1. 3/8/20161 The Strategy, Prediction, and Knowledge To Win Elections.

2. Key Concepts Targeting Turnout Voting History Party Performance Base Swing Persuadables (not same a Independents) 3/8/20162

3. 3 Strategy describes who is going to vote for you and why. Targeting determines strategy; making campaign decisions rational and manageable. If you’re a gambler, targeting allows you in “playing the percentages.”

4. 3/8/20164 Targeting prioritizes three fundamental campaign resources TIME MONEYPEOPLE

5. 3/8/20165 Birds of a Feather, Flock Together! If you Want to Catch Fish, Fish where the Fish Are! Past Behavior is the Best Indicator of Future Behavior!

6. 3/8/20166 REGISTER: Change the nature of the electorate PERSUADE: Persuade those open to new information GOTV: Motivate unmotivated voters who are reluctant

7. 3/8/20167 Not Everyone Registers, Votes, Cares, or Listens! Don’t Underestimate the voters’ intelligence. Never Overestimate their interest in politics.

8. 3/8/20168 WHO IS BEING TARGETED? Soccer moms? Nascar dads? Newly registered voters? Soft Democrats? Middle Class families? Union Members? Voters from certain precincts or wards? WHY, WHERE, HOW, AND WHEN?

9. 3/8/20169 Message Selection Paid Media Placement & Timing Schedule Decisions Free Media: Location & Outlets Field Choices Get Out the Vote Activities TARGETING SHOULD INFLUENCE EVERY CAMPAIGN DECISION!

10. 3/8/201610 GEOGRAPHY: PREVIOUS ELECTION RESULTS: TURNOUT PATTERNS:

11. 3/8/201611

12. 3/8/201612 DEMOGRAPHY: CENSUS DATA: AUDIT OF CANVAS:

13. 3/8/201613 LIST CREATION: VOTER FILES MEMBER FILES

14. 3/8/201614 1.LIKE YEARS A.2004 and 2008 B. 1996 and 2010 2.LIKE ELECTIONS A. 1996 and 2004 B. 2000 and 2008 3.LIKE COMPETITIVENESS A. Similarity of Candidates’ Styles, Politics, etc. B. Up-Ballot Races, Issues on ballot

15. 3/8/201615 4. REGISTRATION TRENDS & DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES 5. BALLOT INITIATIVES Hot Issues and Referendums NOTE: Rural: High Turnout Urban: Likely to Change Election to Election

16. 3/8/201616 1. SURGE 2. COATTAILS 3. DROP OFF 4. BANDWAGON 5. VOTE HISTORY 6. MOBILITY [ Read More ] [ Read More ]

17. 3/8/201617 GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION RACE INCOME/EDUCATION PARTY IDEOLOGY GENDER PROFESSION ISSUES/ATTITUDES

18. 3/8/201618 Microtargeting Tracks individual voters and identifies potential supporters rather than in groups. Tailors messages to demographic subgroups. May require a large database Matches vote history to other factors. In it’s largest iteration, tracks voters’ consumer habits including subscriptions, TV preferences, liesure activities, etc.

19. 3/8/201619 Microtargeting Added to this is political activity data: –Voting history, contributions, etc. Run through GIS (Geographic Information System) for region-based trends. Consumer preferences overlayed on geography and political activity allow for detailed targeting of individuals rather than groups!

20. 3/8/201620 Microtargeting Married woman, 28 –Merchandising exec. –Owns home in Fairfax –Subscribes to Time, Parenting –Married with 1 child, 2 –Has frequent flier acct with 3 airlines –Contributes to NRA, VARTL –Votes in Prez Years Voter Profile –Married women <30 –Business professionals –Exurban Home owners –Time readers w/Kids –Pre-School children –Regular traveler –Conservative –Votes Republican

21. 3/8/201621 TOTAL EXPECTED TURNOUT = - Current Reg. X Expected Turnout Determine the Democratic & Republican Base Vote Quantify the Swing Vote and Describe its segments WHERE DO YOU STAND?

22. Hi-performance precincts: –Better than 50% vote for your party. –Register, GOTV Lo-performance precincts: –Less than 50% support –Persuasion, microtargeting 3/8/201622

23. 3/8/201623 Regular Voters Occasional Voters Non-Voters Your Supporters Swing Voters Opponent’s Supporters

24. Precinct 1: Adult Population: 1500 Registered Voters: 500 (33%) Average Total Turnout: 400 (80%) Average Party Turnout: 320 (80%)

25. Precinct 2: Adult Population: 516 Registered Voters: 500 (98%) Average Total Turnout: 375 (75%) Average Party Turnout: 140 (40%)

26. Precinct 3: Adult Population: 1000 Registered Voters: 500 (50%) Average Total Turnout: 250 (50%) Average Party Turnout: 100 (40%)

27. Precinct: 4: Adult Population: 833 Registered Voters: 500 (60%) Average Total Turnout: 300 (60%) Average Party Turnout: 240 (80%)

28. Precinct: 5: Adult Population: 1000 Registered Voters: 500 (50%) Average Total Turnout: 400 (80%) Average Party Turnout: 320 (80%)

29. Precinct: 6 Adult Population: 625 Registered Voters: 500 (80%) Average Total Turnout: 300 (60%) Average Party Turnout: 180 (60%)

30. Precinct: 7 Adult Population: 1500 Registered Voters: 500 (33%) Average Total Turnout: 400 (80%) Average Party Turnout: 132 (33%)

31. 3/8/201631 Target Persuadable Voters: –Identify Ticket Splitters –Calculate persuadable voters by Geographic and Demographic segment Where Do You Want To Go?

32. 3/8/201632 Identify and Hold Base Appeal to Independent Voters in strongly partisan precincts Appeal to Independents in Democratic households WHERE DO YOU NEED TO GO?

33. 3/8/201633 Appeal to pure Independents in midrange of 40- 60% performance precincts Vote Goal= (Turnout by Segment) X (Performance by Segment) Additional Factors: Absentee Voting, Early Voting, Vote by Mail, and Emergency Voting WHERE DO YOU NEED TO GO?

34. 3/8/201634 VOTER REGISTRATION: –Voting age population x High Party Performance= Registration Potential. –In high performing precincts take the: V.A.P. – Current Registration X High Party % = Registration Performance GOTV: Identify low turn-out precincts in high Party Performance areas WHERE DO YOU NEED TO GO?

35. 3/8/201635 Blind Pull Areas- Whole Precincts Targeted Pull Areas- –Select Groups Demographic Appeal –Voter ID –Voter History –Previous Persuasion Activities

36. 3/8/201636 1.ESTABLISH EARLY CREDIBILITY a.Endorsements b.Press c.Opinion Leader Outreach d.Fundraising e.Poll Numbers f.Describe Path to Victory 2.CREATE A BASE a. Describe & identify both your & your opponent’s base

37. 3/8/201637 3. IDENTIFY UNKNOWNS 4. PERSUADE UNKNOWNS 5. RE-ID 6. BANDWAGON VOTERS 7. GOTV 8. WIN