1. Grain Outlook For 2004-05 Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University 3/12/2004

2. Grain Outlook, 2003-04 Near-Record Low world grain stocks Foreign weather--bad last 2 years China? World soy stocks: 9% below 2003, 11% above 2002, 17% above 2001—USDA Soy exports rationed, but not crush U.S. soy: record low stocks/use? U.S. corn/soy yield ratio & ‘04 plantings? Strong corn domestic & export demand Market tops probably not be in yet 3/10/04

3. Map From BBC News Asian Bird Flu 65 million birds destroyed?

5. 3/10/04

9. Cumulative Export Sales, 2003-04 vs. Yr. Ago 3/04/04 % Chg. Proj. % Chg. Corn +28 +26 Soybeans* -09 -15 Soybean meal -23 -29 Soybean oil -66 -62 All Wheat +43 +32 Grain Sorghum +14 +06 * China up 13% from Y/A.

10. China Corn, USDA Export Projections vs. actual Projections too low, except for 1998 October March 2002-03 38% 21% below actual 2001-02 55% 65% below actual 2000-01 45% 18% below actual 1999-00 50% 20% below actual 1998-99 17% 17% above actual 1997-98 58% 17% below actual 1996-97 87% 74% below actual

15. For discussion of Soybean yield problems, see: http://www.biotech-info.net/first_generation_GMC.pdf

20. May 04 corn

21. Locations of Under-Construction Ethanol Plants, March 2004 Source: Renewable FuelsAssoc. Ann. Mil. Bu. Corn Use West Burlington, IA, 16 Hopkinsville, KY 8 Lexington, NE 16.8 Mason City, IA 16 Hanlontown, IA 18 Palestine, IL 16 Malta Bend, MO 16 Iowa Falls, IA 16 Annual Mil. Bu. Corn Use Ashton, IA 18 Steam Boat Rock, IA 8 Hudson, SD 18 Friesland, WI 16 Total 182.8

27. Extreme right = 55 m.t. Brazil crop

32. Yield trend: +0.6bu/A./Yr.

33. Yield trend: +0.56 bu./A./Yr.

36. May 04 Soybeans

39. Cumulative Export Sales, 2003-04 vs. Yr. Ago 3/04/04 % Chg. Proj. % Chg. HRW wheat +82 +26 SRW wheat +41 -15 HRS wheat* +4 -29 White wheat +45 -62 Durum wheat +36 All Wheat +43 +32 Wheat prod. +55 +06 * China 176 mil. Bu. HRS, 26 m.b. SRW, 7 WW

40. Chicago May Wheat

42. Occurred 79% of time

45. Excluding 1995-96

47. Very Low world grain reserve Global soybean supplies more adequate -- if S. America crop holds at USDA 3/10/04 Soybeans: exports rationed, but not crush— strong basis & higher prices to cut margins Corn export sales recently slowing Ethanol expansion to continue strong, limiting future export growth potential Corn, wheat, soybean & product prices explosive if major weather problems Some downside risk in late spring, summer Key Points