1. Our Asian Crisis Track Record : Both Bear Forecast Hang Seng Would Fall to 8,000 Underweighted Market When Consensus “Maximum” Bullish

2. Thailand 1996 200 600 1000 1400 - 77% Buy First to Call Thailand a Sell : 14 Months Before Asian Crisis 199619971998 Sell 200 600 1000 1400 1997 1998 After the Initial Crisis : Double Underweight 250 350 450 550 650 750 250 350 450 550 650 750 Sell - 39% Over 3 Months -53% Over 12 Months Indonesia 1997 - 1998

3. Warned Against Red Chip Mania First to Call Hong Kong an Asset Bubble 12 Months Before it Burst

4. … And Bull Calls Heavily Over Weighted Asia’s Only Positive Performer Over 1996-1997 First to Call China Recovery 1200 1600 2000 2400 + 74% China 1998 - 2001 1998 1999 2000 2001 1200 1600 2000 2400

5. Source: DATASTREAM Safer Haven : Overweighted Asia’s Only Market to End 1998 Higher Favourite Market : Best Asian Performer over 15 Months

6. Source: DATASTREAM Caught Thai Rebound Sold Ahead of Disappointment 200 250 350 450 550 Thailand 1998 - 1999 Sell Buy + 68% 1998 1999 200 250 350 450 550 Sell Indonesia 1999 + 40% Over 3 Months Also Rupiah + 25% Buy Caught Indonesian Rebound Sold Ahead of Disappointment 1999 2000 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750