1. The Environment Institute Where ideas grow Water A climate change perspective Mike Young Executive Director, The Environment Institute

2. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Water scarcity gap After 2030 Water Resources Group

3. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Thinking about climate change What’s different? – Change is normal in business – Sudden shifts are normal Prudent to plan on the assumption that it will occur Lucky that we have the knowlegde

4. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Risk, uncertainty and science Risk – distribution known Uncertainty – range known Surprise – Can explain after the event Ignorance – The unknown unknowns We all need to be aware that averages and probabilities may lead us to the wrong conclusions

5. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Two speed thinking Slow variables Fast variables

6. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide - 1% - 3%

7. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide With half as much water, how much can you use? Users Environment River Flow Environment River Flow Users River Flow Environment Users

8. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Language Environmental water How many types? – Flora and Fauna water – Conveyance

9. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Policy Averse to change - procrastination Avoid autonomous adjustment frameworks Change is a process without end – Impede – Facilitate – Expedite Be tolerant and learning from judgements made in a risky environment

10. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Water entitlement and allocation regimes Principles – Tinbergen One instrument per objective – Mundell’s Assignment principle Assign for maximum policy leverage Don’t change the purpose of each lever – Coase Keep transaction costs as low as you can

11. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Water Rights Reform & unbundling Water Tradable Right Price Land Single Title to Land with a Water Licence Entitlement Shares in Perpetuity Bank-like Allocations Use licences with limits & obligations Delivery Capacity Shares Delivery Capacity Allocations Salinity Shares Salinity Allocations National Competition Policy 1993/94 Plus Cap National Water Initiative 2004

12. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Scarcity and Trading Source: Murray Darling Basin Commission, 2007 Water Reform Trading opened up

13. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Return to investment in entitlement systems & trading After Bjornlund & Rossini 2007

14. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Robust Institutional Design Robust (adj.) Said of a system that has demonstrated an ability to recover gracefully from the whole range of exceptional inputs and situations in a given environment. One step below bulletproof. Carries the additional connotation of elegance in addition to just careful attention to detail. Compare smart, oppose brittle. Robust systems Endure without the need to change their foundations. Inspire confidence Produce efficient and politically acceptable outcomes in an ever changing world. Source Dictionary of Jargon

15. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide Volume of Water in the System In a regulated system: What is environmental Water? =

16. The Environment Institute Where ideas grow www.adelaide.edu.au/environment www.myoung.net.au

17. The Environment Institute Life Impact The University of Adelaide A sharing regime under 23 (2) (c) Consump tive uses Held Env. Water Sustainable Diversion Limit Rules Based Water (1-x)% Entitlement Portfolio x% Entitlement Portfolio Fully specified share regime