1. The combined use of multiple data sources in the population census Fabio Crescenzi, Giuseppe Sindoni National Institute of Statistics Rome, Italy fabio.crescenzi@istat.it giuseppe.sindoni@istat.it

2. First round of census modernisation 2011 Census data Huge integration of administrative sources Sampling Short/Long forms Multichannel response and web management system

3. Beyond 2011. Census outputs available every year from a system of continuosly updated data Decennial field survey

4. census data every year Correct under and over coverage and supplement data Sample social surveys integrated in a unique system of surveys Maximize use of available administrative and statistical sources Second round of census modernization

5. Success factors System of registers Advances in methods for estimation of data using multiple sources Coordination of surveys Modernization of processes Drivers for change Costs Data demand Burden

6. C Objective Counting resident population and producing data on the demographic structure of population and households; D objective Producing socio-economic census data C and D objective

7. System of registers continuously updated to increase census data quality Base registers linked together at unit level. Continuous update by administrative sources and coordinated surveys. Quality methods to correct data. Persons Households Activities Places Geography Businesses Economic Units

8. Methodological challenges Population counts from multiple sources. (Generalizations of Capture Recapture or alternative methods) Data estimation from multiple sources Coordination of existing surveys Quality of data obtained by integration of multiple sources. Dealing Differences in definitions and time/space references

9. What are we doing now? ARCOLAIO: methods to use administrative data for statistical purposes ARCHIMEDE: micro and macro data integrated outputs for final users ARCHETIPO: new methods for continous census-type data production ANPR: National Resident Population Register ANNCSU: National Register of addresses Development projects

10. What are we doing now? Predictive capability of statistical models IT architecture to integrate data from different sources Syncronisation of data from web applications, apps for mobile, stand alone tablets etc. «Use of your own device» approach A big pilot survey 150 municipalities 160,000 households To test:

11. Pilot survey: preliminary results C-objective: capture/recapture in a sample of enumeration areas Completed by 99% of municipalities D-objective: sample survey for socio-economic data collection (85,000 households) 50% questionnaires returned A big pilot survey 150 municipalities 160,000 households

12. Legal and external challenges A law decree established the continuous census in 2012. Population registers should be revised and corrected using census results. Currently every 10 years. With a continous census? Statistical data can not be used for administrative purposes, including administrative data collected for statistical purposes… Cultural challenges. E.g.: many people surprised to see a census-type survey outside the census year. Very specialized users of data at maximum geographical detail (enumeration areas, 1Km 2 grids, …)

13. ARCHETIPO project to finalize a methodological proposal by June 2016 More pilots from the second half of 2016 No more traditional census in 2021 Plans for the future

14. In conclusion: two main issues for the innovation of censuses A strong cooperation among countries on new methodologies involving multiple sources Modernization of statistical processes inside NSIs