1. An Integrated, Interdisciplinary & Multi-Method Process for Building Climate Readiness in Coastal Communities Erin Seekamp 1 Mae Davenport 2 Jordan Smith 1 Social Coast Forum February 19, 2014 Charleston, SC 1 2

2.  Socio-ecologic systems (SES) subject to natural hazards  Climate change impacts increase exposure (Adger et al. 2005) Rationale Sept ‘11 Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, MN (abcnews.go.com) November ‘02, Duluth, MN (glerl.noaa.gov)

3.  Coastal communities more dependent on natural resources-based industries  US Coastal Counties (including Great Lakes) Rationale

4.  Tourism-dependent coastal communities especially susceptible  Nature-based tourism affected by travel decisions  Risk perceptions of climatic & ecological change  altered recreation demand & threatened community vibrancy (Mendelsohn & Markowski 2004; Scott et al. 2007) Rationale June ‘08 Grand Maras, MN (bwcaboard.com)

5. Rationale  Need: Assess community resilience  Incorporate destination risk models  Inventory adaptive capacity  Goal: Build climate readiness 6/12/12 & 6/20/12 Gooseberry Falls State Park, MN (dnr.state.mn.us)

6.  Assess adaptive capacity  Model climate-hydrologic impacts  Develop ecological destination risk scenarios  Measure & model tourism demand  Develop sociological destination risk scenarios  Integrate data into SES destination risk scenarios  Create & deliver decision-support tools for adaptive planning Multi-Method Approach

7. Study Area 5.76 million person-visits 2/3 active recreation $1 billion in travel-related expenditures 25,000 full-time equivalent jobs (Davidson-Peterson Associates, 2008).

8. Adaptive Capacity Assessments Inventory Secondary Data Collection Discovery Interviews Reflection Focus Groups Prioritization & Action Workshops Community Adaptive Capacity- Building Strategies Community/System Critical Capacities & Constraints Stakeholder Partnerships Community Adaptive Capacity Assessment & Synthesis Rapid Assessment Tools Adaptive Capacity Assessment Products and Outcomes Increased awareness of community/system assets & sensitivities Enriched understanding of community/system capacities & constraints Strategic capacity-building for community adaptation Enhanced climate readiness in community & recreation/tourism system planning & management Community/System Assets & Sensitivities

9. SummerWinter Average air temperature (highs/lows) Average stream temperatureAverage snow depth Average inland lake temperatureEstimated lake freeze date Occurrence of forest fireEstimated lake thaw date Average days of rainNumber of days of snow Average trout catch rate (trout)Average ice fishing catch rate Average days of beach closureNumber of seasonal Number of road/bridge washoutsUnsafe ice-related deaths Number of seasonal flooding-related deaths Seasonal Variables of Interest

10. Tourism Demand  Seasonal Tourist Surveys  MN State Parks & Superior NF  3 summer, 3 winter scenarios  1 scenario per treatment  Measures  Current trip characteristics & expenditures  Likelihood of future visits (certainty)  Willingness-to-pay local tax/user fee for access/maintenance  Climate change perceptions  Demand Modeling  Estimate proportional responses to each scenarios at each sampling location  Response Modeling  Historic economic trends  Future trends

12. Geovisualization: Decision-support 2014 2050

13.  Hosted by PAT in each community  Explore action steps to build capacity  Prepare for & respond to climate change impacts  Near-term, long-term and no regrets actions.  Facilitated discussions  Examine resource availability and key assets  Describe the community’s climate readiness strengths & weaknesses  Consider predictions of destination risk  Identify resource needs for adaptation Capacity Building Workshops

14. Integrated Process Adaptive Capacity Assessments Integrated Destination Risk Scenario Development Geovisualization & Capacity Building Workshops Participatory Action Team Interview data Focus group data Climate- hydrologi c data Tourism economic data Tourism behavior data Vulnerability mapping Climate action planning Asset Mapping data

15.  University of Minnesota:  Mae Davenport (Social Scientist)  John Nieber (Hydrologist)  Bruce Wilson (Hydro-climatologist)  Cynthia Messer (Tourism)  NC State University  Erin Seekamp (Social Scientist)  Jordan Smith (Social Scientist & Geospatial Analytics)  Carleton College  Mark Kanazawa (Natural Resource Economist) Interdisciplinary Research Team

16. Contact Information  Erin Seekamp, NC State University, erin_seekamp@ncsu.edu  Mae Davenport, U Minnesota, mdaven@umn.edu  Jordan Smith, NC State University, jordan_smith@ncsu.edu Questions