

11. Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Minnesota in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use13

14. Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity

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16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Minnesota in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the growth of Evangelical churches and the decline of Mainline and Catholic churches. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has remained quite stable, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson

18. Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Minnesota in 1990 and 2000.

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson

22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use22 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Minnesota. The Pie Chart shows how much Lutherans and Catholics predominate in Minnesota. The second and third charts show that all groups have declined with the exception of the Baptists, the 3 Sisters and the Pentecostals. (The 3 Sisters are 3 similar evangelical denominations originally from Sweden, the Baptist General Conference, the Evangelical Free Church and the Evangelical Covenant Church.)

23. Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

24. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church.

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27

28. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Minnesota in 2000.

30. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

31. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32 2.4% Clearwater 3.2% Cook 3.4% Kanabec 3.5% Cass 3.6% Chippewa 3.7% Isanti 4.1% Grant 4.3% Kandiyohi 4.7% Lac Qui Parle 4.7% Cottonwood 4.9% Chisago 4.9% Freeborn 5.1% Roseau 5.2% Beltrami 5.3% Pine 5.5% Sibley 5.7% Aitkin 5.7% Saint Louis 5.8% Otter Tail 5.9% Norman 5.9% Yellow Medicine 6.0% Fillmore 6.1% Goodhue 6.2% Meeker 6.3% Rock 6.5% Lake 6.5% Carlton 6.6% Nicollet 6.6% Clay 6.7% Pope 6.9% Pipestone 7.0% Martin 7.1% Swift 7.1% Sherburne 7.2% Mille Lacs 7.4% Kittson 7.4% Hennepin 7.6% Anoka 8.0% Wadena 8.0% Hubbard 8.1% Stevens 8.1% McLeod 8.4% Dakota 8.4% Jackson 8.4% Renville 8.5% Pennington 8.6% Watonwan 8.8% Lincoln 8.8% Wilkin 8.9% Dodge 9.0% Carver 9.0% Itasca 9.0% Rice 9.1% Washington 9.2% Wright 9.2% Crow Wing 9.5% Blue Earth 9.6% Olmsted 9.6% Polk 9.8% Douglas 9.8% Koochiching 9.8% Ramsey 10.0% Redwood 10.0% Big Stone 10.0% Becker 10.7% Lyon 11.8% Mower 12.1% Le Sueur 12.1% Traverse 12.1% Waseca 12.1% Todd 12.4% Steele 12.7% Faribault 12.8% Winona 12.8% Marshall 13.0% Murray 13.7% Nobles 13.7% Brown 14.3% Scott 15.1% Lake Of The Woods 15.5% Houston 15.5% Wabasha 15.6% Benton 19.2% Mahnomen 19.7% Morrison 20.5% Stearns 20.7% Red Lake 0.0% to 6.7% 6.7% to 9.6% 9.6% to 21.7% Minnesota Counties 2000 Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 9 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 78 counties declined.

34. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Minnesota between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 34 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 53 counties declined. For mainline churches, 5 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 82 counties declined. For Catholics, 22 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 65 counties declined.

36. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

37. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use38 Minnesota Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Minnesota in the past decade. There was a net loss of 26 churches. However, 667 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000.

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41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41 The State of the Church in Minnesota... Church attendance is highest in the southwest part of Minnesota and declines as to the northeast. While church attendance has grown for only the Evangelicals, the percentage of the population attending church has been declining for all three groups. This has resulted in a 10% loss in the state- wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Minnesota. Six hundred and ninety-three additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use42 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Minnesota Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm The Complete Minneapolis/St. Paul Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Minnesota and Twin Cities Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MN0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MN0.htm

43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45 For More Information... Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com.