1. World Shipbuilding Situation  U ncertain world economics  O vercapacity, expansion  4 major building areas  S hipyard capacity/productivity

2. World seaborne trade - bn tonne-miles Source: Fearnresearch

3. Japan's devastated banks On the agenda YUKOS’ OIL PRODUCTION UP 18.0% IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2002 Mikhail Khodorkovsky Chairman and CEO YUKOS Oil Company

4. Source: Fearnleys, IEA, INTERTANKO Will the strong growth continue?

5. World exports geographical distribution

7. Shipbuilding situation

8. World Shipbuilders’ Situation  J apan Large domestic market High productivity  S outh Korea Large, modern yards Currency advantage  C hina Labour cost advantage Building to special requirement Fragmented  E urope Tradition, expertise Subsidies, low productivity Fragmented

9. Vessels on order by builders' and major shipowners’ regions

10. World fleet and orderbook - million dwt February 2002 8%

11. World commercial fleet growth Growth since end of 1996, ie the past 5 years

12. Tanker deliveries - dwt

13. Tanker newbuilding prices

14. Aframax newbuilding price USD/Won

15. VLCC price in USD/Yen

16. Total completions AWES/Korea/Japan - CGT

17. Productivity CGT/person AWES Korea/Japan

18. Looking ahead  C ontinued demand growth??  Y ard overcapacity continues?  C losures in Europe?  C hina, more expansion?  P rices?

19. Market

20. INTERTANKOs aim is

22. Tanker deliveries - number

23. Contracting 1992-2007

24. Medium term oil trade development  M ore short haul oil, FSU, W Africa, Mexico (-N Sea)  US oil production decline halted – long term up?  I ncrease in trade depend on Asia  O verall OECD oil demand flat  S hort-term, cheap capacity lies in the Middle East  IEA : The pace of economic activity is the single most important driver of energy demand, but Politicians may set a different scenario