1. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE The Energy Mix for a Sustainable Future Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency World Bank Energy Week Washington, 7 March 2006

2. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Business-as-usual Scenario Based on current trends global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 1970198019902000201020202030 Mtoe Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear power Other renewables Hydro power

3. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE This is Not Sustainable!

4. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Oil Exports to Key Demand Centers All the key oil demand centers will become more dependent on imports as the Middle East and North Africa plays an increasing role in global supply

5. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

6. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity 1.4 billion people without electricity

7. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE “We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“ -- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”

8. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Global CO 2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios Policies that governments are already considering – but have not yet enacted – would cut CO 2 emissions by 16% in 2030

9. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions: Coal Fired Electricity Generation in China

10. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO 2 per Year CoalCoal Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means….. Wind Install 200 x current US wind generation Solar PV Install 1300 x current US solar generation CO 2 Sequestration Install 1000 Sleipner CO 2 sequestration plants Nuclear Build 150 1-GW power plants Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004 Efficient Lighting Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out)

11. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Key Messages There is no single solution for a sustainable energy future There is no single solution for a sustainable energy future A broad portfolio is needed but some features are clear: A broad portfolio is needed but some features are clear:  Energy Efficiency … available now at low or no cost !  Natural Gas, Coal … with CO2 capture & storage  Biofuels, Renewables … with lower costs  Nuclear.… with safe waste management  H 2 & Fuel Cells … with lower cost  Fusion … maybe, in the very long term