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The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson
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The EGG Project (aka the Global Consciousness Project) International collaboration 75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, … Network of host sites world wide The tools: FieldREG technology … Make an EEG for the earth, an Electrogaiagram Engaging moments of global events The question: Can we capture a Glimmering of Global Consciousness?
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Homepage Status Day Sum Results Extract Magic Buttons Primary Links Menu at Bottom http://noosphere.princeton.edu Berger: Web Design
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The technology is only now available Electronics, Computers, Networking REG/RNG devices run continuously Synchronized computers and software Internet transfer of data to central server Automatic archiving, public access Formal analyses and explorations Background, methods, poetic history
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A Random Event Generator (REG or RNG)
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How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random source Each trial is the sum of 200 bits
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The binomial distribution of 1000 200-bit trials, compared with Theoretical normal distribution expected
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Composing the data as a Random Walk (A Drunkard’s Walk)
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When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you are all in accord, it becomes. - - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950
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A Real-Time Display (Bierman)
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Here we see the combined data for a whole day, from 48 eggs
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We can see better what’s happening by plotting cumulative deviations Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads
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For most of the formal predictions We specify a “Standard Analysis” Normalized signed deviation of mean, z i = (m i - )/ Composite across eggs: Stouffer Z s = ( z i )/N 1/2 Composite Z is squared for 2 distributed statistic Large cumulative sum of Z s 2 – 1 or 2 – df Reflects inter-egg correlation, or Consistent large deviations, or both
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Cumulative sum of its expectation May show a trend if there is a common Influence or correlation among the eggs
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Major disasters that engage us powerfully Often correlate with big deviations
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Context explorations: Six hours of data Around the beginning of bombing in Kosovo Cumulative deviation of Z s 2 or 2
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The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east: An occasion of hope for resolution of differences
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Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of interest to the EGG
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We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations with astrologically determined “hot” times
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An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zones Cumulative excess deviation of means Weak Replication Model Prediction
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A major alternative analysis Variance of the scores Sum of z i 2 -1 across eggs is 2 with N df Equivalent to variance 2 of egg scores Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction
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Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction Reduction of Variance across eggs Odds, GMT
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New Years 2000-2001: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed
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New Years 2001-2002: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed 5-Min Smoothing Window
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The destruction of the World Trade Towers Sept 11 2001 A 50-hour trend followed the attacks
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Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom
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Radin: Odds against chance For variance excursion on Sept 11 The real data vs pseudorandom data Data from EGG networkPseudorandom clone data
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Shoup: examining a larger context Comparing Sept 11 vs four months of days
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Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11 Structure where there should be none
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Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11 MeasureProbability estimateComparison standard Composite deviation0.003Resampling: 400 days Inter-node correlation0.0002Student t: 400 days Device variance peak0.0009Permutation: control p = 0.756 Autocorrelation0.00160 control days: p > 0.05 News correlation0.002Student t: 365 days Diurnal variation 0.30Time series: 365 days
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Bottom line: the full formal database 113 global events over 4 years
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What do we have in hand? Where do we want to go with it? Four years of data 50 eggs around the world More than 100 formal studies About 65% positive outcome About 20% individually significant Many analyses remain to be done
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Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration? Sharpen and focus our questions Aim for theoretical understanding Capture insight about creative mind Consider evidence that we are one Contribute to better future for culture
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We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together? -- Parker Palmer, educator http://noosphere.princeton.edu
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