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Summer 2006 In Review David Hood September 21, 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "Summer 2006 In Review David Hood September 21, 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 Summer 2006 In Review David Hood September 21, 2006

2 What we expected… Summer 2006 Forecast –About 1 degree above normal in Southern Control Area. –Warm June with drought relieved by moisture from tropical storms as summer progresses. Tropical Cyclones 2006 –Forecast would be fourth most active storm season recorded. Focus on Atlantic Coast and Central America/Mexico. –18 tropical cyclones; 9 hurricanes; 5 intense hurricanes. Loads Forecast 2006 –Projected 2006 SCA Peak…45,210 MW… In July? –Adequate Reserves should be available at peak. Calls For Interruptible Customers not expected.

3 What we saw… Warm summer June, July, and August No hurricanes in service territory Drought continued New Peak loads in the Southern Control Area

4 2006 SCA Peak Data (includes Dalton Utilities, MEAG, GTC,SOCO) Interchange +184 Interchange -70 Interchange -913 Duke +348 SCEG +262 SC Interchange +3205 44,487 MW 8/7/06 @ 15:53 VACAR TVA ENTERGY FLORIDA Control Area Load (Inst.) 44,487 MW Net Interchange 2,533 MW Other (Dynamic Schedules, Freq. Bias, etc) 133 MW Total Net Output @ Peak 47,153 MW

5 - Historical Peak Data Temperature Demand 8/30 8/18 7/22 7/28 6/24 8/12 8/17 7/12 7/18 8/26 7/14 7/26 8/07

6 - Historical Peak Data Demand

7 SCA Load Profile: August 8, 2006 Forecast for 45,210 MW

8 Rain During Control Area Peaks

9 Rain with Temperature change 96 drops to 88 300 MW above forecast @ 11:00 AM 45,210 MW Forecast for 16:00 Hr.

10 Hrs. SCA Load > 40,000 MW 264 123 27

11 Average Daily Peaks

12 2006 SCA Reserves during Peak Short Term Service & exports Long Term Service

13 Southern Control Area: 2006 Peaks on 8/7/06 Instantaneous Peak @15:5344,487 MW Integrated Peak @16:00 44,314 MW SOCO Territorial Peak36,096 MW (w/o. OPC,MEAG) Southern Company Obligation Peak Load37,990 MW (operating companies plus other SCA obligations) Operating Company Integrated Peaks: All Time 8/07/06 Alabama Power 12,023 on 08/08/06 11,987 MW Georgia Power 17,721 on 09/02/06 17,485 MW Gulf Power 2,500 on 01/24/03 2,360 MW Mississippi Power 2,593 on 08/29/00 2,375 MW Savannah Electric 983 on 07/27/05 966 MW

14 QUESTIONS???


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