1. Sustainability Winter 2009 Class 12 Jeff Fletcher

2. Plan Logistics –Read for next time: Who Will Bring Water to the Bolivian Poor? Who Will Bring Water to the Bolivian Poor? –By JUAN FORERO Follow-up on Confuse Ch. 14 & Wrap-up of Collapse Flow the movie Water Footprint Report

3. In Groups Again Does knowing more about Julian Morris’ background and funding sources change your opinion of his “legitimate” or “illegitimate” points that you previously identified? How import are the sources of ideas you vs. the ideas themselves? How much should we rely on “experts” and how can we adequately identify them? –For every issue there are multiple sides, but does that mean they are equally valid? How do we decide which are better?

4. Ch 14: Roadmap to Collapse Groups may fail to anticipate a problem before a problem arrives –examples When the problem does arrive, the group may fail to perceive it –examples After they perceive it, they may fail to even try to solve it –examples They may try to solve it but may not succeed –examples

5. Mental Illusions Analogy to Optical Illusions –From the first day of class—what did this mean? –Ways of thinking (and emotional responses) that are useful in some situations (e.g. on the savanna) may be less adaptive in modern life –For example: Defending territory through warfare Nuclear arms Many of the reasons Diamond gives are of this type In small groups identify reasons he discusses that could be examples of “mental illusions” –Problems with how humans think about certain problems

6. Mental Illusions Examples 1 Over generalizing (“False analogy”) –Opposite of no prior experience –“Fighting the last war” Slow trends, especially buried in noisy fluctuations –Creeping normalcy; landscape amnesia –Frog in the cooking pot Harm is spread out (few benefit) –Problem is good for some special interests –War; cost plus contracting; “Bridge to nowhere” Sunk cost effects –Hard to forget past—start from now –In many situations remembering the past is good –Change is difficult

7. Mental Illusions Examples 2 Short term vs. long term –Discounting the future (economics & psychology) –’73 oil crisis or recent gas prices Group decision making, “crowd psychology”, “group think” –Not the sum of individual abilities or ideas Psychological denial –Dam example p. 436 –Current US consumption? Susceptibility to a good story –Urban legends –Crop circles, big foot, Darwin awards, etc.

8. Tragedy of the Commons “rational behavior” Inability to control/predict others Solutions –Government regulation –Private Ownership –Local control (government) “Mutually agreed upon coercion”

9. Wrap-up Role of Good Leadership –Kennedy: Bay of Pigs vs. Missile Crisis –Other examples –How do societies increase their chances of having good leaders? What lessons from Collapse came up in your writing/discussions in last mentor session?

10. For Next Time Flow the film –http://www.flowthefilm.com/http://www.flowthefilm.com/ Read for next time: –Who Will Bring Water to the Bolivian Poor?Who Will Bring Water to the Bolivian Poor? By JUAN FOREROStart on water footprints –Go over handout on Water Footprint