2. DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

3. A FOCUS ON MONITOTING SYSTEMS, PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS, WARNING SYSTEMS, AND EVACUATION A PART OF DISASTER PREPAREDNESS

4. PURPOSE: Predictions and forecasts of natural hazards communicated effectively through warning systems facilitate development of city evacuation plans to move people out of harm’s way

5. COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY IENCE FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE

6. DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--- A COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC POLICIES ALLOW IT TO BE … UN—PREPARED

7. GLOBAL GOAL: FROM UN—PREPARED TO A STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

8. NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICAL FLOODS HURRICANES TYPHOONS TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY

9. NOTE: EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IS NOT YET FEASIBLE; SO EVACUATION IS NOT AN OPTION TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY FOR EARTHQUAKES

10. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES, PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS, AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF EVERY CITY’S EVACUATION PLAN

11. TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR FLOODS

12. FLOODS IN S. CALIFORNIA: A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

13. FLOODS IN CHINA: A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

14. IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODS

15. LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

16. TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR HURRICANES AND TYPHOONS

17. HURRICANE ANDREW: A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN WHERE WILL THE HUR- RICANE MAKE LANDFALL? HOW BIG (CAT)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE HUR- RICANE MAKE LANDFALL? HOW BIG (CAT)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

18. TYPHOON TALAS: A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN WHERE WILL THE TY- PHOON MAKE LANDFALL? HOW BIG (CAT)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE TY- PHOON MAKE LANDFALL? HOW BIG (CAT)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

19. IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANES AND TYPHOONS

20. WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE HURRICANES TYPHOONS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

21. TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR TSUNAMIS

22. TSUNAMI (JAPAN): A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

23. TSUNAMIS M 7 or larger earthquakes that occur on “the Pacific ring of fire” can cause:  Tsunamis

24. IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH TSUNAMIS

25. HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

26. TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

27. VOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? DURATION? HOW BIG (VEI)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? DURATION? HOW BIG (VEI)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

28. MOUNT PINATUBO, THE PHILIPPINES: LARGE VERTICAL PLUMES AND LAHARS

29. IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

30. PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

31. TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR WILDFIRES

32. WILDFIRE (GREECE): A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? LOCATION? DURATION? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? LOCATION? DURATION? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

33. IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH WILDFIRES

34. LIGHTNING STRIKES WILDFIRES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT) DRYNESS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER DISASTER LABORATORIES

35. FROM A DISASTER SCENARIO TO EVACUATION TO PUBLIC POLICY A disaster scenario accelerates dialogue on the best ways to get people out of harm’s ways, and policies and plans for doing it when it counts most.

36. EVACUATION PLANNING IS A “24/7” EFFORT PREPAREDNESS (BE READY) PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) EMER. RESPONSE & RECOVERY (BOUNCE BACK) PREPAREDNESS (BE READY) PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) EMER. RESPONSE & RECOVERY (BOUNCE BACK)

37. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IS A “24/7” EFFORT MONITORING (FACILITATES EARLY WARNING, EVACUATION, AND INTERVENTION TO PROTECT PEOPLE AND PROPERTY)