1. Preliminary Findings Climate Resilience in Tourism-Dependent Communities on Minnesota’s North Shore Introduction Key Informant Interviews and Focus Groups Key Informant Interviews and Focus Groups The North Shore of Lake Superior is a popular regional tourist destination for diverse nature-based recreation activities. Unique geology, access to Lake Superior, inland lakes and streams, abundant public forests, parks, trails, wilderness areas, and diverse wildlife are just some of the area’s iconic and highly revered natural features that contribute to an estimated $1 billion in travel-related expenditures (Davidson-Peterson Associates, 2008). Through an adapted grounded theory approach (Charmaz, 2006), our project seeks to understand community climate readiness on the North Shore and specifically, the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of recreation and tourism resources and local communities. Climate change is expected to impact the North Shore in multiple interacting ways that may have an impact on recreation and tourism: More frequent and severe storm events Higher high and low temperatures Decreased snow depth and lake ice thickness Changing forest types, including increased pests and invasive species Increased threats of wildfire Lower lake levels and warmer lake temperatures The North Shore of Lake Superior is a popular regional tourist destination for diverse nature-based recreation activities. Unique geology, access to Lake Superior, inland lakes and streams, abundant public forests, parks, trails, wilderness areas, and diverse wildlife are just some of the area’s iconic and highly revered natural features that contribute to an estimated $1 billion in travel-related expenditures (Davidson-Peterson Associates, 2008). Through an adapted grounded theory approach (Charmaz, 2006), our project seeks to understand community climate readiness on the North Shore and specifically, the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of recreation and tourism resources and local communities. Climate change is expected to impact the North Shore in multiple interacting ways that may have an impact on recreation and tourism: More frequent and severe storm events Higher high and low temperatures Decreased snow depth and lake ice thickness Changing forest types, including increased pests and invasive species Increased threats of wildfire Lower lake levels and warmer lake temperatures Interviews were conducted with 20 local recreation and tourism resource stakeholders in 2014 using a semi-structured interview guide and a network sampling approach. Two focus groups were conducted with business owners and recreation managers and related professionals. Discussion Preliminary analysis revealed climate impacts to natural and cultural resource quality is a chief concern among local recreation and tourism stakeholders. Karen Katz Graduate Research Assistant University of Minnesota Bree Duever Undergraduate Research Assistant University of Minnesota Mae A. Davenport Associate Professor University of Minnesota Erin Seekamp Associate Professor North Carolina State University Jordan W. Smith Assistant Professor North Carolina State University Works Cited Charmaz, K. (2006). Constructing Grounded Theory: a Practice Guide through Qualitative Analysis. London: Sage. Davidson-Peterson Associates. (2008). The Economic Impact of Expenditures by Travelers on Minnesota’s Northeast Region and the Profile of Travelers June 2007-May 2008. Kennebunk, ME: Explore Minnesota Tourism. From http://www.tourism.umn.edu Charmaz, K. (2006). Constructing Grounded Theory: a Practice Guide through Qualitative Analysis. London: Sage. Davidson-Peterson Associates. (2008). The Economic Impact of Expenditures by Travelers on Minnesota’s Northeast Region and the Profile of Travelers June 2007-May 2008. Kennebunk, ME: Explore Minnesota Tourism. From http://www.tourism.umn.edu Acknowledgements Funding: Minnesota Sea Grant, North Carolina State University, University of Minnesota, USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station; Collaborator: Carleton College; Partner: MN Department of Natural Resources; Research Assistants: J. Yanish, A. Weeldreyer, S. Gutterman, & A. Felix Contact Information Karen Katz: katzx096@umn.edu Bree Duever: dueve020@umn.edu Mae Davenport: mdaven@umn.edu Karen Katz: katzx096@umn.edu Bree Duever: dueve020@umn.edu Mae Davenport: mdaven@umn.edu “So the North Shore, it’s just natural beauty. I mean, it is absolutely unique. There is nothing like it anywhere else in Minnesota or pretty much anywhere in the United States.” Our study area is within the Lake Superior North and Lake Superior South hydrologic units, shown here in yellow as a combined watershed. Recreation and Tourism Economy Natural Resources Natural Resource Dependent Communities Nature-based recreation and tourism are the main drivers of the local economy. High quality natural resources are “critical” to north shore residents quality of life. Tourism was described as the North Shore’s “whole economy.” “The natural resources environment is pretty much driving our economic base here. That’s the draw, that’s what’s getting people to come here. They want to be outside, they want to be out in nature, and they want to go for that hike, or that ski, or that snowmobile. So the natural resources and the environment are very important for our tourists, and the tourists are bringing the dollars into the community. That’s what’s keeping us afloat here.” Climate Concerns: Altered natural resources affecting recreation and tourism Community Vulnerabilities Recreation Infrastructure “I guess you could say if we are spending all of our money fighting fires and taking care of other things, then we can’t be spending it on maintaining trails, campgrounds, and pavements on the bike trail and wayside rests…climate change could potentially eat up funds that would otherwise be designated for recreational resources.” Recreation Infrastructure “I guess you could say if we are spending all of our money fighting fires and taking care of other things, then we can’t be spending it on maintaining trails, campgrounds, and pavements on the bike trail and wayside rests…climate change could potentially eat up funds that would otherwise be designated for recreational resources.” Weather Conditions “I think we had a winter a couple years ago where there was pretty much no snow until late in the season, and that affected not just those that would serve skiers or snowmobilers, but all the other businesses around it. Whether its restaurants, hotels, gas suppliers, gift shops…that winter did them in. And they basically said that anyone in the tourist business up and down the shore were fairly devastated…Whether it’s too cold…too much rain…They’re just going to have to diversify. They have to come up with other ways to make a living.” Weather Conditions “I think we had a winter a couple years ago where there was pretty much no snow until late in the season, and that affected not just those that would serve skiers or snowmobilers, but all the other businesses around it. Whether its restaurants, hotels, gas suppliers, gift shops…that winter did them in. And they basically said that anyone in the tourist business up and down the shore were fairly devastated…Whether it’s too cold…too much rain…They’re just going to have to diversify. They have to come up with other ways to make a living.” Forest Change “We know the populations of moose are seriously declining…you go into places and their names, the kinds of things they sell, or their little symbols might be about moose…that’s the ‘Up North’ symbol. And that may have to change. At some point we may not have moose up here anymore…Birch tree is another kind of iconic symbol of the North Shore…so I think that may change. And the way that businesses associate themselves with this North Shore…those things may evolve.” Forest Change “We know the populations of moose are seriously declining…you go into places and their names, the kinds of things they sell, or their little symbols might be about moose…that’s the ‘Up North’ symbol. And that may have to change. At some point we may not have moose up here anymore…Birch tree is another kind of iconic symbol of the North Shore…so I think that may change. And the way that businesses associate themselves with this North Shore…those things may evolve.” Knowledge “Knowledge base…you could have very scientific folks from the Forest Service, down to the guy who’s been living near that land his whole life kind of thing. A lot of it’s knowledge; a lot of it’s expertise, and usually we’ll work together pretty well to try and solve a problem. It’s knowledge and expertise.” Knowledge “Knowledge base…you could have very scientific folks from the Forest Service, down to the guy who’s been living near that land his whole life kind of thing. A lot of it’s knowledge; a lot of it’s expertise, and usually we’ll work together pretty well to try and solve a problem. It’s knowledge and expertise.” Reactive Responses “We have a community that seems to be, as a lot of communities are, more reactive than proactive. When it starts to be an issue, you’ll see people get active. And, as in most communities, it’s always the same people that are really vocal…So if it’s climate change, it’s going to be who impacts it? Who is going to step up? It tends to be the way this community works.” “There’s a lot of inefficiencies and a lot of reproduced efforts, because a lot of these organizations are pretty much one subject…or one topic things…The organizations kind of come and go…They’ll sit latent for a long time, and then if something happens, then they jump up and they get really loud. And, then once that fear has passed or that threat has passed, then they just lie back down again and disappear.” Reactive Responses “We have a community that seems to be, as a lot of communities are, more reactive than proactive. When it starts to be an issue, you’ll see people get active. And, as in most communities, it’s always the same people that are really vocal…So if it’s climate change, it’s going to be who impacts it? Who is going to step up? It tends to be the way this community works.” “There’s a lot of inefficiencies and a lot of reproduced efforts, because a lot of these organizations are pretty much one subject…or one topic things…The organizations kind of come and go…They’ll sit latent for a long time, and then if something happens, then they jump up and they get really loud. And, then once that fear has passed or that threat has passed, then they just lie back down again and disappear.” Community Readiness Adaptation Planning “If we don’t take care of things and start worrying about how this climate is going to change these forests…If these trees go, then what’s going to happen to your woods that you love so dearly? And it’s that understanding, what’s going to happen to tourism? How are your kids going to make it here?” Adaptation Planning “If we don’t take care of things and start worrying about how this climate is going to change these forests…If these trees go, then what’s going to happen to your woods that you love so dearly? And it’s that understanding, what’s going to happen to tourism? How are your kids going to make it here?” Multiple vulnerabilities and areas of readiness within the communities were identified. Climate readiness may be best advanced through: Collaborative partnerships among multiple existing high capacity organizations and businesses (will require shared visioning and cooperation in adaptation planning) Continued support for ongoing efforts to raise climate awareness and community sustainability Community engagement (and likely conflict management) that integrates and validates multiple interests in climate adaptation Diversification of recreation and tourism offerings and a nimble and consistent communication plan for tourists. Engaged Community “The resource of advocacy, and inside experience [is a strength]…We get a lot of volunteers that are experts, and it’s nice to have that. We definitely get a wide spectrum of opinions. I think we get the resource of representation. It’s the best thing; that’s the grassroots kind of effort of the town energizing itself and making that happen. I think that’s happened here a lot. It’s part of what makes this town great. It’s the level that people serve it, and protect it. If that’s a resource, it’s just having good people. It’s easy to get the word out around here between the local radio, the local paper, and just the coffee shop, and the laundromat … It’s easy to have forums and public discussions.” Engaged Community “The resource of advocacy, and inside experience [is a strength]…We get a lot of volunteers that are experts, and it’s nice to have that. We definitely get a wide spectrum of opinions. I think we get the resource of representation. It’s the best thing; that’s the grassroots kind of effort of the town energizing itself and making that happen. I think that’s happened here a lot. It’s part of what makes this town great. It’s the level that people serve it, and protect it. If that’s a resource, it’s just having good people. It’s easy to get the word out around here between the local radio, the local paper, and just the coffee shop, and the laundromat … It’s easy to have forums and public discussions.” Risk Perceptions “We have had some serious wildfires up in that the Gunflint Trail…Now they’re not on the shore, but when you watch the news on TV, they have put this big whole circle on all of Northeastern Minnesota on fire. When it might be a twenty thousand-acre fire. So a lot of it is perception as well…and if people have a perception that things are dying off, or it’s getting bad, that’s probably more critical than reality.” Risk Perceptions “We have had some serious wildfires up in that the Gunflint Trail…Now they’re not on the shore, but when you watch the news on TV, they have put this big whole circle on all of Northeastern Minnesota on fire. When it might be a twenty thousand-acre fire. So a lot of it is perception as well…and if people have a perception that things are dying off, or it’s getting bad, that’s probably more critical than reality.” Diverging Interests “It’s a bipolar community, in a sense...There are certain people that are living in large, very expensive houses along the North Shore. Then there are other people who are running a lot of the businesses and mom- and-pop kind of places along the North Shore. And the two of them aren’t necessarily pulling in the same direction. There is a lot of difficultly getting some things moved along, politically, very easily, because of that. You can move things along with one segment, or you can get the other segment to get together and do something, but cross-pollination between the two different groups [is difficult]…” Diverging Interests “It’s a bipolar community, in a sense...There are certain people that are living in large, very expensive houses along the North Shore. Then there are other people who are running a lot of the businesses and mom- and-pop kind of places along the North Shore. And the two of them aren’t necessarily pulling in the same direction. There is a lot of difficultly getting some things moved along, politically, very easily, because of that. You can move things along with one segment, or you can get the other segment to get together and do something, but cross-pollination between the two different groups [is difficult]…” This study asks, “What is the capacity of North Shore communities to adapt to climate-related impacts to recreation and tourism resources?” Interview Participant Role (20 total) Tourism Professional (2) Recreation/ Tourism Professional Private Recreation Business (3) Hospitality Business (2) Non-profit Professional (2) Community Leader County Government (2) Planning Agency (1) Local Official (1) Natural Resource Professional Federal Agency (2) Municipal Agency (1) State Agency (2) Conservation District (1) Non-profit Agency (1) North Shore Region (5) Cook County (5) Grand Marais (6) Lutsen (1) Finland (3) Study Location Represented Gooseberry Falls, MN 2012, Photo credit: MN DNRGooseberry Falls, MN 2015, Photo credit: A. Weeldreyer Grand Marais 2014, Photo credit: M. Davenport Split Rock Lighthouse 2014, Photo credit: J.W. Smith