1. DET Module 1 Ensemble Configuration Linda Wharton 1, Paula McCaslin 1, Tara Jensen 2 1 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO 2 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 3/8/2016

2. Motivation National Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction Workshop (September 2009) Science issues: which ensemble is better? o Few members on high-resolution grid o Many members on coarse-resolution grid o Single model with perturbations or multiple models o Choice of analysis around which perturbations are made

3. Ensemble Configuration Define the configuration (i.e. namelists and scripts) to setup and run ensembles for optimal results including best options of: o Grid resolution o Number of members o Perturbations o Etc.

4. Goals Flexibility o A system that can emulate ensembles like those run at GSD, NCAR, AFWA, EMC, CAPS, University of WA, FSU, RENCI, etc. Portability o Multiple computing platforms to perform testing and evaluation Transfer to operations o Work toward NEMS compatibility o First R2O: NCEP operations

5. Basic Infrastructure Begin with community codes DTC already supports Define requirements: o Domains o Horizontal and vertical spacing o Output formats o Output fields Provide scripts to setup and run an ensemble so that testing may begin to address science issues

6. Configuration Module – Overview Module 1 Configuration Module Setup Phase WPS namelist WRF namelist WPP namelist MET configs Generates Static Files Sets Paths etc… Member 1 Member 2 Member 3 Member 4 Member N Writes namelists & configs Run Phase

7. Configuration Module - Setup Phase Config File specifies module options Module 1 Configuration Module Writes Workflow Manager XML Writes namelists & configs WPS namelist WRF namelist WPP namelist MET configs Generates Static Files Sets Paths etc… Module 2 – IC/BC Perturbations Module 3 – Physics Perturbations Option 1: no perturbations Option 2: ETKF Option 3: Simple Interpolation etc… Option 1: no perturbations Option 2: Different physics with each member Option 3: Stochastic perturbations etc… Module 4 – Statistical Post-Processing Module 5 – Products/Display Module 6 - Verification Option 1: no post-processing Option 2: Bias correction Option 3: Bayesian etc… Option 1: no products Option 2: mean, spread, min, max Option 3: Probability Matching etc… Option 1: no verification Option 2: Traditional Statistics Option 3: Spatial Statistics etc…

8. Configuration Module - Run Phase Module 1 Configuration Module Runs Workflow Manager Module 4 Statistical Post-Processing Module 5 Products/ Display Module 6 Verification Module 2 IC/BC Perturbations Module 3 Physics Perturbations

9. Examples of Existing Ensembles Operational systems o NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast o AFWA Joint Ensemble Forecast System Research systems o ESRL Hydrometeorology Testbed Ensemble o CAPS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (HWT) o NCAR Joint Mesoscale Ensemble o University of Washington Ensemble o RENCI Ensemble

10. Configure Scripts to Consider Workflow Manager JME configuration scripts WRF Portal / Domain Wizard GUIs CAPS management scripts (K. Thomas) NCAR-RTFDDA Ensemble Member Selection Tool

11. First Year Deliverables Basic Infrastructure Run ensemble Answer scientific questions…

12. Questions Are there any ensemble systems that we should also include? If so, who is a contact person?