1. Enrolment Projections 2010-12 Finalisation of cost units for ACHRAM Enrolment Projections 2010-12 Finalisation of cost units for ACHRAM Department of Information & Strategic Analysis August 2009 Department of Information & Strategic Analysis August 2009

2. Background Shift in recent year’s basis for allocation of cost units –From historical/initial targets –To projected (in line with enrolment planning) DSPQA commissioned DISA to develop a predictive model by which to forecast departmental enrolments for the period 2009-11 last year and again this year for the period 2010-12

3. Predictive model: 2 elements 1.Mechanistic linear forecast, 2010-12 –Based on historical trends of provisional departmental course counts over the five-year period, 2005-9 –Long and short range option for 2010 forecast: 2005-9 or 2008-9, depending on uniformity of trends –R 2 statistic: compares actual and estimated values 1 = perfect correlation (estimates can be 100% explained in terms of historical trend) 0 = no correlation eg if R 2 =,75 then only75% of estimates can be explained in terms of the historical trend and the remaining 25% must be explained in terms of extraneous factors

4. Predictive model: 2nd element 2.Analytic forecast, 2010-12 Based on particular knowledge, insights and experience of internal and external factors (elaborated later) which explain historical and predicted deviations from the linear trend Reference Points: –Total college trends –Total school trends –Total module trends

5. Process 1.Examine mechanistic forecast –Determine long or short range for 2010 –Explain deviations from linear projection, drawing from checklist or adding to this 2.Apply analytic forecast –Where appropriate, provide convincing rational for deviating from predicted forecast, mindful of R 2 and drawing from checklist or adding to this –Predict % growth for 2010, 2011 & 2012 –Once agreed, this is captured electronically

6. Supply and demand factors Market demand (economic cycle, changing needs, relevance) Marketing Competition Policy (eg new NSC) Pricing Partnerships Quality, relevance and service delivery (Academic and Operational) Student retention, activity and satisfaction

7. Academic structure factors Comprehensiveness Modules changes Tuition model changes Qualification changes Prerequisite changes Departmental changes Success and throughput patterns

8. Notes Unit of analysis: department HEMIS (2005-8) and adjusted Provisional (2009) course counts used 2008 pilot successful

9. Acknowledgements The following staff members of DISA provided invaluable help and support in preparing the information and this presentation: Herman Visser Herbert Zemann