1. 1 The Economic Impact of New Infrastructure Michael Wegener Spiekermann & Wegener Convegno "Il corridoio del Brennero nel quadro delle infrastrutture dell'Italia settentrionale" Trento, 16 September 2005

2. 2 Accessibility

3. 3 Rail travel times from Trento in 1910 © K. Spiekermann

4. 4 Rail travel times from Trento in 1970 © K. Spiekermann

5. 5 Rail travel times from Trento in 1997 © K. Spiekermann

6. 6 Rail travel times from Trento in 2020 © K. Spiekermann

7. 7 Accessibility and Regional Development

8. 8 Accessibility and development Norway Denmark Finland Sweden Ireland East Germany Eastern Europe Central Europe Mezzogiorno Northern Italy Milan Turin Rom e

9. 9 Transport Infrastructure

10. 10 Road network in the AlpenCorS area

11. 11 Rail network in the AlpenCorS area

12. 12 Airports in the AlenCorS area

13. 13 TEN/TINA priority projects in the AlpenCorS area

14. 14 Road projects: Valdastico/Pedemontana and Valsugana

15. 15 Rail projects: Southern bypass and Valsugana

16. 16 The SASI Model

17. 17 SASI Model GDP Accessibility Production function Employment Migration function Population Income Labour force Transport policy Unemploy- ment

18. 18 Scenarios

19. 19 Scenarios NoScenario description 000Reference scenario Brenner tunnel scenario AS1Brenner tunnel Local scenarios AS2AS1 + Southern rail bypass AS3AS1 + Valdastico/Pedemontana motorways AS4AS1 + Valsugana road and rail corridor AS5AS1 + AS2 + AS3 + AS4 European scenario AS6All road TEN/TINA projects in Europe

20. 20 Scenario 000 Reference Scenario

21. 21 Reference Scenario

22. 22 Reference Scenario Trento Bolzano Venezia Zürich Torino Milano Lyon Wien München Strasbourg Ljubljana

23. 23 Reference Scenario Trento Bolzano Venezia Zürich Torino Milano Lyon Wien München Strasbourg Ljubljana

24. 24 Reference Scenario Accessibility road/rail (travel, million) Scenario 000 2021

25. 25 Scenario AS1 Effects of the Brenner Tunnel: Accessibility

26. 26 Effects of the Brenner tunnel

27. 27 Trento Bolzano Venezia Zürich Torino Milano Lyon Wien München Strasbourg Ljubljana Effects of the Brenner tunnel

28. 28 Scenario AS1 Effects of the Brenner Tunnel: GDP per Capita

29. 29 Effects of the Brenner tunnel

30. 30 Trento Bolzano Venezia Zürich Torino Milano Lyon Wien München Strasbourg Ljubljana Effects of the Brenner tunnel

31. 31 Scenario AS6 All TEN/TINA Projects: GDP per Capita

32. 32 All TEN/TINA projects

33. 33 All TEN/TINA projects Trento Bolzano Venezia Zürich Torino Milano Lyon Wien München Strasbourg Ljubljana

34. 34 All local projects Accessibility road/rail (travel, million) Scenario AS5 v. 000 2021

35. 35 All TEN/TINA projects Accessibility road/rail/air (travel, million) Scenario AS6 v. 000 2021

36. 36 Scenario Comparison

37. 37 Brenner tunnel (AS1): accessibility road/rail Piemonte Valle d'Aosta Liguria Lombardia Veneto Friuli Venezia Giulia Bolzano Trento AlpenCorS Effect (%)

38. 38 Brenner tunnel (AS1): GDP per capita (Euro) Effect (%) Piemonte Valle d'Aosta Liguria Lombardia Veneto Friuli Venezia Giulia Bolzano Trento AlpenCorS

39. 39 Comparison of Scenarios: Trento Brenner tunnel Southern rail bypass Valdastico/Pedemontana Valsugana rail/road All local projects All TEN/TINA projects Effect (%)

40. 40 Comparison of Scenarios: Trento Brenner tunnel Southern rail bypass Valdastico/Pedemontana Valsugana rail/road All local projects All TEN/TINA projects Effect (%)

41. 41 What does this mean for Trento? The Trento region can expect to gain from the Brenner tunnel 175 million Euro or 300 Euro per inhabitant per year (in Euro of 2005) in 2021. If also the other local infrastructure projects are implemented, it can expect 230 million Euro or 400 Euro per inhabitant per year in 2021. These figures do not include the benefits of improvements of the logistics infrastructure. However, these figures relate to 2021. In the years until 2021 the benefits are smaller as they gradually build up following the implementation of the infrastructure.

42. 42 Conclusions

43. 43 Conclusions (1): accessibility Good access to suppliers and markets is one of the preconditions for the production of goods and services. Transport infrastructure is therefore one of the primary instruments of governments to promote regional competitiveness. However, transport infrastructure can also increase the disparities between regions, generates more traffic and leads to higher energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

44. 44 Conclusions (2): macro trends The regional effects of transport projects and transport policies are small compared with those of socio-economic and technical macro trends, such as -globalisation, -growing competition between regions, -ageing of the population, -increasing labour force participation, -growing labour productivity. Large increases in accessibility translate into only small changes in economic activity.

45. 45 Conclusions (3): the Brenner tunnel The implementation of the Brenner tunnel will be a key factor for linking northern and southern Europe. The accessibility effects of the tunnel will reach from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. The effects for freight will be even more far reaching than those for travel. The economic effects of the Brenner tunnel will be smaller but also far-reaching. The regions south of the tunnel exit, Bozen/ Bolzano and Trento, will benefit most.

46. 46 Conclusions (4): local projects The local transport infrastructure projects south of the Brenner tunnel will spread the tunnel effects to adjacent regions. The Valdastico and Pedemontana motor- way extensions will be most successful in promoting other regions. If all three local projects, the southern rail bypass, the Valdastico and Pedemontana motorways and the Valsugana road and rail corridor, are combined, the effect of spread- ing the tunnel effects to other Italian regions are most pronounced.

47. 47 Conclusions (5): European projects If besides the local projects also European transport infrastructure projects of the TEN and TINA programmes outside the Alpine Space are taken into account, the effects on accessibility and regional economic development are much stronger. Although the TEN and TINA programmes have been recently re-oriented towards improving the transport systems of the new EU member states, the regions south of the Alps remain on the winner side.

48. 48 More information: Modelling Regional Development in AlpenCorS. Final Report. AlpenCorS Deliverable 5. Dortmund, 2005.

49. 49