1. TNS Media Intelligence/ Campaign Media Analysis Group September 4, 2008 The “Business” of Politics The 2008 Election Forecast Update

2. 2 Part of a world leading market information group TNS Located in Arlington, VA Providing insights on political media research since 1997 Track and analyze political public affairs and issue- advocacy advertising Experienced political researchers assemble the most reliable comprehensive research and reporting Help clients better manage their media strategy, media buys, public relations and communications efforts National trade associations, foundations, Fortune 100 companies, national media organizations, the political and financial press academia and hundreds of national, statewide and local political campaigns rely on CMAG data TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG The Business of Politics

3. 3 The 2008 Election Forecast Update The “Business” of Politics Review the CMAG Forecast The Building Blocks of Our 2008 Forecast Not a banner year The numbers State & Local Overview The Race For the White House The battleground The landscape Looking Ahead 2009 and 2010

4. 4 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast: The Political Marketplace

5. 5 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Overview The Race to Election Day CMAG Forecast: $3 Billion on Campaign Ads 27 percent of total and climbing $430m more than 2004 Over $25 million per week Typically 70 percent of total is spent over final 60 days Spending Drivers Historic presidential race Competitive down ballot races Ballot measures Well-funded interest groups

6. 6 The 2008 CMAG Forecast Building Blocks Macro-Factors (wrong) Both presidential candidates will forego public financing Primaries will be over after February 5, 2008 Early start to general election ads Network TV will not be utilized beyond the primary Similar battleground from 2000 and 2004 elections Groups will be early and significant ad spenders US House will become GOP “firewall”

7. 7 The 2008 CMAG Forecast Building Blocks Macro-Factors (right) Record primary ad spending Early start to primary ads Expansion of candidates using TV ads Some network TV and more cable buys Growth in “issue awareness” spending The Internet will not replaced TV in 2008

8. 8 Internet Election Take Six This Is “The Internet Election” (maybe) 1998: Read my plan 2000: Look what I can do! 2002: Cool web site, bad candidate 2004: Meet up with Howard Dean 2006: Macaca mania 2008: Tools in the box Internet: Still More Questions Than Answers Is it for selling or buying? Can you reach undecided voters? - If yes, how? What’s the role for web ads in 2010 and beyond?

9. 9 Top-tier presidential campaigns Online ads mostly used for fundraising and grassroots $7-10 million total spent in presidential race $3-5 million on non-presidential ads Top sites: local and national news, ideology, demographic, sports and election Mistakes and perception Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast The Role of the Internet in the 2008 Election

10. 10 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008 US Senate: Candidate$220-250 million $40 million Party$60-100 million $5 million IE$10-20 million $9.5 million US House: Candidate$200-230 million$41 million Party$100-160 million$4 million IE$20-50 million$5.4 million

11. 11 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers: The US Senate US Senate - Sea of red - The Magic 60? - New GOP Firewall Most Competitive States - Alaska - Colorado - Kentucky - Maine - Minnesota - Mississippi - New Hampshire - New Mexico - North Carolina - Oregon - Virginia

12. 12 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers: US House US House Enormous battleground Democratic Party cash advantage - Over $50 million placed already Cash-strapped GOP Most Competitive States Arizona Connecticut Indiana Ohio New York New Mexico New Hampshire Florida Pennsylvania Virginia

13. 13 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008 State and Local Governors$90-110 million$31 million Ballots$190-230 million$121 million Judges/AG$50-60 million$12 million Other$175-250 million$32 million Issue:$330-400 million$250 million

14. 14 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers Governors - 11 states holding governor elections Ballot Measures - 28 states - Affirmative action, abortion, healthcare, gaming, gay rights, taxes immigration, energy and unions - Over $114 million in California Issue Ad Spending - Energy, environment, healthcare and telecom

15. 15 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers 2008 Race for the White House Primary Overview: Over $220 million on TV ads in primary Combined spending: Democrats $150 million vs. GOP $58 million Majority of early IE spending on issues and not candidates Ad spending focused on early states - $87 million spent on TV ads in IA, NH and SC - Contest-by-contest focus meant primary ad spending in 46 states

16. 16 Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008 Presidential Race: Candidate $400-460 million$269 million* Party$150-175 million $4.1 million Groups$100-140 million $71 million * January-August 24 th 2008

17. 17 2008 Forecast Update The Battleground

18. 18 2004 Election Map Begin Where We Ended Bush: 286 Kerry: 252

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20. 20 Pre-Labor Day Target States Alaska

21. 21 The Battleground Many Scenarios and Possibilities Post Convention Battlefield Minimal bounce for Obama campaign What will the McCain Convention/Palin bounce be? Battleground Today 7 True Battleground states - NV, CO, NM, NH, ND, OH, & VA 5 Lean Republican - GA, FL, IN, MO, & MT 4 Lean Democrat - PA, IA, WI, & MI Key Regions/States this Fall Mountain West (CO, NM, NV and MT) Great Lakes (MI, WI OH, MN and Western PA)

22. 22 2008 Forecast Update The Race for the White House

23. 23 The Stretch Run The Landscape: “Most Advantages Since Watergate” Polls Favors Democrats Nationally - Unpopular president - Right track/wrong track - Political scandals and mismanagement - Economic anxiety - War fatigued - Lopsided party ID/registration - Down ballot races leaning overwhelmingly toward Democrats - Democrats have a monetary advantage

24. 24 The Candidates Barack Obama Spending & Fundraising Record-setting Expanding use of media/tools Off public financing Strategy Use up as much “oxygen” as possible with ads and media Own, don’t rent, the message National themes and local attacks Keys to success Expand the battleground Prevent being “Swift-boated”

25. 25 The Candidates John McCain Spending & Fundraising Finished primary strong Taking public financing Strategy Go negative Disciplined Define the race Keys to success Keep battleground compact RNC money Rely on groups for some messages

26. 26 The Supporter Will they play a role? The Party’s Republican Party is well- funded - Support role for McCain Democratic Party is not as well funded - Raising money now - Tapping Obama donors 527 Groups Late money is being raised Disruptive Issue-Driven Agenda Groups Millions spent on issues focused on the general election

27. 27 The Presidential Race It All Comes Down to Turnout Crucial Voting Blocs Clinton supporters Ron Paul supporters Evangelicals Hispanics Moderate/Independents Young voters Tone Of the race Negative Personal

28. 28 Political Factors Pres. & Vice Pres. debates will be crucial Battleground post-conventions? Can Obama turn any red states purple? Can McCain hold the base? Fundraising Republican vs. Democratic Can Obama raise $1 billion from his 2 million? Can McCain/RNC/others keep up? International or Domestic Events Weather, Economy, War on Terror, Russia, Israel and Iran October Surprises What will they be? Will the undecided break come early or late? Events: Impacting Election Spending

29. 29 2008 Forecast Update Looking Ahead

30. 30 Looking Ahead: 2009 New Beginning Reasons to be Optimistic about spending Start of a new political business cycle One Political Party will need re-building and re-branding New Federal Government Leadership & makeup of US House and Senate Special elections: - Arizona and/or Illinois/Delaware - Cabinet Appointments 2008 Issues Drive 2009 Issue Ad Spending: Energy $232 million Healthcare $150 million Economy $72 million Iraq$55 million Gas Prices$40 million Trade$9 million

31. 31 Looking Ahead 2010 Onward and Upwards Early campaigning 2010 redistricting Target States Arkansas California Ohio Georgia Pennsylvania Florida New Record Likely

32. 32 Thank You

33. 33 Past, Present, Future