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Student Managed Fund MBA Performance Report March 8, 2007
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MBA Managers Mike Amodeo Devika Chirayilparambu Matt Cordeiro Vasilios Diakogeorgiou Samara Hollander Daniela Ionescu Adam Macko Puru Patnekar John Salemi Amanda Wallace
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Agenda Investment Philosophy Investment Process Portfolio Performance Firm Activity Forward Expectations Q & A
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Investment Philosophy Follow a fundamental bottom-up approach Focus on companies with a market cap of at least $1Billion Target stocks that trade at a minimum 15% perceived discount to their intrinsic value Benchmark is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by 5% annually Invest across a diversified group of sectors to emulate the S&P 500 Index
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Investment Process Stock Selection FundamentalAnalysis Sell Discipline
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Stock Selection Seek high quality US Equities that exhibit strong growth potential within their industry Screeners: Yahoo! Finance MSN Money Central Reuters MagicFormulaInvesting.com Rank stocks based on: Earnings/Sales growth Net/Operating margins ROE, ROA P/E, PEG
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Fundamental Analysis Narrow down the range by emphasizing on the following value drivers Operating Margins Revenue and Earnings ramp-up Capital Expenditure R&D Intensity Free Cash Flow Growth Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Relative P/E analysis EVA analysis
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Sell Discipline Stop loss 15% stop loss on all positions Protect down-side risk Prevent market volatility from stopping out positions Re-evaluation of positions More than 15% gain More than 10% loss Change in business model or expectations
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Portfolio Performance Performance Highlights Total equity positions 1,127,166.34 $ Total cash position808.93 $ Value (2/16/2007) 1,127,975.27 $ Allocation and ManagementPerformance HighlightsS&P 500SMF Beginning value (9/01/2006)1,303.82 $ 990,089.88 $ Ending Value (2/16/2007)1,455.53 $ 1,127,975.27 $ Returns11.636%13.927%
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Individual Holding Performance TickerCompanyReturns ANFAbercrombie and Fitch 23.35% LHLaboratory Corp. 18.14% HRSHarris Corp. 16.87% SHWSherwin Williams 16.45% JECJacobs Engineering 14.52% SCSSSelect Comfort 12.20% ADTNAdtran Inc. 12.09% GDGeneral Dynamics 10.79% FPLFlorida Power and Light 9.66% MOAltria 9.59% HRLHormel Foods 6.22% AEOSAmerican Eagle Outfitters 4.39% TXNTexas Instruments 3.67% AXPAmerican Express 2.48% OXYOccidental Petroleum 1.82% NVSNovartis 1.79% BACBank of America 1.58% VRGYVerigy Ltd. 0.27% BTUPeabody Energy Corp. -0.70% PEPPepsi Co. -0.87% NFXNewfield Exploration -1.35% ARJArch Chemicals -2.37% BERBerkeley -3.94% ORCLOracle -7.94%
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0.000% 2.000% 4.000% 6.000% 8.000% 10.000% 12.000% 14.000% 9/29/2006 10/13/200610/27/2006 11/10/2006 11/24/2006 12/8/2006 12/22/2006 1/5/2007 1/19/2007 2/2/2007 2/16/2007 SMF S&P 500 Comparison with S&P 500
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Sector Allocation SMF Sector Allocation (2/16/2007) Health Care 9% Financials 12% Energy 12% Materials 8% Industrials 8% Consumer Discretionary 13% Consumer Staples 13% Utilities 4% Telecom 5% IT 16%
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Portfolio Efficiency Statistics Beta : 0.872 Alpha : 0.014 M 2 : 1.85% Modified Dietz Return (Bi-weekly) SMF: 0.67% S&P 500: 0.5% Rp0.53%Rp0.44% Rf0.09%Rf0.09% σpσp 1.65% σpσp 0.96% Sharpe0.267Sharpe0.365 SMF Sharpe RatioS&P 500 Sharpe Ratio S(X) = Rp - Rf / σ p
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Performance Attribution Analysis Portfolio Excess Return2.291% Contribution from stock selection1.423% Contribution from sector allocation0.867% Contribution from cash allocation-0.008% Contribution from SPYDR0.010%
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Firm Activity Verigy (VRGY) Guidance Adjusted Upwards Jacobs Engineering (JEC) Guidance Adjusted Upwards Altria (MO) Kraft spin-off Novartis (NVS) FDA approval for Exforge FDA delay for Galvus Oracle (ORCL) Analyst Downgrade and License Sales Hyperion Acquisition POSITIVE CAUTION
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Forward Expectations Interest rates remain stable Earnings growth slows towards historical average Stocks currently are fairly valued Expect 2007 returns to mirror long-run average (8%- 12%)
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Forward Expectations Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Economic Growth Corporate Earnings Growth Inflation Market Valuation NEUTRAL NEUTRAL/POSITIVE NEUTRAL
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Learning Experience Strength in Numbers 10 Managers – 10 Different Styles to Learn From Expertise Across Different Industries Stand Up to the Scrutiny of Peers Look for Compelling Business Stories What is the Company’s Competitive Advantage? Why Will Your Stock Outperform the Market? Add Value Through Event-Driven Returns Look for Opportunities that Will Unlock Value
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Acknowledgements The University of Connecticut Foundation, Inc. Investment Advisory Board Dr. Chinmoy Ghosh
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Questions
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